Favorites in the Kentucky Derby

By Emily Shields

Ever since the late 2012 change from graded stakes earnings to a points system to determine who gets to run in the Kentucky Derby, the Run for the Roses has been won by the race favorite.

In the years leading up to this change, winners included Giacomo (50-1) in 2005, Mine That Bird (50-1) in 2009, Super Saver (8-1) in 2010, Animal Kingdom (20-1) in 2011, and I’ll Have Another (15-1) in 2012.

Since the change, which put more focus on the prep races in the month leading up to the Derby and a lot less emphasis on two-year-old racing, favorites Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, and Justify have worn the Roses.

Historically, 52 out of 144 Kentucky Derbies have been won by the favorite. This is a 36% strike rate, a little bit higher than the typical average of 1/3^rdof the time. But it has been a rocky road for favorites, despite their recent string of luck: from 1979 when Spectacular Bid rolled home in the Derby, until Fusaichi Pegasus dominated in 2000, not a single favorite won the Derby. In almost the same stretch of time from 2001 until 2019, 10 favorites have won.

Whether the streak of favorites will be broken this year remains to be seen, as likely choice Omaha Beach looks a commanding presence. He is battle tested, has won at two different tracks and three different distances over both fast and sloppy ground, and has the imposing Mike Smith aboard after that rider jumped away from Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster.

The current streak of favorites winning is unprecedented in Kentucky Derby history; it will be interesting to see if the trend continues with the 2019 edition.

For more Kentucky Derby information on contenders, click here.

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