Race 11 (Saturday, November 3, 2018: 5:44 p.m./ET; 2:44 p.m./PT)
Mile and a quarter on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
The 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) features the deepest field in recent memory, led by the trio of Southern California invaders ACCELERATE, WEST COAST and MCKINZIE, top European contenders including multiple Group 1 winner ROARING LION, Dubai World Cup victor (G1) THUNDER SNOW and the royally bred MENDELSSOHN, plus the East Coast contingent of DISCREET LOVER, the Bill Mott trained YOSHIDA and the versatile MIND YOUR BISCUITS. It’s sure to be an exciting way to end Breeders’ Cup 2018:
#1 THUNDER SNOW (IRE) won the Dubai World Cup (G1) three starts ago over a early speed favoring surface, was given five months off and came back to run very poorly to ROARING LION in the Juddmonte International (G1). Second start off the layoff, he shipped to North America and ran a much improved race, sitting off the pace before running second to #13 DISCREET LOVER in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Third start in the form cycle, he is likely to be in peak form.
#2 ROARING LION looks to end his stellar career with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), which will be his first try on dirt. The top side of his pedigree (by KITTEN’S JOY) is for the turf, but he is out of a STREET SENSE mare. ‘LION has won four races in a row, including a top-notch performance in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) last month against the best older turf horses in Europe. He’s obviously got a ton of class but whether he can run his best race on dirt is a major question mark.
#3 CATHOLIC BOY freshens up a couple months for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who wins at a 35% clip with runners making their first start of a layoff between 61-180 days. The multiple Grade I turf winner switched over to the dirt in his most recent start, the Travers (G1) at Saratoga, and defeated ten three-year-olds, including #9 MENDELSSOHN by four lengths. He faces older horses for the first time, but there’s no doubt this guy has a lot of talent. Contender.
#4 GUNNEVERA ran fifth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Most recently, the Antonio Sano trainee ran second to #10 YOSHIDA in the Woodward (G1). It’s worth noting he also lost to #1 THUNDER SNOW and #7 WEST COAST in prior starts this year. Improvement is needed.
#5 LONE SAILOR won the Oklahoma Derby (G3) last time out at Remington Park, breaking an 11 race-losing streak. He takes a major class hike for this Grade I event and faces the best dirt horses in the world. Looks outclassed.
#6 MCKINZIE makes his second start off a six-month break for Bob Baffert, who has won this race three times in the past four years. His last start resulted in an ultra impressive victory in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Like the other three-year-old’s entered, he will be competing against older horses for the first time. That said, there is reason to believe he will be even better than last time now that he has a race under his belt. Must be respected.
#7 WEST COAST has never run a bad race, finishing in the money in all 12-lifetime starts. He finished third in this race last year and most recently was the runner up in the Awesome Again (G1) to #14 ACCELERATE, the morning line favorite. He makes his second start off a six-month layoff for trainer Bob Baffert, who hits at 31% with his trainees making their second start off a vacation longer than 180 days. There is reason to believe he can take a big leap forward in this second start in his form cycle. Both Baffert runners are clearly major players.
#8 PAVEL returns to a track we know he likes as the Doug O’Neill trainee’s last win came in the Stephen Foster (G1) over this track in June. Since then, he’s run once: a second place finish to #14 ACCELERATE in the Pacific Classic (G1), a race in which he lost by 12 lengths. May be a notch or two below the best signed on.
#9 MENDELLSOHN, a ½ brother to BEHOLDER, has failed to win in four starts in the U.S. this year. His most recent start, a second place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), was a better than looked effort. After dueling on the lead and setting blazing fast fractions with multiple Grade I winner DIVERSIFY, he was able to kick on before getting passed late by #13 DISCREET LOVER and #1 THUNDER SNOW. However, this spot isn’t any easier.
#10 YOSHIDA (JPN) won the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga by two lengths in a full field of 14, defeating #4 GUNNEVERA and next out Grade 2 winner LEOFRIC in the process. YOSHIDA faces steeper company than what he faced at ‘Toga, but this colt has always had a plethora of raw talent and is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who knows how to get runners ready to fire for big races like this. One to consider.
#11 MIND YOUR BISCUITS tries a mile-and-a-quarter for the very first time. The 2016 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champion proved he has stamina in his last start, a five length romp in the Lukas Classic (G3) over this track. With that race in the books we know he likes the Churchill dirt, but we still don’t know whether he can beat this type of competition at this distance.
#12 AXELROD is a rapidly improving three-year-old. The son of WARRIOR’S REWARD most recently ran second to #6 MCKINZIE in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), losing by a length and three-quarters. He’ll need to improve a couple of lengths to turn the tables on #6 MCKINZIE while also facing older and more experienced rivals in this spot. A lot to ask of this colt to win a race of this caliber.
#13 DISCREET LOVER went off at 45/1 in last month’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), sat off a blazing fast early pace and was able to take advantage of that good setup, surging late to beat #1 THUNDER SNOW and #9 MENDELSSOHN. Will need to run the race of his life to beat the best in here.
#14 ACCELERATE is three-for-four at this mile-and-a-quarter distance and has won three straight Grade I races, which includes a 12 length romp at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic (G1). In his most recent start, he broke poorly, made an early move to the lead, was wide on both turns and still pulled away late to beat #7 WEST COAST in the Awesome Again (G1). Two concerns: his post and his trainer has never won a Breeders’ Cup race (0-for-41).
#15 COLLECTED is an also eligible and will need a defection in order to get in to the race. Son of CITY ZIP won the 2017 Pacific Classic (G1) before running a terrific second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to GUN RUNNER. Coming off an eight month layoff last time out, he ran fourth as the 1/2 favorite in the Pennsylvania Derby Champion Stakes, an ungraded race. With that poor effort, one is left pondering whether this colt is the same as he was in 2017.
#16 TOAST OF NEW YORK is an also eligible and will need two scratches to get in the race. More likely to run in the $200,000 Marathon on Friday at Churchill Downs.
SELECTIONS
- #7 WEST COAST – Primed for a big effort.
- #14 ACCELERATE – Five graded stakes wins from six starts this year.
- #6 MCKINZIE – Three-year-old could be the real deal.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 THUNDER SNOW – Third start off the layoff angle.
WAGERING STRATEGY
Sometimes it’s best to do things the good old fashion way, so I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$50 Win: #7 WEST COAST
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