$100k Harlan’s Holiday (G3)

$100,000 Harlan’s Holiday (G3)

Gulfstream Park

Race 5 (Saturday, December 15, 2018: 2:01 p.m./ET; 11:01 a.m./PT)

Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)

The $100,000 Harlan’s Holiday (G3) is the first of five stakes races carded on a terrific 11-race program this Saturday. This mile-and-a-sixteenth event is also considered the final local prep for the $9,000,000 Pegasus

World Cup Invitational (G1) next month. Let’s analyze this field of six, beginning with the third place finisher in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1):

#1 AUDIBLE finished third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) to Triple Crown champ JUSTIFY in May and was given six months off. In his first start off that layoff on November 3, this guy easily won the Cherokee Run Stakes going seven furlongs at Churchill. He is at his best going two turns and is two-for-two over the Gulfstream Park main track, having won the Holy Bull (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) earlier this year. All signs indicate he’ll be ready to run another winning race.

#2 MINUTE MADNESS won an allowance optional claimer by eight-and-a-half lengths one month ago and makes his stakes debut in this spot. His last effort was a career best and his first start off the claim for Peter Walder. One of two runners owned by Loooch Racing in this spot and it appears this one has the better chance of doing the most damage.

#3 SIGHTFORSOREEYES lost by 49 lengths in the Clark Handicap (G1) and wheels back in three weeks for Loooch Racing and trainer Anthony Quartarolo. His most recent win came two starts ago in an allowance race at Thistledown.  He’ll need to run a career race to hit the board here. Passing.

#4 VILLAGE KING (ARG) colt won a Group 1 race in South America last year before moving to the barn of Todd Pletcher last winter. Since then, his lone win from three lifetime starts in North America came last time out in the Red Smith Stakes at Aqueduct going a mile-and-an-eighth. He cuts back a sixteenth of a mile and gets the services of John Velazquez, one of Pletcher’s top riders (27% win percentage together).

#5 APOSTLE broke his maiden three starts back, preceded to win a first level allowance race in his next start, and in his most recent start, ran fifth in a minor stake on turf at Gulfstream Park West. However, it’s possible this guy might be better on dirt. Exotics candidate.

#6 SIR ANTHONY has won three races in a row since taking the blinkers off, two of those races coming against allowance company at Hawthorne and the third victory coming against stakes company over polytrack at Arlington. He faces a much tougher field here than what he saw in the Midwest. Another one where a minor award may be his ceiling.

SELECTIONS

1. #1 AUDIBLE – Will be the prohibitive favorite.
2. #4 VILLAGE KING – Stablemate to top pick comes off gutsy stakes score.
3. #2 MINUTE MADNESS – Allowance win for new barn last time out was sharp.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#6 SIR ANTHONY – Has good recent form. 

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll play a straight exacta on the two Pletcher’s.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Exacta: #1 AUDIBLE over #4 VILLAGE KING

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