$800,000 Canadian International (G1) – Woodbine

Race 9 (Saturday, October 13, 2018: 5:41 p.m./ET: 2:41 p.m./PT)

Mile and a half on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)

Four graded stakes events on the 11-race Woodbine card, highlighted by this prestigious Canadian Grade I event which attracted a competitive field of 11, with three European shippers and North American horses from top trainers like Chad Brown, Graham Motion and Mike Maker. We’ll begin our analysis from the inside post position:

#1 MARKITOFF went off at 30/1 in the Northern Dancer (G1) last month and finished fourth, beaten just a length, by #9 JOHNNY BEAR and #7 ENGLISH ILLUSION. The good news is he didn’t run that bad. The bad news is the field he finds here is much tougher than what he saw in the Northern Dancer (G1) plus he hasn’t won since nine starts ago.

#2 THUNDERING BLUE is one of three Europeans who ship in for this race. He went off at 1/2 in the Stockholm Cup International (G3) and easily defeated the competition. His one win from two career starts at this mile-and-a-half distance came in 2017, but his last try at this distance resulted in a nine-length loss at Ascot against Group 2 company. Note he will not run on Lasix, but is a first time gelding.

#3 KHAN (GER) ‘freaked’ in the Preis Von Europa (G1) in Germany going this mile-and-a-half distance on yielding turf, winning the race by six lengths at 20/1. Before that aforementioned huge effort, he had failed to hit the board in two Group 1’s and one Group 2 going this distance over good ground in Germany. He’ll need to fire just like he did 20 days ago to have any shot at winning this race.

#4 FUNTASTIC won a second level allowance race three starts ago and came back to win the United Nations (G1) at big odds of 23/1 for trainer Chad Brown, who had three other entrants in the race. After that Grade I triumph, this colt came back to run poorly in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing well behind GLORIOUS EMPIRE, next out Grade I winner CHANNEL MAKER and #6 SPRING QUALITY. The question is, can he run back to his UN (G1) form?

#5 TIZ A SLAM takes another crack at Grade I company after a sixth place finish in the Northern Dancer (G1), finishing behind #9 JOHNNY BEAR, #7 ENGLISH ILLUSION and #1 MARKITOFF. Not only does he need to rebound and defeat those three rivals, but he’ll also need to beat some tough shippers. Won’t be an easy task.

#6 SPRING QUALITY won the Manhattan (G1) three starts ago, then came back to run third in the Sword Dancer (G1). Both races were run over firm ground. Most recently, this horse raced on yielding turf in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and lost by almost forty lengths. It was a scary bad performance, yes, but there’s reason to believe he simply didn’t like the yielding ground. Trainer Graham Motion wouldn’t put this guy back in a race unless he was 100% fine, both physically and mentally. Fits with this group.

#7 ENGLISH ILLUSION beat #9 JOHNNY BEAR two starts ago in the Halton Stakes but was defeated by that rival in their most recent meeting in the Northern Dancer (G1), where he made up a ton of ground after being too far back in the first half of the race. He’s run two improved races in a row over this course since being claimed for just $45K.

#8 BANDUA faces older colts and geldings for the first time in his career. This three-year-old Calumet Farm owned colt comes off a fourth place finish behind next out winner CHANNEL CAT in the Dueling Ground Derby at Kentucky Downs. Two races ago, he ran third at 39/1 in the Secretariat Stakes (G1), finishing three lengths behind CARRICK and Grade I performer ANALYZE IT, who most recently ran fourth in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

#9 JOHNNY BEAR repeated as the winner of the Northern Dancer (G1) at 16/1 last time out, making him a two-time winner of that popular race at Woodbine. But despite those accomplishments, he finished tenth and last in this race last year over soft going.

#10 DESERT ENCOUNTER (IRE) races on Lasix for the first time and rounds out the trio of Europeans. The six-year-old gelding was last seen running a close third in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup (G3) at Newbury in Great Britain. Note four of his seven career wins have come going this mile and a half distance.

#11 FOCUS GROUP makes his graded stakes debut in this spot. The son of KITTEN’S JOY most recently won the Johns Call Stakes going a mile-and five-eighths on the turf. On class alone, he might be up against it, but it’s hard to count out Chad Brown in a big turf race and it’s encouraging that jockey Jose Ortiz, who’s ridden this guy in eight of his past 10 lifetime starts flies in to ride.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 SPRING QUALITY – Could run big on firm turf.
2. #11 FOCUS GROUP – Tough post, but Chad Brown trains.
3. #10 DESERT ENCOUNTER – First time Lasix user loves this distance.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 ENGLISH ILLUSION – Been a different horse since being claimed.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a win bet on my top choice

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #6 SPRING QUALITY

 

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