$2,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – Churchill Downs

Race 9 (Friday, November 2, 2018: 6:05 p.m./ET; 3:05 p.m./PT)

Mile and a sixteenth on the main track (two-year-old colts and geldings)

The 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) will be run on the very racetrack in which we may see some of these two-year-olds next year on the first Saturday in May in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s how I see the race:

#1 DUELING broke his maiden by two-and-three-quarter lengths in his first try going a route of ground on September 28. Clearly he likes routing, but it’s definitely worth noting that the victory came against maidens. This is obviously a tough spot to be facing winners for the first time. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer opts to add the blinkers on this one and he scores at a 19% clip when doing so.

#2 MR. MONEY is another one that beat maidens last time in his first start going a route of ground. That effort came over this track, but he’s in the same situation as the runner right to his inside. 

#3 DERBY DATE is still a maiden. He was well beaten in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last time out behind three runners that enter back here (#10 KNICKS GO, #14 SIGNALMAN and #8 STANDARD DEVIATION). ‘The Coach’ D. Wayne Lukas trains and he won the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) with 61/1 shot TAKE CHARGE BRANDI.

#4 TIGHT TEN broke his maiden by four lengths in a sprint and has since hit the board in two stakes: the Saratoga Special (G2) and the Iroquois (G3), which was the first route start for this son of TAPIT. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides for Steve Asmussen and they win at a 21% clip from a 729-horse sample when teaming up.

#5 WELL DEFINED won the restricted Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream Park on September 29. That afternoon, he was seven lengths and probably could have won by more. Interesting that ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith rides.

#6 COMPLEXITY is a speedy son of MACLEAN’S MUSIC that broke his maiden at Saratoga and wheeled right back to beat #11 CODE OF HONOR in the Champagne (G1). That last Grade I win came going a one-turn mile; he now has to go to two turns for the first time while stretching out an additional half furlong. Expect this guy to go to the lead and go as far as he can for trainer Chad Brown.

#7 MIND CONTROL broke his maiden at Monmouth and came right back to win the Hopeful (G1) at 10/1 going seven furlongs. He routes for the first time here and his pedigree says he’ll be just fine going farther. Even though there’s a decent amount of speed signed on and this guy has some early zip too, he showed at Monmouth in his maiden win that he can stalk. Versatile dude has options.

#8 STANDARD DEVIATION broke his maiden in his first career start at 1/2 odds going seven furlongs at Saratoga and came back to run a better than looked third in the Breeders Futurity (G1) at Keeneland in his first start going a route of ground. That day, he broke from the 14-post position, was wide on both turns and still ran on to pick up the show. He adds blinkers for Chad Brown, who wins at a high 31% when making this move, and gets a better post position than last time. There are things to like here.

#9 GAME WINNER is undefeated, winning first out at Del Mar before winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the American Pharoah (G1) in his next two starts. He should get the right trip sitting off what could be a fast pace, and gets regular rider Joel Rosario back in the irons. The one to beat.

#10 KNICKS GO raced on Lasix for the first time in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and pulled off one of the shockers of the year, beating a full field of 13 by over five lengths at 70/1! He went to the front in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and got a clear and easy lead. He won’t get that in this spot.

#11 CODE OF HONOR broke his maiden like a good thing at Saratoga and ran an excellent second in the Champagne (G1) behind #6 COMPLEXITY. He will get a fast pace to chase on Saturday and should adore the added distance. Major player.

#12 GUNMETAL GRAY won for fun when breaking his maiden around two turns by almost seven lengths at Del Mar. He came back to run four-and-a-half-lengths behind #9 GAME WINNER in the American Pharoah (G1), a race in which he had no real excuses. Unless he runs a lot faster, an exotics placing may be his ceiling.

#13 TOPPER T races farther than six furlongs for the first time in addition to making his first start for the Bill Mott stable. This colt by BELLAMY ROAD is an Iowa-bred who sports one stake win: an Iowa-bred six-furlong stake at Prairie Meadows in August. Looks overmatched.

#14 SIGNALMAN gamely broke his maiden two starts ago going seven furlongs and came back a month later to run second behind #10 KNICKS GO and ahead of #8 STANDARD DEVIATION in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He will get the right trip sitting off what appears to be a fast and contentious pace up front, but he draws a brutal post position.

SELECTIONS

1. #11 CODE OF HONOR – Could get the right trip.
2. #9 GAME WINNER – Baffert trainee is undefeated.
3. #8 STANDARD DEVIATION – Room for further improvement.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 MIND CONTROL – Raw talent is there.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box my top three picks in exactas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #11 CODE OF HONOR

$5 Exacta Box: #8 STANDARD DEVIATION and #9 GAME WINNER and #11 CODE OF HONOR ($30).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The post $2,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) – Churchill Downs appeared first on TVG BLOG.