$300k Gotham

$300,000 Gotham (G3)

Aqueduct

Race 10 (Saturday, March 9, 2019: 5:09 p.m./ET; 2:09 p.m./PT)
One mile on the main track (three-year-olds)

The Gotham (G3) features the return of INSTAGRAND, who kicked off his career with two breathtaking victories last summer.  He has been given time off, yes, but he returns with a series of strong workouts for ‘King Jerry’ Hollendorfer. Let’s take a closer look at him and the seven others in the starting gate:

#1 FAMILY BIZ broke his maiden four starts ago but has proceeded to lose three consecutive races against winners. In his most recent start, he finished fourth behind #5 HAIKAL and #8 TIKHVIN FLEW. Will go off at a price.  
#2 KNICKS GO scored a massive upset in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) as a two-year-old, winning that mile-and-a-sixteenth contest by over five lengths. He proved the aforementioned run was no fluke, with a terrific runner up finish to GAME WINNER in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). However, since then, he’s lost two races by large margins. Major questions as to whether his form is going in the right direction. Playing against.

#3 MIND CONTROL makes his first start since a victory going this distance in the Jerome Stakes over this track. Three starts back, he defeated next out winner MUCHO in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga. Looks like a perfect fit for this race. Legit contender.  

#4 MUCH BETTER stretches back out to a mile after a victory against allowance company going six-and-a-half furlongs. His only try against graded stakes company on the dirt came two starts back when finishing third behind GUNMETAL GREY and subsequent Southwest Stakes second place finisher SUENO in the two-turn Sham (G3) at Santa Anita. Hall of Famer ‘big money rider’ Mike Smith has the call for trainer Bob Baffert. Well spotted; another contender.

#5 HAIKAL broke his maiden sprinting six furlongs and came back to win a minor stake by a neck, both runs which were over this Aqueduct main track. He stretches out to this elongated one-turn one mile distance and will need to improve again to defeat the best signed on here.

#6 INSTAGRAND has always been well regarded, purchased for $1,200,000 as a two-year-old by owner Larry Best (OXO Equine LLC) and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. In two career starts last summer, he scored breathtaking victories, winning both races by a combined 20 lengths. The one the others fear.

#7 NOT THAT BRADY cuts back in distance after a head loss to TAX in the Withers (G3) over this track. He’s going to be really fit cutting back in distance and sports a Beyer Speed Figure (95) that is good enough to defeat this field. Interesting item.

#8 TIKHVIN FLEW broke his maiden going seven furlongs and came back to run third behind #5 HAIKAL as the even money favorite in his most recent start on February 9. He should get a good trip drawn outside for trainer Steve Asmsussen, who is 14 for 45 (31%) at the current Aqueduct meeting.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 INSTAGRAND – Sky is the limit for this uber talented colt.

2. #3 MIND CONTROL – Grade I winner at two.

3. #4 MUCH BETTER – Bob Baffert in a three-year-old dirt stake? Hard to ignore.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 NOT THAT BRADY – Has the highest last race Beyer Speed Figure.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other three choices in exactas and come back with a saver win bet on my second selection.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Exacta: #6 INSTAGRAND over #3 MIND CONTROL and #4 MUCH BETTER and #7 NOT THAT BRADY ($30).

$20 Win: #3 MIND CONTROL