$1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (G1) – Parx

Race 11 (Saturday, September 22, 2018: 5:45 p.m./ET; 2:45 p.m./PT)

Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)

For most of these guys, the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) will be the ultimate test to see if the junior’s have what it takes to face the senior’s in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on the first Saturday in November at Churchill Downs. Let’s analyze the strong field assembled for this year’s edition in post position order:

#1 FIRST MONDAYS is the most lightly raced runner in the field with only three starts to his name. After two smart-looking wins against maiden and allowance company, he most recently ran third in the Smarty Jones (G3) over this track, finishing four lengths behind #6 AXELROD. Don’t think he has the class or seasoning to win this.

#2 HOFBURG adds blinkers after a decisive victory in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga on July 27. The sibling to talented Grade I winner EMMOLIENT has improved with racing age and experience and has some decent runs this year, including a third in the Belmont (G1) and a runner up finish in the Florida Derby (G1). He fell ill after his Curlin Stakes win which is why he was withdrawn from the Travers (G1), but he has since put up two bullet workouts in preparation for this race and all signs indicate he’ll be ready to go. Major player.

#3 INSTILLED REGARD makes his first start since a better than looked fourth place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He was 85/1 that day, having just run fourth beaten 10 lengths *by JUSTIFY) in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He makes his first start for the Chad Brown barn in this spot and Brown hits at a 30% clip with runners making their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. Top jockey Jose Ortiz only adds to the appeal.

#4 KING ZACHARY finished fourth, beaten over six lengths by CATHOLIC BOY, MENDELLSOHN and #10 BRAVAZO in the Travers (G1) last time out. His only graded stakes win to date came in the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs against much easier company than what he finds here. Two starts back, this colt finished behind #6 AXELROD and #8 TRIGGER WARINING in the Indiana Derby (G3). He’ll need to pick up the pace to win this.

#5 CORE BELIEFS was a game winner of the Ohio Derby (G3) two starts ago, but came back to run poorly in the Haskell (G1), finishing ten lengths behind two-year-old champion GOOD MAGIC and #10 BRAVAZO. He freshens up after that poor run and although there is reason to believe he ‘bounced’ after that big effort in the Ohio Derby (G3), this ‘capper feels he may be a couple notches below the best signed on here.

#6 AXELROD seeks to win his third race in a row. After winning the Indiana Derby (G3) two starts ago, the son of WARRIOR’S REWARD scored a four length win in the Smarty Jones (G3) over this track. Since he’s never faced company this tough before, this will be the acid test.

#7 MR FREEZE put on a show in the West Virginia Derby (G3), winning the mile-and-an-eighth contest by eight lengths after setting the pace and shaking clear of his rivals down the stretch. It was a ‘freakish’ performance considering this guy had never run a race like that in his three prior lifetime starts. And although he faces much tougher company today, his speed figure from the West Virginia Derby (G3) lines up with the best speed figures from the main contenders in this race. Interesting item.

#8 MCKINZIE has only run four times in his career and makes his first start since March. That said, we all know how good his trainer (Bob Baffert) is at getting runners ready to fire off of layoffs. The son of STREET SENSE won three of four races this past fall and winter and was on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail before being put to the shelf with an injury. He has a serious of super sharp works prepping for his return to action and figures to get plenty of support in the wagering.

#9 TRIGGER WARNING lost by 12 lengths at 79/1 in the Travers (G1) and a major form reversal is needed to be competitive.

#10 BRAVAZO has hit the board in his last two races (the Haskell (G1) and the Travers (G1)), but he hasn’t won since a narrow victory in the Risen Star (G2) over the winter. However, this colt will be super fit cutting back a furlong for this run and we all know how many big three-year-old races D. Wayne Lukas has won over the years. When you take into account that he has run against some awfully good three-year-olds lately, this guy must be considered in your exotics at the very least.

SELECTIONS

1. #2 HOFBURG – Getting better and better.
2. #8 MCKINZIE – Comebacker oozes high levels of talent.
3. #3 INSTILLED REGARD – Owner didn’t pay for $1.5 million for nothing.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#7 MR FREEZE – Last win was a beauty.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice and box all four of my selections in trifectas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$26 Win: #2 HOFBURG

$1 Trifecta: #2 HOFBURG and #3 INSTILLED REGARD and #7 MR FREEZE and #8 MCKINZIE ($24).

 

 

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