Breeders’ Cup Turf – TVG Analyst Simon Bray

Once again the Breeders’ Cup Turf is at the mercy of the Europeans, which in its 34th running, have won it 21 times. Enable looks to become the fourth filly and first Arc de Triomphe winner to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf in the same year. Seven previous Arc winners have tried without success, but this year could be different.  Enable has only raced twice this year due to a knee injury earlier in the season. That injury might have been a blessing in disguise as she comes into the Breeders’ Cup as a fresh horse.  Most of the previous Arc winners came into the Breeders’ Cup as an afterthought, usually after a long season that was aimed specifically at the Longchamp test. 

Enable went into the Arc off one prep on an all-weather surface and despite beating a decent field in the Arc, trainer John Gosden said she was still only 85 % fit on Arc day. That bodes well for further improvement in the BC Turf.  It will be her third start off the layoff.   The fact that Gosden and Juddmonte decided to come is a huge vote of confidence. These connections would have pulled the plug if there was an inkling she had regressed out of the Arc. Into the winners circle at a short price.

Now we need some prices underneath to create some value. With heavy rain forecast Wednesday and Thursday, the turf could well be labelled as soft on Saturday.  If that is the case, Channel Maker (15-1 ML) could hit the board. His last two wins came on soft ground including a gate to wire victory in the Turf Classic last out.  If he gets an easy lead on soft ground… Look out!

Waldgeist and Talismanic (last year’s winners) line up for trainer Andre Fabre, who has won this race three times. Of the two, I’ll go with Waldgeist who beat his stable mate two starts back and ran well finishing fourth behind Enable in the Arc. Sandler’s Joy who closes from far back, is another that could complete a tri or super at a price. He always runs his race and despite only one win this year he seems to be in the mix every time he enters the starting gate. He also appreciates soft ground. Good luck.

Selections

1) Enable

2) Channel Maker

3) Waldgeist

Money Back Special Pick: Sadlers Joy

The post Breeders’ Cup Turf – TVG Analyst Simon Bray appeared first on TVG BLOG.