Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint 2018 – TVG Analyst Mike Joyce

The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint has had its fair share of giant prices in its brief history, with Desert Code winning the inaugural running at odds of 36-1 and Stormy Liberal last year at 30-1. This year we have the top 4 finishers from the 2017 edition at Del Mar all coming back plus a small, but expected contingent of Euros and new shooters from across the country all climbing up the ladder. The rain expected in Louisville this week has the potential to affect this race as much as any other. Since we can’t predict exactly how the turf course will dry out come Saturday, please take race-day consideration of surface into any and all handicapping of this race

We’ll start with the repeat customers: Disco Partner, Richard’s Boy, Bucchero and returning champ Stormy Liberal.  Disco Partner had a nice tune up in the Belmont Turf Sprint and cruised to an impressive victory over a turf course labeled as ‘good.’ Unfortunately that same turn of foot seemed to be lacking in his prior effort in the Troy with a ‘soft’ turf course at Saratoga. He sat identical trips in both races but he just didn’t have the same punch in the Troy. His other 2 previous worst efforts were on soft and yielding surface as well, all of this being a long way of saying the rain is a concern. If it’s ‘good’ or better, he’s likely going to be right there. If it’s yielding or soft, I’m chucking him out completely. He’s a pivotal horse in here because his form changes the most due to surface. Stormy Liberal has only run on good or firm turf course so there is no form to go back to. I’d be surprised though if it didn’t compromise him a little should the rain keep falling all week. Ditto his stable mate Richard’s Boy. Bucchero actually had a decent 2nd in the Shakerton on the soft going at Keeneland so if anyone handles and damp surface of this group it will be him.

Only 2 horses arrive from Europe in here: Havana Grey and Lost Treasure, each at 20-1 on the morning line. Of the two, Havana Grey is clearly more accomplished and suited for this race. The 3 year old has a natural measure of speed, an affinity for the soft going and multiple graded stakes victories including a Group 1 at the Curragh over a yielding turf course. He gets lasix and possibly a turf course precisely to his liking and undoubtedly prefers a lush turf course at Churchill rather than what he’d be running over were the Cup in California this year.

And of the up-and-coming horses in this field, World Of Trouble figures to take the most play. A Derby hopeful earlier in the year, World Of Trouble found a new career in turf sprinting. He’s only raced on the grass twice but his times and speed figures suggest this guy can really run. Yes, massive test of class in the Cup, but honestly it’s a test of class for all of them and this maybe the only horse in the field who hasn’t hit his ceiling. Fast as all get-out and trackable if need be, this guy is going to be tough.

Selections:

Top Pick: 10) Havana Grey

2nd Choice: 11) World of Trouble

3rd Choice: 1) Ruby Notion

Wagers:

Trifecta Wheel

10,11/1,2,7,9,10,11/1,2,7,9,10,11

WP on #10

Exacta Box

1,10,11

 

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