Friday, September 21, 2018

$100,000 Barretts Juvenile – Los Alamitos Racecourse

Race 6 (Saturday, September 22, 2018: 7:28 p.m./ET: 4:28 p.m./PT)

Six and one half furlongs on the main track (two-year-old colts and geldings)

Closing weekend of the Los Alamitos Daytime Summer Thoroughbred Meet features two-year-old colts and geldings looking for their first stakes victory in the $100,000 Barretts Juvenile. Let’s try to end our meet the right way and cash in on the feature race of the weekend:

#1 BIG IMPRESSION broke his maiden at the $40,000 claiming level over this track in his career debut but came back to finish 38 lengths behind the winner in his most recent afternoon appearance, an allowance event at Del Mar. At least we know he likes this dirt track, but that last performance was too poor to ignore. Pass.

#2 MY MANDATE was purchased for $135,000 as a yearling and this son of STRONG MANDATE started off his career with a solid second place finish against maiden special weight company. He now adds blinkers for trainer Mark Glatt, who hits at a 23% rate with maiden second time starters. The fact that this guy comes from a barn where horses typically improve after their career debuts’ makes him one to keep an eye on.

#3 GALILEAN is an interesting item. This Cal-bred son of UNCLE MO was purchased for a whopping $600,000 by his connections and sports a handful of quick, six-furlong workouts heading into his career debut. Yes, you read that right: this is his first career start. Drayden Van Dyke rides for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. We’ve seen a number of top quality two-year-olds come from the Hollendorfer barn with Van Dyke in the irons. Is this another one?

#4 KID KOIL took four tries to break his maiden but finally put it all together when in for a maiden $40,000 claiming tag last time out (over this track). Sometimes the lightbulb turns on for a horse after they break their maidens, but there is reason to believe this guy will need to pick up the pace to beat the best entered in this spot.

#5 SEVEN SCENTS cuts back from a route to a sprint after a maiden special weight win over this track going a mile for trainer Craig Lewis. The aforementioned win came on September 6 so he wheels back in just 16 days for this first start against winners. We know he will be super fit and his prior two races, both sprints, were far from disgraceful. He’s not a pretender…he’s a contender. 

#6 OUR SILVER OAK broke his maiden at first asking over this track in June and came back one month later in the Graduation Stakes at Del Mar, finishing ten lengths behind the winner as the favorite. He broke slowly in the Graduation but ran too poorly for that bad start to be used as a legit excuse for the loss. He’ll need to break better today and run faster than in his two prior career races.

SELECTIONS

  1. #3 GALILEAN – The next nice two-year-old from the Hollendorfer barn?
  2. #5 SEVEN SCENTS – Route to sprint angle.
  3. #2 MY MANDATE – Blinkers on for career start #2.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #6 OUR SILVER OAK – Broke his maiden over this track.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #3 GALILEAN

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