$100k River City Handicap – Churchill Downs 11/17

$100,000 River City Handicap (G3)
Churchill Downs

Race 10 (Saturday, November 17, 2018: 5:36 p.m./ET; 2:36 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)

Half the field in this Grade 3 event is comprised of a duo of runners from the high percentage barns of Brad Cox and Michael Maker, with the other half of the field looking to beat both megabarns. Let’s discuss each contender, beginning with the rail post position:

#1 MASTER MERION comes off a third place finish behind #5 BIG CHANGES in an allowance race at Keeneland last month. The Wesley Ward trainee has not won since a victory in the Let It Ride Stakes last year at Del Mar. Albin Jimenez teams up with trainer Wesley Ward and they win at a 22% clip together.

#2 POSTULATION is another that has not been seen in the winner’s circle since 2017. The Michael Matz trainee earned a career high Beyer Speed Figure of 10 in his most recent start, a runner up finish to HELLO DON JULIO in the Point Of Entry Stakes going a mile-and-a-half at Belmont Park. He cuts back to this nine-panel distance, but his best runs have come going marathon distances. Is this race too short?

#3 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD, the 121 lb. highweight, drops in class after a midfield finish in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. This gelding is a horse for course, having won all three of his starts over the Churchill Downs lawn, including a sharp win in the Wise Dan (G2) this summer. High percentage trainer Brad Cox conditions. A major player.

#4 OSCAR NOMINATED cuts back in distance after poor efforts in mile-and-a-half races such as the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland and the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) at Kentucky Downs. Similar to #2 POSTULATION, you have to wonder whether this ridgling is racing at his best distance. In five tries going nine furlongs, he has run two seconds and two-thirds (without a win.) That said, he has run against some super talented horses in the past and merits respect. One of two runners slated to compete for trainer Mike Maker.

#5 BIG CHANGES is the second Brad Cox entrant in the race. The son of MIDSHIPMAN seeks his sixth victory in a row after winning a trio of minor stakes this summer and, most recently, a neck allowance score at Keeneland last month. The minor stake wins came at smaller tracks (Evangeline Downs, Mountaineer and Louisiana Downs) against easier company but clearly this guy is in good form and he resides in a top barn. One to consider despite Florent Geroux electing to ride #3, MR. MISUNDERSTOOD.

#6 TEAM COLORS was a game winner of an allowance race at Keeneland on October 12 and makes his second start off the claim for well-regarded Midwest trainer Joe Sharp. The son of STREET CRY ran fifth in this race last year, finishing two lengths behind Grade I placed racer SHINING COPPER. Expect him to sit off the pace and make one run.

#7 FLATLINED makes his first start for trainer Kelly Von Hemel, who has won with 20% of her 184 starters in 2018. Last time out, this gelding ran fourth to NEXT SHARES, who came back to win the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. Another one that doesn’t have a ton of early zip.

#8 SIR DUDLEY DIGGES finished third in his most recent start, the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup. The winner (ARKLOW) came back to run fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). This Mike Maker trainee has failed to win a graded stake in the United States but is three-for-four on the Churchill Downs turf course.

SELECTIONS

1. #3 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD – ‘Horse for course’ for top barn.
2. #4 OSCAR NOMINATED – Possesses backclass.
3. #5 BIG CHANGES – Seeking sixth consecutive win.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 SIR DUDLEY DIGGES – The ‘other’ Mike Maker.

WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections (as well as #6 TEAM COLORS) in exactas and trifectas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$2 Trifecta: #3 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD over #4 OSCAR NOMINATED and #5 BIG CHANGES and #6 TEAM COLORS and #8 SIR DUDLEY DUGGES ($24).
$8 Exacta: #3 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD over #4 OSCAR NOMINATED and #5 BIG CHANGES and #8 SIR DUDLEY DIGGES ($24).
$2 Exacta: #3 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD over #6 TEAM COLORS

 

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