$200k Florida Oaks

$200,000 Florida Oaks (G3)

Tampa Bay Downs

Race 10 (Saturday, March 9, 2019: 4:50 p.m./ET; 1:50 p.m./PT)
Mile and a sixteenth on turf (three-year-old fillies)

The 39^th running of the Florida Oaks (G3) is a turf race in Florida, so naturally trainer Chad Brown has a strong hand, but nine others in the field look to play spoiler while sporting solid resumes themselves:

#1 LA FEVE (FR) made her first start in the United States for Chad Brown in the Sweetest Chant (G3) at Gulfstream on February 3 and ran third, beaten five lengths. Second start off a four-and-a-half month layoff and with a race under her belt, she has a right to take a step forward with top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Contender.

#2 MEGA FORTUNE faces winners for the first time after a front running score last time out at odds of 41/1. Her most recent race was the first time that she had ever routed on grass. Maybe that’s what she’s always wanted to do, but now she faces proven winners and a legit group of stakes quality fillies. Improvement needed once more.

#3 WINTER SUNSET is a perfect two-for-two after a pair of victories routing on turf at the Fair Grounds. This Wayne Catalano trainee is a royally bred filly, by TAPIT out of multiple Grade I winner WINTER MEMORIES. Player.

#4 ELSA went off as the heavy 2/5 favorite in the Shantel Lanerie Memorial at the Fair Grounds and was out finished by #3 WINTER SUNSET while finishing a no-excuse second. Before that runner up effort, this Godolphin homebred won the Jimmy Durante (G3) at Del Mar. Joe Bravo was aboard for the Durante (G3) win and hops back aboard today.

#5 CONCRETE ROSE broke her maiden at first asking and came back to win the Jessamine (G3) at Keeneland. Her most recent start, a no-show in the Breeders Cup’ Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), was a subpar effort with no excuse. She makes her three-year-old debut here for trainer Rusty Arnold, who wins with 7% of his trainees in their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days.

#6 ZARINA broke her maiden for a tag in her career debut and most recently won a starter optional claiming over this turf course in February. This is a much tougher group than what she’s used to running against, so class is a big question mark.

#7 BLOWOUT (GB) is the second Chad Brown entrant in the race. This gal stalked the pace in her only career race, a maiden event over this turf course, winning that contest by a head. Jose Ortiz rides for the first time and they win at a 27% clip together when teaming up.

#8 HER ROYAL HIGHNESS makes her career debut on turf for top connections Graham Motion and Joel Rosario. Two starts ago, this filly won an allowance optional claimer at Laurel but, most recently, was a non-factor in the Suncoast Stakes over the Tampa main track.  By El Prado stallion Paddy O’Prado, there is reason to believe this gal might like the grass. Nonetheless, improvement is needed for her to beat the best.

#9 WINNING ENVELOPE was also well beaten in the Suncoast Stakes on February 9, but she was coming off a four-and-a-half month layoff. Her only career turf try resulted in her best race, a four-and-three-quarter length romp at Churchill Downs in September. Getting back to a surface she likes while making her second start off a break, maybe she can run a peak race. Live.

#10 STELLAR AGENT makes her three-year-old debut and first start off a four-month layoff in this spot. The daughter of MORE THAN READY broke her maiden easily sprinting on turf at Saratoga, came back to run third in the Miss Grillo (G2) behind NEWSPAPEROFRECORD and, in her most recent start, finished behind the aforementioned rival in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).  The class of the field.

#11 MARGARET’S JOY is a maiden who will need to pick up the pace to be competitive from this outside post.

SELECTIONS

1. #1 LA FEVE – In Chad Brown We Trust.

2. #10 STELLAR AGENT – Grade 1 placed.

3. #3 WINTER SUNSET – Royally bred.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#9 WINNING ENVELOPE – Only turf try was terrific.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice, exacta box my top three picks and box all four of my selections in a trifecta.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$14 Win: #1 LA FEVE

$2 Exacta Box: #1 LA FEVE and #3 WINTER SUNSET and #10 STELLAR AGENT ($12).

$1 Trifecta Box: #1 LA FEVE and #3 WINTER SUNSET and #9 WINNING ENVELOPE and #10 STELLAR AGENT ($24).