SPOTTING POSITIVE (AND NEGATIVE) KEY RACES

 

Key races (coined decades ago by handicapper Steve Davidowitz in his classic book titled Betting Thoroughbreds) are races that in hindsight are much stronger (or weaker) than ‘normal’ races. The notion is that when a number of horses exiting the same race go on to win their next starts, it implies that the race they all came from was a particularly strong heat, and all other runners should be given extra credit when they next start. Conversely when all the horses out of a race go on to be badly beaten, the race is identified as a negative key race, and all subsequent runners exiting the race should be viewed with skepticism.

Unfortunately, many handicappers are too quick to label a race a key race as soon as it yields multiple winners, or a negative key race as soon as multiple runners return to run poorly. It seems like every impressive maiden race at Del Mar and Saratoga is quickly labeled a potential key race, based on only a couple of data points, then assuming the rest of the field will follow suit. However, that often leads to bad handicapping assumptions that do not play out over time.

Spot true key races and negative key races by looking past the obvious ‘multiple next out winners’ criteria by paying attention to the right scenarios:

– Recognize that every race is likely to yield at random at least one next-out winner, since all starters other than horses making their debut are by definition exiting some sort of race. 

– Maiden races with a very fast pace and/or fast final time often indicate a strong heat. When a maiden race is won by a runner that sets very fact early fractions and draws away to win, the horses unable to handle the blazing pace usually fare much better when they return at a more sensible early tempo.

– Two or three winners is a positive sign but not unexpected in a large field, so simply looking for multiple winners out of a race is not enough.

– Look for potential key races that yield next-out winners that win at a higher class level and/or earn higher speed figures.

– Focus on types of races likely to attract a higher quality field than normal. Maiden races at marquee meets like Del Mar, Saratoga and Keeneland often fill fields where multiple stables enter their top prospects against one another. When they return in ‘normal’ maiden special weight races, they often face much softer competition. 

– Bottom level maiden claiming races and bottom level claiming events are often filled with horses that will never see the winner’s circle, so they are a prime source of negative key races.

Requirements to Spotting Positive (and Negative) Key Races:

– Spot true key races and negative key races by looking past the obvious ‘multiple next out winners’ criteria.

– Focus on high-class events at marquee meets to find multiple better than average heats of maiden and allowance runners that should yield key races.

– Look to the lowest level of maiden claiming and claiming heats to find negative key races full of horses to play against next-out. They are unlikely to win any time soon — if ever.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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