$200k Red Smith – Aqueduct 11/17

$200,000 Red Smith (G3)
Aqueduct

Race 8 (Saturday, November 17, 2018: 3:47 p.m./ET; 12:47 p.m./PT)
Mile and three-eighths on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)

A full field of ten is set to contest the 2018 Red Smith Stakes (G3), featuring runners from high profile barns such as Chad Brown, Michael Maker and Shug McGaughey. Let’s get right to business and start chatting up this group of marathon turfers, beginning with the equine that draws the rail post position:

#1 TEODORO (IRE) made his first start in the United States over soft ground in the Turf Classic Invitational (G1) at Belmont and finished double digit lengths behind Grade I winner’s CHANNEL MAKER, ROBERT BRUCE and SADLER’S JOY. He makes his debut for the Thomas Morley barn here and faces a slightly easier group this time around. His biggest win to date came in the Group 3 Lancaster Stakes at York Racecourse in Great Britain.

#2 VILLAGE KING (ARG) won a Group 1 in South America last year before shipping to North America for his 2018 season. The Argentinian-bred most recently ran third, beaten a head, in a high level allowance race at Belmont, and ran fourth, beaten 11 lengths by #3 ZULU ALPHA in an allowance race two starts ago. Third start in his form cycle, so one to take a second look at.

#3 ZULU ALPHA makes his second start for the Mike Maker barn after a two-length score over ARKLOW in the Sycamore (G3), who came back to run fourth at big odds in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). Major contender despite finishing 13th and last in this race last year.

#4 GALOPE AMERICANO (BRZ) makes his second start in the United States for trainer Todd Pletcher. A Group 1 winner in Brazil, this four-year-old colt sat off the pace before failing to produce a rally in an allowance race in which #2 VILLAGE KING ran third. He may have needed the out as he was coming off a seven month layoff and Jose Ortiz picks up the mount, which can only be seen as a positive.

#5 SOGLIO won an allowance race at Keeneland last month and gets back to racing against stakes company here. The son of SCAT DADDY raced in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) two starts ago and finished right behind #8 BIGGER PICTURE when checking in a close third. Jose Ortiz rode last time out but he lands on #4 GALOPE AMERICANO, so John Velazquez takes the reins.

#6 CALL PROVISION enters this race after being freshened up a couple months for one of the best trainers in the U.S. (Chad Brown). Son of LEMON DROP KID is three-for-four over the Aqueduct turf and last year, he ran in this race and lost by a half-length to Grade I winner SPRING QUALITY. Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount; dangerous.

#7 INSPECTOR LYNLEY finished third, beaten two lengths in his most recent afternoon appearance, the Knickerbocker (G2), finishing right behind Grade I winner HI HAPPY in the process. Trained by Shug McGaughey, this horse has never run farther than a mile-and-an-eighth, but being by LEMON DROP KID out of a MARIA’S MON mare, he certainly has the breeding to enjoy the added distance. Maybe.

#8 BIGGER PICTURE finished over four lengths behind #3 ZULU ALPHA in the Sycamore (G3) and lost to ARKLOW by a half-length in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) two starts back. Earlier in the year, he put up better than looked efforts against sharpies like HI HAPPY, FUNTASTIC, GLORIOUS EMPIRE and CHANNEL MAKER He hasn’t won in seven starts but look at whom he has been running against. Fits with this group.

#9 BIG BEND has finished off the board in his last six starts. Poor form has me looking elsewhere.

#10 POSTULATION has finished behind sharp hardknocker HELLO DON JULIO in his last two races but has not won since 2017. In this spot, he faces tougher than what he has been running against recently. Siding with others.

#11 SPECIAL ENVOY is one of five also-eligible runners. The Arnaud Delacour trainee most recently finished seventh in the Red Bank (G3) at Monmouth on September 1. If he gets into this race, improvement is needed for him to make an impact against the best signed on.

#12 FOCUS GROUP will need two defections to get into the race. The Chad Brown entrant is a perfect two-for-two when going this 11-furlong distance on the lawn. Most recently, this KITTEN’S JOY colt ran a credible third in the Canadian International (G1). Drop in class should help him.

#13 RED KNIGHT would need three scratches to get into this event. Has only been off the board once in his nine race career and is trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott.

#14 CONTROL GROUP is a main-track only entrant, meaning he would need this race to get taken off the turf and moved to the main track in order to get into the field. This guy is four-for-seven over wet surfaces.

#15 EXULTING is a son of TAPIT who is three-for-four on a wet track. If the race gets moved, he has plenty of appeal.

#16 ADULATOR failed to win an allowance race at Laurel last week. Pass.

SELECTIONS

1. #8 BIGGER PICTURE – Easiest spot in a while.
2. #6 CALL PROVISION – In Chad Brown We Trust.
3. #7 INSPECTOR LYNLEY – Bred to like this distance.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 ZULU ALPHA – Third start in his form cycle.

WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$50 Win: #8 BIGGER PICTURE

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