Thursday, October 11, 2018

PLAY WITH TVG, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13TH

TIME TO PLAY

All work makes for a dull person, so spend some time relaxing this weekend and firing up your TVG account to wager on some exciting racing action all across North America! For exclusive TVG E-News analysis and selections for the $800,000 Canadian International (G1) from Woodbine, click here. For exclusive TVG E-News analysis and selections for the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II (G1) from Keeneland, click here. For exclusive TVG E-News analysis and selections for the $100,000 Floral Park from Belmont Park, click here. For exclusive TVG E-News analysis and selections for the $100,000 California Distaff from Santa Anita, click here.

BRING HOME THE BACON

Simply pick the winners (one choice per race) in all eight designated races in our FREE ‘Super 8’ contest this Saturday and you’ll win plenty of dough ($100,000 cash to be exact)! It’s that easy, and even if you don’t correctly select all eight winners, consolation pools exist for those players who get five or more correct. Visit TVG.com or 4NJBets.com for more information.

ALL MONTH LONG

There’s nothing spooky about our unique Money Back Special Fall Festival for Keeneland, Belmont Park and Santa Anita from now until Halloween! Simply put, no tricks and nothing but treats when you opt-in first at TVG.com or 4NJBets.com, then make a win bet on designated races and automatically receive a refund on your first win wager (up to $10) if your horse finishes second (if the race has six or more betting interests) or third (if the race has at least eight betting interests).

GET READY

The Breeders’ Cup is exactly one month away, but TVG wants to help you build up your Racing Championship’s wagering bankroll before the big event! To participate, wager at a least $150 on Mondays, Tuesdays or Wednesdays this month, and for every day you do so, TVG will credit your account with a Breeders’ Cup bounty of $10 (up to a maximum of $90 for the promotion period). It’s that easy and it’s available at TVG or 4NJBets!

MATE, LOOK AT THIS

Add some thunder to your winnings down under with a 15% Exacta bonus on all Australian races through Melbourne Cup Day (November 5th)! All races and tracks from Australia are eligible, and you can earn up to a maximum of $50 each day. Simply opt in and the sooner you do, the sooner you’ll start earning your Australia racing exacta bonuses!

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PLAYING BARN CHANGES

It is common handicapping advice to avoid playing horses that have switched from a winning barn to a losing one, even if the horse left the winning outfit in career best form. However, there are other instances when the barn change could be positive. Further still, there are times when it is nothing more than a logistics move that probably doesn’t matter at all.

In the claiming ranks, a handful of trainers know how to consistently win, and the others win only sporadically. Horses that win for a strong trainer will usually not perform as well for the less talented connections. A low percentage trainer that acquires a horse from a top outfit is far more likely to end up dropping the horse in claiming price in search of a win. But it is rare to see a horse win a claiming race for a top outfit, get claimed by a low percentage stable and win again. The game would be all too easy if all losing barns needed to do was claim someone else’s winner and simply re-enter them. Keeping a horse in winning form is difficult. High percentage trainers do it better than low percentage trainers. Additionally, the recent claim is usually required to run for a higher tag, making it even harder to win. Even worse, a last-out winner is usually over-bet by the public. As a rule, bettors who pass on all of these situations only miss underlaid winners.

When top notch stables drop an expensive horse to the claiming ranks and no-name connections bite, don’t expect the midas touch. If Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill, Bill Mott or Todd Pletcher can’t win with the horse, their evaluation of the horse’s future ability, regardless of how it fares in its claiming debut, is usually reliable. If the horse can’t perform for top trainers, losing connections are unlikely to be any more successful. For every great claim, there are a dozen that only head further down the claiming ladder as their career progresses.

But what if a horse switches from one top barn to another? Zayat Stables frequently switches their horses between Rudy Rodriquez and Bill Mott on the East coast and Mike Maker in Kentucky and Bob Baffert out West. And syndicates like West Point Thoroughbreds will move horses from one trainer to another to get the horse racing on a different circuit. These kind of moves are fairly common. When the owner doesn’t sell the horses but simply moves them amongst qualified trainers, it really shouldn’t hurt the horses’ performance. If anything, the change can be assumed to be for a major objective or to get the horse in races better suited for it. 

Another move seen with large outfits is moving horses between major and minor league branches of the same stable. Large outfits with dozens of horses often have runners at multiple levels of the racing ladder. When a horse is finding itself outrun at a big track and drops to a smaller venue, it often finds itself well spotted against the easier competition. Godolphin uses this approach own North America with Kiaran McLaughlin running the ‘major league’ east coast operation, and Dan Peitz running the ‘minor league’ stable at Oaklawn Park in the winter and the Kentucky circuit in the summer months. If the horse doesn’t change to a new owner, it is often an honest concession that the horse may be fit and in form, yet still needs to run in easier spots in order to find the winner’s circle.

On the other hand, when a horse begins at the minor leagues and shows fast-developing talent, it may get called up to the major leagues. The age of the horse is usually a factor. The older a horse is, the less likely there will be a big upside. A young horse can quickly develop and soar to new levels of success. The more experience a horse has, the more proven a commodity it is. Dramatic improvement in the late stages of any horse’s career is highly unlikely.

Requirements to Playing Barn Changes:

– Avoid playing any horse making its first start after moving to a trainer with a noticeably lower win percentage than its previous barn.

– Horses moving between decent trainers working for the same owner (but at different tracks) often do so because it gets them pointed towards more appropriate races, or key objectives in that part of the country. Such horses usually maintain form and often improve when properly spotted.

– With young, developing horses, improvement is more likely than with older, more seasoned runners.

 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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RECAP OF SELECTIONS FROM 09/29/18

Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita: A field of six with two well fancied runners didn’t exactly make many players think the race would create a big payoff, so when ACCELERATE and WEST COAST ran one-two leading to a $1.60 exacta payout, I was ok with not having it (I tried to beat WEST COAST in the exacta).

American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita: Similar to the Awesome Again (G1) stakes race, a heavy odds-on favorite in this race also looked mostly invincible, so when GAME WINNER  ($2.60) was seen in the winner circle, you can pretty much rest assured I had no winning tickets on him (I recommended playing GUNMETAL GRAY, who finished second).

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park: Unlike the two analyzed races at Santa Anita, there was a 5/1 winner in this race (CHANNEL MAKER, $12.00), which was fortunately one of my main contenders, resulting in cashing the $1 exacta that paid $14.30 five times.

Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park: If you were smart enough and bold enough to play DISCREET LOVER ($93.00), that was one great job of handicapping and congrats, but I could not have found that winner even with the result charts the next day!

The post RECAP OF SELECTIONS FROM 09/29/18 appeared first on TVG BLOG.

$100,000 California Distaff Handicap – Santa Anita

Race 8 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 7:00 p.m./ET; 4:00 p.m./PT)

Five furlongs on the turf (California-bred fillies and mares, three-years-old and upward)

The feature race on Saturday’s 10-race card is only the third time in Santa Anita history that a five furlong turf event will be run at The Great Race Place. It’s a short run to the first turn, so post position could be key. Let’s get to it:

#1 PRINCESS ROI cuts back in distance after a fourth place finish in the Solana Beach Stakes. Her only two career sprints came on the dirt with both efforts resulting in second place finishes against maiden special weight company. ‘Big money’ jockey Mike Smith retains the mount.

#2 HAILEY RACHELE makes her Cal-bred stakes debut after a head victory as the 3/5 favorite in a Cal-bred allowance race going five and a half furlongs on dirt at Los Alamitos. Her only career turf race came two starts ago when finishing fourth, beaten a length-and-a-quarter to #4 HELEN’S TIGER.

#3 BEAU SQUARE beat #4 HELEN’S TIGER on September 1 in an open company allowance race, sprinting this distance over the Del Mar turf. Two starts ago, she was defeated at the same condition by #5 MEET AND GREET, though keep in mind that the aforementioned run was coming off a four month vacation. Expect her to sit off the pace and make one run.

#4 HELEN’S TIGER was narrowly defeated by #3 BEAU SQUARE last time out, but she has never finished off the board in three career starts sprinting five furlongs on the turf (all of those occurring at Del Mar). Her only prior stakes effort resulted in a better than looked fourth place finish in 2017, finishing just a length behind #6 ISMELUCKY on the Los Alamitos dirt.

#5 MEET AND GREET came off a seven-and-a-half month layoff last time out and won an open company first level race, sprinting this five furlong turf distance at Del Mar. Trainer William E. Morey hits at a 24% clip with his trainees making their second start off a break between 61-180 days, while Drayden Van Dyke rides for the first time.

#6 ISMELUCKY cuts back from a mile to this five-furlong distance after a 27-length loss against allowance company at Golden Gate Fields. Her only two route tries have been poor, so she’ll be happy to get back to sprinting, but keep in mind that since winning the Barretts Debutante as a two-year-old, she has failed to be competitive in five stakes since.

#7 HOW ABOUT ZERO, the co 124 lb. highweight, won the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint when racing down the Santa Anita hillside course last year. Her three races since then have been poor, but two of those runs came routing on the turf and the third race was taken off the turf and moved to the main track. Her best races have come sprinting on the turf, so a rebound is possible.

#8 LATE ‘N LEFT makes her second start for trainer Bob Hess Jr. In her first start for the new barn, she finished third in an allowance race at Los Alamitos to the classy Bob Baffert trainee DIAMONDSANDPEARLS. However, this gal is winless from four starts on turf and her best races have come on dirt.

#9 S Y SKY makes her first start since July 3, 2017, but her trainer hits at an 18% clip with runners making their first start off a vacation longer than 180 days, plus it’s a sign of confidence that he enters this filly in a stakes race off the long break. Interesting.

#10 LOVE A HONEYBADGER has never run on turf, but trainer Peter Miller hits at 21% with runners making their first start on turf. This daughter of dirt sprinter BUSHWACKER is out of a stakes winning mare who was versatile and won one of three career turf races, while one winning sibling of ‘HONEYBADGER won a race on the sod.

#11 FAMILY GIRL is the other Peter Miller entrant signed on. This filly comes out of the same race as stablemate #10 LOVE A HONEYBADGER, where she finished fourth behind her. Her only turf try was an off the board finish, though keep in mind that the aforementioned run came going a route of ground. Top jockey Flavien Prat hops aboard for Miller and they win at a 26% clip together.

SELECTIONS

  1. #5 MEET AND GREET – Morey and Van Dyke as hot as anyone in So. Cal.
  2. #9 S Y SKY – Nice filly makes her 2018 debut.
  3. #4 HELEN’S TIGER – Merits respect in exotic wagers.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 HOW ABOUT ZERO – Has the most career earnings in the field.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box my top two selections in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #5 MEET AND GREET

$15 Exacta Box: #5 MEET AND GREET and #9 S Y SKY ($30).

The post $100,000 California Distaff Handicap – Santa Anita appeared first on TVG BLOG.

$800,000 Canadian International (G1) – Woodbine

Race 9 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 5:41 p.m./ET: 2:41 p.m./PT)

Mile and a half on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)

Four graded stakes events on the 11-race Woodbine card, highlighted by this prestigious Canadian Grade I event which attracted a competitive field of 11, with three European shippers and North American horses from top trainers like Chad Brown, Graham Motion and Mike Maker. We’ll begin our analysis from the inside post position:

#1 MARKITOFF went off at 30/1 in the Northern Dancer (G1) last month and finished fourth, beaten just a length, by #9 JOHNNY BEAR and #7 ENGLISH ILLUSION. The good news is he didn’t run that bad. The bad news is the field he finds here is much tougher than what he saw in the Northern Dancer (G1) plus he hasn’t won since nine starts ago.

#2 THUNDERING BLUE is one of three Europeans who ship in for this race. He went off at 1/2 in the Stockholm Cup International (G3) and easily defeated the competition. His one win from two career starts at this mile-and-a-half distance came in 2017, but his last try at this distance resulted in a nine-length loss at Ascot against Group 2 company. Note he will not run on Lasix, but is a first time gelding.

#3 KHAN (GER) ‘freaked’ in the Preis Von Europa (G1) in Germany going this mile-and-a-half distance on yielding turf, winning the race by six lengths at 20/1. Before that aforementioned huge effort, he had failed to hit the board in two Group 1’s and one Group 2 going this distance over good ground in Germany. He’ll need to fire just like he did 20 days ago to have any shot at winning this race.

#4 FUNTASTIC won a second level allowance race three starts ago and came back to win the United Nations (G1) at big odds of 23/1 for trainer Chad Brown, who had three other entrants in the race. After that Grade I triumph, this colt came back to run poorly in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing well behind GLORIOUS EMPIRE, next out Grade I winner CHANNEL MAKER and #6 SPRING QUALITY. The question is, can he run back to his UN (G1) form?

#5 TIZ A SLAM takes another crack at Grade I company after a sixth place finish in the Northern Dancer (G1), finishing behind #9 JOHNNY BEAR, #7 ENGLISH ILLUSION and #1 MARKITOFF. Not only does he need to rebound and defeat those three rivals, but he’ll also need to beat some tough shippers. Won’t be an easy task.

#6 SPRING QUALITY won the Manhattan (G1) three starts ago, then came back to run third in the Sword Dancer (G1). Both races were run over firm ground. Most recently, this horse raced on yielding turf in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and lost by almost forty lengths. It was a scary bad performance, yes, but there’s reason to believe he simply didn’t like the yielding ground. Trainer Graham Motion wouldn’t put this guy back in a race unless he was 100% fine, both physically and mentally. Fits with this group.

#7 ENGLISH ILLUSION beat #9 JOHNNY BEAR two starts ago in the Halton Stakes but was defeated by that rival in their most recent meeting in the Northern Dancer (G1), where he made up a ton of ground after being too far back in the first half of the race. He’s run two improved races in a row over this course since being claimed for just $45K.

#8 BANDUA faces older colts and geldings for the first time in his career. This three-year-old Calumet Farm owned colt comes off a fourth place finish behind next out winner CHANNEL CAT in the Dueling Ground Derby at Kentucky Downs. Two races ago, he ran third at 39/1 in the Secretariat Stakes (G1), finishing three lengths behind CARRICK and Grade I performer ANALYZE IT, who most recently ran fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

#9 JOHNNY BEAR repeated as the winner of the Northern Dancer (G1) at 16/1 last time out, making him a two-time winner of that popular race at Woodbine. But despite those accomplishments, he finished tenth and last in this race last year over soft going.

#10 DESERT ENCOUNTER (IRE) races on Lasix for the first time and rounds out the trio of Europeans. The six-year-old gelding was last seen running a close third in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (G3) at Newbury in Great Britain. Note four of his seven career wins have come going this mile and a half distance.

#11 FOCUS GROUP makes his graded stakes debut in this spot. The son of KITTEN’S JOY most recently won the Johns Call Stakes going a mile-and five-eighths on the turf. On class alone, he might be up against it, but it’s hard to count out Chad Brown in a big turf race and it’s encouraging that jockey Jose Ortiz, who’s ridden this guy in eight of his past 10 lifetime starts flies in to ride.

SELECTIONS

  1. #6 SPRING QUALITY – Could run big on firm turf.
  2. #11 FOCUS GROUP – Tough post, but Chad Brown trains.
  3. #10 DESERT ENCOUNTER – First time Lasix user loves this distance.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 ENGLISH ILLUSION – Been a different horse since being claimed.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a win bet on my top choice

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #6 SPRING QUALITY

 

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$100,000 Floral Park – Belmont Park

Race 8 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 4:43 p.m./ET; 1:43 p.m./PT)

Six furlongs on the inner turf (fillies and mares, three-year-olds and upward)

A full field of 12 distaff turf sprinters (plus two main track only also eligibles) are signed on to compete, with two Grade I placed fillies leading the list of competitors. Let’s try to pick the winner:

#1 ROCKY POLICY was fourth at 7/1 in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash at Laurel Park behind #5 FIRE KEY and #11 FEAR NO EVIL last time out over a yielding course. Her speed figures are a bit low compared to the best signed on in this race and it’s also worth noting she draws an undesirable rail post position. Won’t be easy for her to win.

#2 JC’S SHOOTING STAR lost by 10 lengths in the Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga, finishing behind #6 TILLIE’S LILY and #8 BATTLE JOINED. Her last win came against New York-bred competition four starts ago going this distance over this turf course. Manny Franco has been aboard this mare in her last five races but opts to ride #6 TILLIE’S LILY, so Eric Cancel picks up the mount. Others seem more intriguing. 

#3 LADY ALEXANDRA was terrific against boys in the Highlander (G1) at Woodbine two starts ago, finishing second behind Grade I winning foe LONG ON VALUE. Last time out, she raced on a synthetic surface in the Presque Isle Masters (G2) and faded down the stretch. She’s three-for-seven on turf, with all three turf victories coming over this Belmont turf course. The one to beat.

#4 ANNIE ROCKS was a no excuse fourth behind #12 BLACK CANARY in an allowance race last month over this turf course. She has yet to win in eight starts this year and has finished behind #12 BLACK CANARY and #11 FEAR NO EVIL in multiple races. Needs to pick up the pace.

#5 FIRE KEY won the Sensible Lady Turf Dash last time out, defeating #1 ROCKY POLICY, #9 ALWAYS THINKING and #11  FEAR NO EVIL in the process. Some of her best runs on turf have come over yielding turf and there is reason to believe the turf may be soft for this race considering rain is in the forecast on both Thursday and Friday. That said, she faces a tougher group than what she saw last time out. Mixed feelings.

#6 TILLIE’S LILY is lightly raced but no stranger to the winner’s circle, as this daughter of DISTORTED HUMOR has won four of five lifetime starts. Her first career loss came last time out in the Smart N Fancy Stakes, which was her stakes debut. That afternoon, she tried to sit in midpack and make one run but was unsuccessful in doing so, finishing sixth of 12. Usually she sits close to the pace, if not on the lead, so expect this gal to be forwardly placed this time. Wouldn’t discount for high percentage conditioner Jonathan Thomas.

#7 ORECCHIETTE has won three-of-four lifetime starts over the Belmont green, with all three victories coming at this six-panel distance. Her last win, a wire to wire allowance win as the favorite on September 8, was a beauty. Another entrant trained by Jonathan Thomas. Plenty of reasons to like this one.

#8 BATTLE JOINED freshens up after a better than looked fourth to classy mare CHANTELINE in the Smart N Fancy Stakes. For most of the race, she was farther behind in the field than she usually is and had to steady at the 5/16ths pole when trying to make a move. She eventually found a way out of traffic and came with a mild bid. But her previous races indicate she’ll need to run faster to beat the best in here. Siding with others.  

#9 ALWAYS THINKING is one of two Tom Albertrani trained runners in this race. She has finished off the board in her past eight starts, including last time out when she finished sixth in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash. Improvement needed.

#10 LULL won the Honey Fox (G3) going a mile at Gulfstream Park this winter. The versatile Christophe Clement trained filly was last seen finishing second by a head, as the even money favorite, in the Kentucky Ladies Turf Dash (G3) at Kentucky Downs. Keep in mind that just three starts ago, this gal only lost by a length and a half to top class filly A RAVING BEAUTY in the Just A Game (G1). Clearly she has the class to win this.

#11 FEAR NO EVIL lost by a head to #5 FIRE KEY in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash. The last time she raced over this course (three starts back), she won a second level allowance race going this distance. She has been very consistent in 2018, having hit the board in six of seven races.

#12 BLACK CANARY is the third daughter sired by WAR FRONT in this race and comes off a two length second level allowance win on September 14 going this distance over this turf course. She makes her stakes debut here, but she usually stalks the pace and should get a good trip drawn outside for a good jockey/trainer combo in Tyler Gaffelione and Mark Casse. One to consider.

#13 YORKIEPOO PRINCESS is an also eligible and entered for the main track only.

#14 POSSE NEEDED is another also eligible/main track only entrant.

 SELECTIONS

  1. #3 LADY ALEXANDRA – Her best race wins this.
  2. #10 LULL – Grade I placed mare merits respect.
  3. #12 BLACK CANARY – Nice effort over this course last time out.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 TILLIE’S LILLY – Win machine can rebound from last.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top selections over my other three picks in exactas and make a win bet on my longshot value play.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Exactas: #3 LADY ALEXANDRA over #10 LULL and #12 BLACK CANARY and #6 TILLIE’S LILLY ($30).

$20 Win: #6 TILLIE’S LILLY

 

The post $100,000 Floral Park – Belmont Park appeared first on TVG BLOG.

$500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) – Keeneland

Race 9 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 5:30 p.m./ET; 2:30 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the turf (three-year-old fillies)

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner RUSHING FALL looks to give super trainer Chad Brown another Grade I win in the most prestigious North American turf race for three-year-old fillies, while European invaders NYALETI and MISSION IMPASSIBLE look for the possible upset. Here’s how I see the race:

#1 NYALETI (IRE) comes in off a fifth place finish in a Group 2 race in Great Britain in late August. Her only career start in the U.S. came two races back in the Beverly D (G1), where she finished sixth behind SISTERCHARLIE and next out Grade I winner FOURSTAR CROOK. This race is a restricted 3-year-old event, as opposed to the Beverly D. which was a race for older fillies and mares. This is an easier spot, no doubt, and European runners usually fare well here. Worthy of respect.

#2 PRINCESS WARRIOR finished third behind #6 SECRET MESSAGE in the Pucker Up (G3) at Arlington and most recently ran second in the Dueling Ground Oaks at Kentucky Downs. Her only victory against winners came three starts ago in an allowance race at Ellis Park. An exotics placing may be her ceiling.

#3 FATALE BERE (FR) won the Del Mar Oaks (G1) by a neck, surging late to defeat Grade 2 winning filly OLLIE’S CANDY. The third place finisher in that race, CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH, came back to win the Sandspoint (G3) at Belmont Park. This filly is two-for-three when traveling this nine furlong distance and retains the services of Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeuax, who was aboard for her Del Mar Oaks (G1) triumph.

#4 DADDY IS A LEGEND most recently ran third in the Lake Placid (G2) behind #8 RUSHING FALL and #7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS at Saratoga over soft ground. Her best race to date came in the Lake George (G3) over firm ground two starts ago. With no rain in the forecast at Keeneland, this filly will be happy to get back to a firm course. Nonetheless, she’ll have to find a way to turn the tables on the two runners who finished in front of her last time out.

#5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE (IRE) is the second European entrant in the race. This Irish bred filly most recently finished fifth, beaten 7 lengths, in a Group 1 race in France going one mile on July 29. Two starts ago, she defeated two next out winners in a Group 2 for top French trainer Jean-Claude Rouget. It’s worth noting that in September of 2017, she defeated #3 FATALE BERE, when that foe was beginning her career across the pond. Interesting item.

#6 SECRET MESSAGE won the Pucker Up (G3) two starts ago on Arlington Million (G1) Day before coming back to finish second in the Sandspoint (G3) at Belmont. This is a much steeper field than what she’s seen in her most recent graded stakes tries, so she’ll need to put up a career best effort.

#7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (IRE) put up a poor performance in her most recent afternoon appearance, the Sandspoint (G2), in which she was defeated by Grade I placed mare CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH and Grade 3 winner #6 SECRET PASSAGE. She has finished behind #8 RUSHING FALL in two prior starts. Her only career win in North America came as a two-year-old in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine. Will try to beat.
#8 RUSHING FALL is five-for-six lifetime, with one second place finish. In other words, this gal shows up every single time. Most recently, the daughter of MORE THAN READY defeated #7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS and #4 DADDY IS A LEGEND in the Lake Placid (G2) over soft ground and is an impressive two-for-two over this Keeneland turf course with an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern throughout her career.

SELECTIONS

  1. #5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE – Invader is dangerous.
  2. #8 RUSHING FALL – All class.
  3. #3 FATALE BERE – Will be running on late

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 NYALETI – The ‘other’ European filly.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks and longshot value play in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

#5 Exacta Box: #5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE and #8 RUSHING FALL and #1 NYALETI ($30).

$20 Win: #5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE

 

 

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