Race 10 (Saturday, November 3, 2018: 4:56 p.m./ET; 1:56 p.m./PT)
Mile and a half on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)
ENABLE, one of the greatest turf horses of this century, makes her U.S. debut in America’s richest turf race: the $4,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). She looks to be the first racehorse in history to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) after winning the prestigious Arc de Triomphe (G1) in France last month. A dozen rivals take on the queen of English racing – Let’s get to analyzing each contender:
#1 TALISMANIC (GB) won last year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at odds of 14/1 and is one of two runners in the race for trainer Andre Fabre. This Godolphin owned five-year-old son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO has finished behind #2 ENABLE and #12 WALDGEIST in his two most recent races, both at Longchamp in France. Whether he is the same horse as last year remains to be seen. Will play against.
#2 ENABLE (GB) is a living legend. The filly by NATHANIEL makes her third start off an eleven-month layoff and was last seen beating boys in the Arc de Triomphe (G1) (her second consecutive win in that race). She is a perfect six-for-six when traveling this 12-panel distance. Adds Lasix today and is clearly the one to fear.
#3 CHANNEL MAKER went to the lead in a paceless Turf Classic Invitational (G1) on wet ground and repelled the challenge of Arlington Million (G1) winner #4 ROBERT BRUCE, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. With rain in the forecast this week, the Bill Mott trainee will be just fine if the turf course comes up soft. That said, he’ll need to turn away some talented European turf horses, which includes superstar #2 ENABLE. Won’t be easy.
#4 ROBERT BRUCE (CHI) sat off a slow pace, came up to challenge eventual winner CHANNEL MAKER and was simply second best in his most recent afternoon appearance, the Turf Classic Invitational (G1). This Chad Brown trainee won the Arlington Million (G1) two starts back and was a multiple Group 1 winner in South America before joining the Chad Brown barn. Even though last time out he brought his ‘B’ race, he has to be respected if he were to run his ‘A’ race this time.
#5 MAGICAL (IRE) is a three-year-old filly wheeling back quickly after her one length victory in the British Champion Stakes (G1) on October 20. Two races ago, she was well beaten by #2 ENABLE in the Arc de Triomphe (G1). She adds Lasix and will need to make up some ground on her aforementioned rival, but she looks like the stronger of the duo of entrants from Aidan O’Brien’s yard.
#6 ARKLOW ran second in the Sycamore (G3) two weeks ago and is another one that wheels back quickly. Brad Cox trainee won the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3) two starts ago, defeating next out winner SOGLIO in the process. Major step up in class may be too much.
#7 GLORIOUS EMPIRE (IRE) has been freshened for two months after a length-and-three-quarter win against next out Turf Classic Invitational (G1) winner CHANNEL MAKER in the Sword Dancer (G1). He’s a need the lead type and has won three races in a row going these long turf distances. This will be the acid test.
#8 LIAM THE CHARMER won the John Henry Turf Classic (G2) last month and takes a bump up in class for trainer Michael McCarthy. Southern California invader has only run once in a Grade 1, resulting in an off-the-board finish. Doesn’t look like he has the class to be competitive at this level.
#9 QUARTETO DE CORDAS (BRZ) makes his U.S. debut while also making his first start for the Ian Wilkes barn. The four-year-old colt has run all 16-career races in Brazil, with his most recent win coming two starts ago in the GP Brasil (G1) going this mile-and-a-half distance. Most recently, he finished second in the Mathias Machline (G1) on August 4. The field he faces here is significantly tougher than what he’s seen in Brazil. Will be a longshot.
#10 HI HAPPY (ARG) finished second in the Knickerbocker (G2) going a mile-and-an-eighth, a distance that may be too short for him. Earlier in the year, this Todd Pletcher trainee won a duo of stakes, the Man O’War (G1) and the Pan American (G2), at this distance. Recent form has me looking elsewhere.
#11 SADLER’S JOY was beaten ten lengths by #3 CHANNEL MAKER and #4 ROBERT BRUCE in the Turf Classic Invitational (G1) last time out and hasn’t won in six straight starts. A cool horse that finished fourth in this race last year, he still needs to pick up the pace to be competitive in a race that drew some awfully tough customers.
#12 WALDGEIST (GB) was last seen running a respectable fourth, only beaten by a length-and-three-quarters to #2 ENABLE in the Arc de Triomphe (G1). Son of GALILEO is four-for-six this year, with wins in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) and the Qatar Prix Foy (G2), in which he defeated stablemate #1 TALISMANIC. He’s four for eight at this mile-and-a-half distance and is a major candidate.
#13 HUNTING HORN (IRE) ran sixteenth and last in the Arc de Triomphe last time out. In two career races in the United States, this colt ran third and eighth, respectively, in a pair of Grade I races earlier in the year. The ‘other’ Aidan O’Brien trainee is a three-year-old facing older here and would have to reverse his form to be competitive.
SELECTIONS
- #2 ENABLE – One word: Superstar.
- #12 WALDGEIST – Euro has excellent credentials.
- #3 CHANNEL MAKER – Career best Beyer last time out.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 MAGICAL – Another Euro to watch out for.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections and add consistent colt #4 ROBERT BRUCE underneath in exotics and trifectas, then come back with a few saver exactas.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Exacta: #2 ENABLE over #3 CHANNEL MAKER and #4 ROBERT BRUCE and #5 MAGICAL and #12 WALDGEIST ($20).
$2 Trifecta: #2 ENABLE over #3 CHANNEL MAKER and #4 ROBERT BRUCE and #5 MAGICAL and #12 WALDGEIST (24).
$2 Exacta: #3 CHANNEL MAKER and #4 ROBERT BRUCE and #12 WALDGEIST over #2 ENABLE ($6).
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