Race 8 (Saturday, November 3: 3:36 p.m./ET; 12:36 p.m./PT)
Mile on turf (three-year-olds and upward)
The Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) features a contentious and large field that figures to make the race an excellent betting affair, as evidenced by #4 POLYDREAM being the lukewarm 5/1 morning line favorite. We begin our analysis with one of many European runners shipping in for this prestigious event:
#1 ONE MASTER (GB) is a four-year-old colt by FASTNET ROCK that has won two races in a row, including a nose victory at 47/1 in the Prix de la Foret (G1) in France. He makes his first start going farther than seven furlongs in this spot and top European jockey James Doyle flies in to ride. Worthy of a second look.
#2 NEXT SHARES is another one that was a longshot victor in his last start, the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), in which the Richard Baltas trainee stalked the pace before pulling clear of his competition at odds of 23/1. Keep in mind that this guy finished behind #10 CATAPAULT in two starts earlier this year. If he can duplicate that last run at Keeneland (which was a ‘freak’ effort), then he is in with a chance, but I’m thinking he might bounce.
#3 HAPPILY (IRE) suffered a tough loss to classy filly LAURENS in the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1) at Newmarket on October 6 and ships in for trainer Aidan O’Brien, who is still seeking his first ever victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. This daughter of GALILEO has failed to win in six starts in 2018 and also note that she faces older males here. Others look more attractive.
#4 POLYDREAM (IRE) defeated talent European turfers JAMES GARFIELD and next out winner THE TIN MAN in the seven furlong Maurice de Gheest (G1) before taking two months off and running poorly in her most recent start, the Prix de la Foret (G1). Another three-year-old filly facing older male turf horses, this gal has failed to win in two starts going a mile while running her best races over seven furlongs. The main handicapping question becomes…is the last furlong going to compromise her chances?
#5 OSCAR PERFORMANCE is a perfect three-for-three going a mile on turf and looks like one of the strongest Americans in the field. The Brian Lynch trainee most recently won the Woodbine Mile (G1) but defeated a much softer group than what he finds here. The forecast calls for rain earlier in the week so the turf may come up wet, but his one try on yielding ground as a two-year-old resulted in a six length win in a Grade 3. That said, his only try over this Churchill Downs grass course was a 15-length loss.
#6 ALMANAAR (GB) sat midfield in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) and faded badly in the final three furlongs, finishing well behind #2 NEXT SHARES. He ran a decent second in the mile-and-a-quarter Arlington Million (G1) to stablemate and Breeders Cup Turf contender (G1) ROBERT BRUCE two starts ago and, three starts back, won an allowance race in his first start off a long layoff after winning the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) in 2017. May be better with a little more distance.
#7 EXPERT EYE (GB) freshens up after a respectable third place finish in the Moulin de Longchamp (G1) in France going this one-mile distance in September. Note he finished behind #11 LIGHTNING SPEAR in the Sussex Stakes (G1) earlier in the year, and his biggest win came in a Group 3 going seven furlongs. That said, trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who conditions this colt, is a world-renowned trainer that knows where to spot his horses in places where they can win. We’ll tab him as a contender.
#8 I CAN FLY (GB) raced over soft ground in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) last time out and only lost by a nose to ROARING LION, a Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) entrant and a top turf miler in Europe. Like stablemate #3 HAPPILY, she faces older foes and males in this spot, but she certainly held her own against older in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) just two weeks ago. If she repeats that effort, she has a massive chance.
#9 HUNT (IRE) scratched.
#10 CATAPULT was terrific in his last two races, the Eddie Read (G2) and the Del Mar Mile (G1) this summer. He has clocked a number of sharp workouts in prepping for this race while coming off a two-and-a-half month break for trainer John Sadler, who scores at an 11% clip with runners making their first start off a 61-180 day freshening. Looks like the best West Coast turf miler in the field.
#11 LIGHTNING SPEAR (GB) will make his debut on Lasix while racing in the United States for the first time as well. In August, he won the Sussex Stakes (G1), defeating #7 EXPERT EYE, but finished behind the aforementioned rival in the Moulin de Longchamp (G1) one month later. Most recently, he ran seventh behind ROARING LION and #8 I CAN FLY in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1). Recent form is concerning but will the first time Lasix angle help him get over the top?
#12 ANALYZE IT stalked the pace before weakening as the favorite in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) last month, finishing five lengths behind #2 NEXT SHARES. Earlier this year, he finished just a head and neck behind Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contender CATHOLIC BOY in a duo of races. Note this three-year-old colt has lost four times in a row as the favorite, so he has burned plenty of money this year. Playing against.
#13 GUSTAV KLIMT (IRE) races on Lasix for the first time for trainer Aidan O’Brien and his top rider, Ryan Moore. Most recently, the son of GALILEO ran fourth, beaten a length-and-a-half to #1 ONE MASTER in the Prix de la Foret (G1). This guy is 0-for-five going a mile, with most of his better races coming in seven-furlong races. Passing.
#14 MUSTASHRY (GB) is another European racing on Lasix for the first time. He looks for his third win in a row here as he’s won two straight Group 2 races in Great Britain. He is three-for-four this year, so he’s in great form, and is the second entrant for world-class conditioner Sir Michael Stoute. He’ll have to overcome the poor post position, but this one is an interesting item.
#15 DIVISIDERO is the first of two also eligibles, but does draw in due to the scratch of HUNT. His biggest win this year came in a Grade 3 (he did win a Grade I in 2016), and he does like this turf course, but no doubt he has seen better days. Will go off at a big price.
#16 CLEMMIE (IRE) will need two defections to get into the race. She has failed to win in all five starts this year and showed a bit more as a two-year-old in 2017. Like #15 DIVISIDERO, she has the look of a big longshot.
SELECTIONS
- #8 I CAN FLY – Effort behind Roaring Lion was a beauty.
- #7 EXPERT EYE – Ran very well in a Group 1 overseas last month.
- #5 OSCAR PERFORMANCE – May prove tough to reel in if given an easy lead.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #14 MUSTASHRY – Poor post but a talented colt for a top trainer.
WAGER STRATEGY
I’ll play all four of my picks in one big exacta box and play my remaining two bucks to win on my top pick.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$4 Exacta Box: #5 OSCAR PERFORMANCE and #7 EXPERT EYE and #8 I CAN FLY and #14 MUSTASHRY ($48).
$2 Win: #8 I CAN FLY
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