Race 8 (Saturday, August 18, 2018: 8:40 p.m./ET; 5:40 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the turf (three-year-old fillies)
The Del Mar Oaks (G1) drew a cast of a dozen three-year-old fillies set to contest the nine-furlong distance on the lawn. Let’s dig down deep, analyze this contentious field and hopefully come up with some winning selections and plays:
#1 MS. PEINTOUR adds blinkers for trainer Brian Koriner after an eighth place finish in the San Clemente (G2). This gal was also beaten by five lengths to #6 PAVED and #12 ANIMOSITY in the Honeymoon (G2) two starts back. Hopefully the blinkers help her improve because she will need to really pick up her feet to be competitive against this tough group of fillies.
#2 STREETWITHNONAME wheels back in just 13 days for a try at a Grade 1 placing. The Eoin Harty trainee was recently seen at Santa Rosa defeating colts and geldings in the Robert Dupret Derby. Even though she gets back to facing fillies, this is still a much more talented group than what she saw two weeks ago. Another one that needs to kick it into a higher gear in order to hit the board.
#3 FOOL’S PARADISE was beaten by 17 lengths by #4 OLLIE’S CANDY in the Summertime Oaks (G2) on dirt at Santa Anita. She freshens up for this start and makes her second career afternoon appearance on turf, but her only previous turf race (sprinting) resulted in a nine-length loss. Looking to use others.
#4 OLLIE’S CANDY broke from the 13 post position, lost ground on both turns and was the only one closing on a speed biased turf course when finishing second by a neck in the San Clemente (G2). It was, needless to say, a terrific effort. This filly, who won the Summertime Oaks (G2) two starts ago, draws a better post in this spot and should get a better trip. If she duplicates her last-out effort, she is in with a huge chance.
#5 FATALE BERE (FR) was only beaten three-and-a-half lengths in the Belmont Oaks (G1) going a mile-and-a-quarter on July 7th. Three starts ago, she won the Providencia (G3) and defeated #9 MS BAD BEHAVIOR and next out winner #6 PAVED. She fits in well with this group, has the class to be very competitive and must be marked as a major player.
#6 PAVED finished behind #5 FATALE BERE in the Belmont Oaks (G1). Her best runs to date came when defeating #12 ANIMOSITY and #1 MS. PEINTOUR in the Honeymoon (G2) at Santa Anita going this mile-and-an-eighth distance, and a win in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) against males during the winter at Golden Gate Fields. However, she has finished behind #5 FATALE BERE twice and will need to turn the tables on that rival.
#7 COLONIA (FR) ships west for trainer Graham Motion. This French-bred made her first start in North America last time out when winning a minor stake at Arlington Park and now stretches out a sixteenth of a mile while facing Grade I company for the first time. East Coast invaders have done well in this race in the past and Motion knows how to ship and win. Joel Rosario riding only adds to her appeal. One to definitely consider.
#8 CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH broke her maiden at first asking when sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita last December and came back in February to win an allowance race going one mile on the turf. She hasn’t been seen since and her trainer, Neil Drysdale, is 0-for-11 with runners making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. Siding with others.
#9 MS BAD BEHAVIOR came into the San Clemente (G2) off a three-and-a-half month break and ran a gallant race after stalking the pace, finishing third as the favorite while only beaten by a half-length. Conditioner Richard Baltas hits at a 20% clip with runners in their second start off a layoff between 45 and 180 days and there’s reason to believe she may be more cranked up for this run. On top of that, she has hit the board in eight of nine lifetime starts. Consistent filly merits respect.
#10 SO HI SOCIETY (IRE) makes her first start for trainer Jeff Mullins, having previously been trained by Chad Brown on the East Coast. This gal ran third in her last two races, both minor stakes at Monmouth Park, and won an allowance three starts back at Aqueduct. Keep in mind that the only two wins in her career came over soft ground. The Del Mar turf will be firm this Saturday. Others look a bit more intriguing.
#11 MOVIE MOMENT went off at 21/1 and was no match for #6 PAVED, #12 ANIMOSITY and #1 MS. PEINTOUR in the Honeymoon (G2) two starts back. Most recently, she was well beaten by #2 STREETWITHNONAME in an allowance race last month. Looks outclassed.
#12 ANIMOSITY usually shows early speed. Last time out in the San Clemente (G2), she broke a step slowly and sat dead last while keen. She produced a better than looked rally down the lane and finished well to lose by just two-and-a-half lengths. There is reason to believe with a better trip, she can improve. Wouldn’t count her out.
- #4 OLLIE’S CANDY – Huge run in the San Clemente (G2).
- #9 MS BAD BEHAVIOR – Will be fully cranked.
- #5 FATALE BERE – Best effort makes her dangerous.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 COLONIA – East Coast invader fits in well.
I’ll box all four of my selections in exactas and trifectas and put the remaining two dollars I have left on my longshot value play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$2 Exacta Box: #4 OLLIE’S CANDY and #5 FATALE BERE and #7 COLONIA and #9 MS BAD BEHAVIOR ($24).
$1 Trifecta Box: #4 OLLIE’S CANDY and #5 FATALE BERE and #7 COLONIA and #9 MS BAD BEHAVIOR ($24).
$2 Win: #7 COLONIA