$500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) – Keeneland

Race 9 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 5:30 p.m./ET; 2:30 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the turf (three-year-old fillies)

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner RUSHING FALL looks to give super trainer Chad Brown another Grade I win in the most prestigious North American turf race for three-year-old fillies, while European invaders NYALETI and MISSION IMPASSIBLE look for the possible upset. Here’s how I see the race:

#1 NYALETI (IRE) comes in off a fifth place finish in a Group 2 race in Great Britain in late August. Her only career start in the U.S. came two races back in the Beverly D (G1), where she finished sixth behind SISTERCHARLIE and next out Grade I winner FOURSTAR CROOK. This race is a restricted 3-year-old event, as opposed to the Beverly D. which was a race for older fillies and mares. This is an easier spot, no doubt, and European runners usually fare well here. Worthy of respect.

#2 PRINCESS WARRIOR finished third behind #6 SECRET MESSAGE in the Pucker Up (G3) at Arlington and most recently ran second in the Dueling Ground Oaks at Kentucky Downs. Her only victory against winners came three starts ago in an allowance race at Ellis Park. An exotics placing may be her ceiling.

#3 FATALE BERE (FR) won the Del Mar Oaks (G1) by a neck, surging late to defeat Grade 2 winning filly OLLIE’S CANDY. The third place finisher in that race, CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH, came back to win the Sandspoint (G3) at Belmont Park. This filly is two-for-three when traveling this nine furlong distance and retains the services of Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeuax, who was aboard for her Del Mar Oaks (G1) triumph.

#4 DADDY IS A LEGEND most recently ran third in the Lake Placid (G2) behind #8 RUSHING FALL and #7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS at Saratoga over soft ground. Her best race to date came in the Lake George (G3) over firm ground two starts ago. With no rain in the forecast at Keeneland, this filly will be happy to get back to a firm course. Nonetheless, she’ll have to find a way to turn the tables on the two runners who finished in front of her last time out.

#5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE (IRE) is the second European entrant in the race. This Irish bred filly most recently finished fifth, beaten 7 lengths, in a Group 1 race in France going one mile on July 29. Two starts ago, she defeated two next out winners in a Group 2 for top French trainer Jean-Claude Rouget. It’s worth noting that in September of 2017, she defeated #3 FATALE BERE, when that foe was beginning her career across the pond. Interesting item.

#6 SECRET MESSAGE won the Pucker Up (G3) two starts ago on Arlington Million (G1) Day before coming back to finish second in the Sandspoint (G3) at Belmont. This is a much steeper field than what she’s seen in her most recent graded stakes tries, so she’ll need to put up a career best effort.

#7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (IRE) put up a poor performance in her most recent afternoon appearance, the Sandspoint (G2), in which she was defeated by Grade I placed mare CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH and Grade 3 winner #6 SECRET PASSAGE. She has finished behind #8 RUSHING FALL in two prior starts. Her only career win in North America came as a two-year-old in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine. Will try to beat.
#8 RUSHING FALL is five-for-six lifetime, with one second place finish. In other words, this gal shows up every single time. Most recently, the daughter of MORE THAN READY defeated #7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS and #4 DADDY IS A LEGEND in the Lake Placid (G2) over soft ground and is an impressive two-for-two over this Keeneland turf course with an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern throughout her career.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE – Invader is dangerous.
2. #8 RUSHING FALL – All class.
3. #3 FATALE BERE – Will be running on late

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 NYALETI – The ‘other’ European filly.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks and longshot value play in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

#5 Exacta Box: #5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE and #8 RUSHING FALL and #1 NYALETI ($30).

$20 Win: #5 MISSION IMPASSIBLE

 

 

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