This edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic is one of the most wide-open running I can remember. I have spent time talking to many handicappers this week and seemingly each of them likes a different horse. And I can’t disagree with their opinions! This group has earned their right to compete for the top prize and many of them have the qualifications to go home with a victory.
I will start my analysis by saying that the “horse for course” angle holds a lot of weight for me at Churchill Downs. I will give horses in the main track races an edge if they have experience and an affinity for that surface. My top selection and a horse that has run his career best race at Churchill Downs is #11 MIND YOUR BISCUITS. This horse is remarkable. Watching him be just as effective around two turns as one shows just how special he is. In the Whitney, he never gave up while chasing the speedy Diversify who freaked on the front end that day. Looking up the chart will show you that in that race while he may have been second he defeated Tapwrit (G1W), Backyard Heaven (G2W), Discreet Lover (G1W) and Good Samaritan (G2W)….all top class horses. In his subsequent start, the Lukas Classic, his competition was softer but he put forth a Thorograph number over this course that puts him on par with the top betting choices of this field. Naturally he is closer to the pace now that the distances have increased but should they fly up front he has no problem laying midpack and launching a late bid. I also love the way he has been training lately at Churchill Downs. Earlier this week he went out for a 2 minute clip and was going so fast that the clockers actually gave him a four furlong work time in the process. Biscuits loves CD, can still perform if there in lingering moisture in the track after expected rain mid-week, finishes like the added distance won’t be a problem and can adapt to any pace scenario.
The other two horses that I am most interested in are #7 WEST COAST and #3 CATHOLIC BOY. West Coast had a stellar 2017 year. He was a bit of a late bloomer but racked up multiple grade one wins and was the best of the three olds as far as finish position in last year’s Classic. His second place finish to Gunrunner in the Pegasus in January really set the table for what we could expect from him this year. Unfortunately he’s had to stop and start a bit but his prep in the Awesome Again was exactly what Bob Baffert needed to propel him back in to the deep end of this division. West Coast is a very heavy strong-bodied horse, he’s the type that needs racing to become 100% fit and he will be come this weekend for the Classic.
In my opinion, Catholic Boy is the best of the three year olds this year and has every chance to jump up and defeat older in this race. He looks like a million dollars training out there at Churchill right now and has grown and filled out nicely since I last saw him. He’s proven he can battle and has a clear excuse for the only bad race on his past performances (bled in the Florida Derby). He’s tactical, has a big stride, and runs well fresh. Catholic Boy is a win candidate in my opinion. On the subject of three year olds, I have to make note of #6 McKINZIE. With Hall of Famer Mike Smith seemingly choosing to ride him over West Coast you can conclude that he and Baffert feel McKinzie is sitting on a big race. McKinzie is a rapidly improving three year old that is coming in to his own right now but for me lacks some seasoning in a race of this magnitude. He was also tail swishing at the end of the Pennsylvania Derby, which is never a trait I like to see in any stage of a race. He will be bigger, better, and stronger this weekend but will it be enough? I am looking for him to have a big four year-old campaign.
#14 ACCELERATE will be first or second choice at post time but I have some concerns betting him at a short price. The outside draw hurts him. He has developed a bad habit recently of balking at the gate and rocking back and forth once loaded. He hasn’t gotten away cleanly in his last two starts because of that bad acting. From an outside post and with his style he needs to get away cleanly so that Joel Rosario doesn’t have to use him too much to establish position. On the subject of shipping, Accelerate has only left California twice. On both occasions he went to Oaklawn Park; but in 2017 he had to be scratched from the Oaklawn Handicap because he developed a fever and became sick just prior to the race. Accelerate has some big obstacles to conquer from an outside post and in a new environment if he is to come home with a victory.
#2 ROARING LION does not seem to be getting much respect but I give him a chance and believe he will outrun his odds in the Classic. Yes, his pedigree is mostly turf but he has shown so far that he has the class to run on anything. He clearly didn’t like the conditions at Ascot on Champions Day yet he found the will to win. He’s built more powerfully than most of the Euros as well which should help him over the dirt. Additionally, Churchill is one of the best surfaces for a “turf” horse to try to transfer their form. The Churchill surface is clay based which means horses bounce over it a little more than they do over a sand based dirt track……that bounce is part of what a turf horse likes. If he is going to compete at this level on dirt, Churchill is the place to do it.
#8 PAVEL is another that fits the horse for course angle. It wouldn’t surprise me if he hits the board…..certainly one to use in exotics. #10 YOSHIDA has looked phenomenal training all week. He handled the kickback very well in the Woodward and finished as if the added distance will be well within his grasp.
Good luck in the Classic! It’s Mind Your Biscuits for me on top but I will get as much coverage as possible in multi-race exotics.
Money Back Special Pick: Mind your Biscuits
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