Race 8 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 4:43 p.m./ET; 1:43 p.m./PT)
Six furlongs on the inner turf (fillies and mares, three-year-olds and upward)
A full field of 12 distaff turf sprinters (plus two main track only also eligibles) are signed on to compete, with two Grade I placed fillies leading the list of competitors. Let’s try to pick the winner:
#1 ROCKY POLICY was fourth at 7/1 in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash at Laurel Park behind #5 FIRE KEY and #11 FEAR NO EVIL last time out over a yielding course. Her speed figures are a bit low compared to the best signed on in this race and it’s also worth noting she draws an undesirable rail post position. Won’t be easy for her to win.
#2 JC’S SHOOTING STAR lost by 10 lengths in the Smart N Fancy Stakes at Saratoga, finishing behind #6 TILLIE’S LILY and #8 BATTLE JOINED. Her last win came against New York-bred competition four starts ago going this distance over this turf course. Manny Franco has been aboard this mare in her last five races but opts to ride #6 TILLIE’S LILY, so Eric Cancel picks up the mount. Others seem more intriguing.
#3 LADY ALEXANDRA was terrific against boys in the Highlander (G1) at Woodbine two starts ago, finishing second behind Grade I winning foe LONG ON VALUE. Last time out, she raced on a synthetic surface in the Presque Isle Masters (G2) and faded down the stretch. She’s three-for-seven on turf, with all three turf victories coming over this Belmont turf course. The one to beat.
#4 ANNIE ROCKS was a no excuse fourth behind #12 BLACK CANARY in an allowance race last month over this turf course. She has yet to win in eight starts this year and has finished behind #12 BLACK CANARY and #11 FEAR NO EVIL in multiple races. Needs to pick up the pace.
#5 FIRE KEY won the Sensible Lady Turf Dash last time out, defeating #1 ROCKY POLICY, #9 ALWAYS THINKING and #11 FEAR NO EVIL in the process. Some of her best runs on turf have come over yielding turf and there is reason to believe the turf may be soft for this race considering rain is in the forecast on both Thursday and Friday. That said, she faces a tougher group than what she saw last time out. Mixed feelings.
#6 TILLIE’S LILY is lightly raced but no stranger to the winner’s circle, as this daughter of DISTORTED HUMOR has won four of five lifetime starts. Her first career loss came last time out in the Smart N Fancy Stakes, which was her stakes debut. That afternoon, she tried to sit in midpack and make one run but was unsuccessful in doing so, finishing sixth of 12. Usually she sits close to the pace, if not on the lead, so expect this gal to be forwardly placed this time. Wouldn’t discount for high percentage conditioner Jonathan Thomas.
#7 ORECCHIETTE has won three-of-four lifetime starts over the Belmont green, with all three victories coming at this six-panel distance. Her last win, a wire to wire allowance win as the favorite on September 8, was a beauty. Another entrant trained by Jonathan Thomas. Plenty of reasons to like this one.
#8 BATTLE JOINED freshens up after a better than looked fourth to classy mare CHANTELINE in the Smart N Fancy Stakes. For most of the race, she was farther behind in the field than she usually is and had to steady at the 5/16ths pole when trying to make a move. She eventually found a way out of traffic and came with a mild bid. But her previous races indicate she’ll need to run faster to beat the best in here. Siding with others.
#9 ALWAYS THINKING is one of two Tom Albertrani trained runners in this race. She has finished off the board in her past eight starts, including last time out when she finished sixth in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash. Improvement needed.
#10 LULL won the Honey Fox (G3) going a mile at Gulfstream Park this winter. The versatile Christophe Clement trained filly was last seen finishing second by a head, as the even money favorite, in the Kentucky Ladies Turf Dash (G3) at Kentucky Downs. Keep in mind that just three starts ago, this gal only lost by a length and a half to top class filly A RAVING BEAUTY in the Just A Game (G1). Clearly she has the class to win this.
#11 FEAR NO EVIL lost by a head to #5 FIRE KEY in the Sensible Lady Turf Dash. The last time she raced over this course (three starts back), she won a second level allowance race going this distance. She has been very consistent in 2018, having hit the board in six of seven races.
#12 BLACK CANARY is the third daughter sired by WAR FRONT in this race and comes off a two length second level allowance win on September 14 going this distance over this turf course. She makes her stakes debut here, but she usually stalks the pace and should get a good trip drawn outside for a good jockey/trainer combo in Tyler Gaffelione and Mark Casse. One to consider.
#13 YORKIEPOO PRINCESS is an also eligible and entered for the main track only.
#14 POSSE NEEDED is another also eligible/main track only entrant.
SELECTIONS
- #3 LADY ALEXANDRA – Her best race wins this.
- #10 LULL – Grade I placed mare merits respect.
- #12 BLACK CANARY – Nice effort over this course last time out.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 TILLIE’S LILLY – Win machine can rebound from last.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top selections over my other three picks in exactas and make a win bet on my longshot value play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$10 Exactas: #3 LADY ALEXANDRA over #10 LULL and #12 BLACK CANARY and #6 TILLIE’S LILLY ($30).
$20 Win: #6 TILLIE’S LILLY
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