Race 8 (Saturday, September 22, 2018: 5:18 p.m./ET; 2:18 p.m./PT)
One mile on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
Kelso, born in 1957, is best known for winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) an astonishing five times. He won 39 races in his four-year career and hit the board in an additional 14 races from 63 career starts. The race named in his honor this year features a champion in 2017 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner BATTLE OF MIDWAY and two runners dropping out of Grade I company: NO DOZING and SUNNY RIDGE. Let’s handicap the field and make some money:
#1 BATTLE OF MIDWAY, the 123 lb. highweight, makes his second start since returning back to the racetrack in May (after a failed campaign as a stallion). He ran a very good second to the undefeated and talented CATALINA CRUISER in his first start off the lengthy vacation, the Pat O’Brien (G2), on August 25th at Del Mar. Before that, this son of SMART STRIKE won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) over SHARP AZTECA and AWESOME SLEW. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has put two lightning quick works into this guy heading into the Kelso (G2). Looks like a horse that might be able to put it all together (again).
#2 TIMELINE freshens up after disappointing as the favorite in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga, finishing fourth behind winner #3 REALM. Two starts ago, this Chad Brown trainee went off favored, too, and again lost, finishing second to #7 SUNNY RIDGE. He may need to improve off of his two most recent efforts, but the good news is this guy loves Belmont; he’s won twice and finished second once in three career starts over ‘Big Sandy.’
#3 REALM was a 12/1 upset winner of the Alydar Stakes last time out, defeating the likes of #2 TIMELINE, KURILOV and PATCH. Before that win, he won an allowance race over this track. His form has never been better, although he’s facing steeper company than in his last two starts. We’ll see how much he has in the tank.
#4 NO DOZING drops in class after a three-length loss to quality runners like WHITMORE, CITY OF LIGHT and LIMOUSINE LIBERAL in the Forego (G1) last month. This is his third start off a layoff for high percentage trainer Arnaud Delacour. Dangerous.
#5 STILL HAVING FUN is cross entered in this race and the Gallant Bob (G2) at Parx. If he runs here, note he’ll be competing against older colts and geldings for the first time in his nine-race career. However, he is one-for-one over this surface, having won the Woody Stephens (G2) on Belmont Stakes Day.
#6 PATTERNRECOGNITION makes his stakes debut in this race after earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a second level allowance race going seven furlongs in mid-August at Saratoga. His only try going this one-mile distance resulted in a win too, back in November when earning a career high 103 Beyer. Speed figures indicate he can compete with these but from a class perspective, he is facing a lot tougher than what he is used to seeing.
#7 SUNNY RIDGE cuts back in distance after a poor showing in the Woodward (G1), finishing well behind Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contenders YOSHIDA and GUNNEVERA. His trainer (Jason Servis) has won at a 31% clip this year and he’ll be super fit for this, cutting back in distance while also dropping in class. Mark as a legit contender.
SELECTIONS
- #4 NO DOZING – Third start in the form cycle.
- #1 BATTLE OF MIDWAY – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) champ.
- #7 SUNNY RIDGE – Cuts back in distance for a high percentage trainer.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 PATTERNRECOGNITION – Best performances are fast enough.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top two picks in an exacta and make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$15 Exacta Box: #1 BATTLE OF MIDWAY and #4 NO DOZING ($30).
$20 Win: #4 NO DOZING
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