$100k South Ocean – Woodbine 11/17

$100,000 South Ocean
Woodbine

Race 8 (Saturday, November 17, 2018: 4:42 p.m./ET: 1:42 p.m./PT)
Mile and a sixteenth on Tapeta main track (Ontario-bred two-year-old fillies)

A quintet of Ontario-bred sophomores will line up north of the border to compete eight-and-a-half panels in the feature race on the Woodbine Saturday program. It’s time to hunker down and win some money:

#1 NOTICE ME broke her maiden like a good thing, defeating #4 MISS ARIEL by five-and-a-half lengths in a maiden special weight race two starts ago. She came back to run fourth, beaten only three-quarter of a length, to next out winner SILENT MISTAKE and #2 PREFERRED GUEST in the Victoria Queen. She routes for the first time in this spot, but class is there to be competitive.

#2 PREFERRED GUEST adds blinkers for trainer Mark Casse, who wins at a 16% clip when doing so. However, she’s still a maiden, having just run fourth as the 2/1 favorite behind #4 MISS ARIEL. Another that makes her two turn debut, but coming from the Casse barn, she is worthy of a second look.

#3 FALCON’S VIEW was a dominant winner of a two turn Ontario-bred maiden special weight on October 27, but Eurico Da Silva, who rode her that day, elects to stay with #1 NOTICE ME. Contender.

#4 MISS ARIEL’s lone route try came three starts ago, when she finished behind #5 CRUMLIN TIME and #3 FALCON’S VIEW in a September 19 maiden special weight. She removes blinkers for trainer Tony Gattellaro and gets back to a route of ground after a disappointing off-the-board finish in her most recent start. Will try to beat.

#5 CRUMLIN TIME has the most racing experience of anyone in the field, with six lifetime starts. Most recently, this filly ran sixth of seven in the Mazzarine (G3) over this synthetic main track surface. Two starts back, she defeated #3 FALCON’S VIEW in a maiden special weight going two turns. Another to consider.

SELECTIONS

1. #3 FALCON’S VIEW – Maiden win was a beauty.
2. #5 CRUMLIN TIME – Drops from a Grade 3.
3. #1 NOTICE ME – Has the pedigree to like going longer.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 PREFFERED GUEST – Maiden adding blinkers.

WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Exacta Box: #3 FALCON’S VIEW and #5 CRUMLIN TIME and #1 NOTICE ME ($30).
$20 Win: #3 FALCON’S VIEW

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