Race 9 (Saturday, October 27, 2018: 5:30 p.m./ET; 2:30 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
Well-regarded three-year-old HOFBURG headlines the Fayette Stakes (G2) field on closing day at Keeneland. The Bill Mott trainee looks to stamp himself as a major force moving forward into 2019, with six other foes signed up to challenge the royally bred chestnut. Let’s analyze the entire field, beginning with the rail post position:
#1 PRIME ATTRACTION was fourth best in the Awesome Again (G1) last time out, finishing behind talented Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) favorites ACCELERATE and WEST COAST. The James Cassidy trainee ships to Keenelend, with his connections surely having thoughts that he will be racing against easier horses this time, which might help him get over the top.
#2 NICE NOT NICE finished second behind Grade I winner SEEKING THE SOUL in the Ack Ack (G3) on September 29 at Churchill. Two of his three wins this year have come versus allowance company, while the third win was against $50,000 claimers. A neat horse that has improved, no doubt, but he may be best used underneath in exotics.
#3 HENCE won the Governor Cup at Remington Park last time out going this mile-and-an-eighth distance, defeating next our winner SHOTGUN KOWBOY in the process. Three of his five career wins have come at this nine-panel distance and Ricardo Santana Jr. hops back aboard for trainer Steve Asmussen. One to consider.
#4 SCUBA was well beaten by GOOD SAMARITAN the last time he ran this distance. He makes his second start off a four-and-a-half month layoff for trainer Brendan Walsh, who hits at 19% with runners making their second start off a break longer than 180 days. His recent speed figures are lower than most of the others signed on here and looks outclassed on paper.
#5 LEOFRIC was last seen finishing third in the Woodward (G1). It was a terrific effort considering this guy dueled on the lead while setting fast fractions. He stuck around late, only to get nipped in the final sixteenth by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contenders YOSHIDA and GUNNEVERA. He’s going better than ever for high percentage trainer Brad Cox and has had an ample amount of time between races to freshen up after the hard-fought effort. This horse also possesses speed in a race that appears to lack pace, which only adds to the appeal. Main contender.
#6 HOFBURG was soundly beaten by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contenders MCKINZIE and AXELROD in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) last time out. Even though he faces older horses for the first time, one could make an argument that this is an easier group than what he saw at Parx. He had excuses last time, too: he missed training time before the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) due to illness and suffered an undesirable wide trip in the race as well. Looking for him to rebound.
#7 RATED R SUPERSTAR won the Ben Ali (G3) over this Keeneland dirt course four starts ago, in which he made a last to first move while sitting off a decent pace. The son of KODIAK KOWBOY does not have much early speed and this race fails to draw a fast pace for him to chase. That’s a concern.
SELECTIONS
- #5 LEOFRIC – Loved his effort in the Woodward (G1).
- #6 HOFBURG – Expect an improved effort.
- #3 HENCE – Trainer has won 311 races this year.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY– #1 PRIME ATTRACTION – Doesn’t have to face Breeders Cup Classic (G1) caliber runners this time.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$50 Win: #5 LEOFRIC
The post $200,000 Fayette (G2) – Keeneland appeared first on TVG BLOG.
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