$400k Tampa Bay Derby

$400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 11 (Saturday, March 9, 2019: 5:25 p.m./ET; 2:25 p.m./PT)
Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-olds)

STREET SENSE won the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby (G1) and went on to earn international stardom and earn a stall in the breeding shed with his lucrative win in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Fast forward a dozen years and we’ve got eleven three-year-old colts and geldings look to follow in his footsteps:

#1 ADMIRE broke his maiden in November going two turns at Churchill Downs, then finished fifth in the Withers (G3), his most recent start to date. Has an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern, but will need to run a career best to win.

#2 SIR WINSTON won the Display Stakes over Woodbine’s synthetic main track surface before a fourth place finish behind TAX in the Withers (G3). Is two-for-three on synthetics and zero-for-two on dirt.

#3 LOUD DRAGON broke his maiden over this track by a narrow neck and sports a bullet work heading into this race for Florida-based trainer Jordan Blair. In deep waters.

#4 DREAM MAKER has always been well regarded. A royally bred colt trained by Mark Casse, this dude broke his maiden at first asking by three lengths. His next two starts, both against stakes company, were off-the-board efforts. He then took a freshening and came back as a stronger, more powerful colt, and kicked off his 2019 year with an eight-length romp in an allowance race. The second place finisher in that event, COURTYARD, came right back to win an allowance race himself. If he runs his best, there’s reason to believe he can do damage.

#5 WELL DEFINED added blinkers in his last start, went to the lead and finished strongly to the wire for an impressive two-and-three-quarter length score in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Should be taken seriously.

#6 OUTSHINE makes his two-turn debut after an allowance victory over #8 THE RIGHT PATH going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Joel Rosario rides for the first time. Breeding and talent is there for him to be a solid horse.

#7 WIN WIN WIN was a dominant seven length winner over this track in his last start on January 19 and freshens up for his first try at a route of ground. His pedigree (by HAT TRICK out of a SMARTY JONES mare) says extra distance shouldn’t be an issue, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. hops aboard, which only adds to the appeal. If he can get the distance, he has a big chance.

#8 THE RIGHT PATH makes his second start of a three-month break. He comes off a third place finish behind #6 OUTSHINE in a Gulfstream Park allowance last month and runs two turns for the first time. Might be a notch below the best signed on.

#9 DUNPH suffered a 15-length defeat in the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds. His best win came going one turn in a Kentucky-bred, seven-furlong restricted stake as a two-year-old. Looking elsewhere.

#10 TACITUS runs on Lasix for the first time for trainer Bill Mott (who spots this horse aggressively off a four month layoff). He is a royally bred Juddmonte homebred by TAPIT and is the first foal out of the Grade I winning mare and champion 2014 older mare CLOSE HATCHES. Interesting.

#11 ZENDEN makes his first start going a route of ground. His most recent run, a second place finish in the seven-furlong Swale (G3), was a solid effort. But he’ll need to work out a good trip from this outside post position.

SELECTIONS 1. #7 WIN WIN WIN – A serious racehorse.

2. #5 WELL DEFINED – Added blinkers and won the Sam F. Davis (G3).

3. #4 DREAM MAKER – His best gives him a shot.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#10 TACITUS – Beautifully bred colt.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #7 WIN WIN WIN