Race 11 (Saturday, September 1, 2018: 6:47 p.m./ET; 3:47 p.m./PT)
Mile and one-eighth on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
What a doozy of a field in this year’s renewal of the $750K Woodward (G1)—with a whopping 14 horses having been entered to vie for the top prize. There are no real standouts in this Grade 1 race, so there should be plenty of places to find value—and you should get paid if you are right.
#1 YOSHIDA (JPN) is a Grade 1 winning animal, but that victory came on turf, so it’s quite curious to see Mott transition this one over to the dirt. He’s coming off a fifth-place finish in the Fourstardave (G1), but he did have some traffic trouble, so I wouldn’t be too harsh on him. Plus, it was his first race back from Ascot, so he’s eligible to move forward today. Unfortunately, I just can’t get past the fact that he’s a turf horse trying dirt for the first time in a Grade 1—but then again, if Mott thinks he can dirt, then who am I to argue?
#2 IMPERATIVE has earned $2.9 million, and that’s nothing to sneeze at—but he did win the Charles Town Classic (G2) twice, and that race is worth a million bucks! His work elsewhere hasn’t been nearly as good, and he’ll need a big step up today.
#3 PATCH is pretty honest, but he hasn’t exactly wowed on the biggest stages, picking up some minor awards last year while racing against his own age group. This year, he was pasted in the Stephen Foster (G1) and then was beaten in the Alydar over this track. He’ll need a step forward today.
#4 TAPWRIT, the first (of two) Pletcher trainees, was a disappointment in the Suburban (G2) when he was sent off as the 3/1 favorite yet failed to get involved. He then ran another blah race in the Whitney (G1) earlier in the meet, so this 2017 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner is going to need to put forth a career best to have a say in the outcome today.
#5 HENCE is a bit of a grinder who needs things to go his way to flatter his late run. Since turning four, he hasn’t made a dent against this type of competition, with his only win coming at Albuquerque, where he was the 6/5 favorite. Maybe he can vie for a slice if the race falls apart.
#6 TERM OF ART, the first (of two) Brad Cox entrants, was once a one-paced plodder in California, but ever since he’s joined the Cox barn, he’s shown more early interest, and that worked to his advantage when he almost won a Grade 3 at Mountaineer, losing to one of today’s rivals. While that was his career best race, he’s going to need to move forward again today, and that could prove difficult since he’s winless beyond a mile.
#7 KURILOV (CHI) is a cool horse who can act on any surface, winning on dirt, turf, and off-tracks. He ran a good second in the Alydar, getting headed late, but that race should set him up well for this. He seems usable in your exotics, but I don’t like the fact that he’s been edged out twice before at today’s distance.
#8 DISCREET LOVER is another cool horse, being only $59K away from becoming a millionaire, dancing a lot of the big dances and picking up checks along the way. And therein lies the rub: he’s a deep closer who can pick up small pieces, but he often leaves himself with too much to do when facing this level of competition. The highest last race Beyer Speed Figure runner in the field, I would use him underneath, if at all.
#9 GUNNAVERA is another horse you can use underneath, since he likes to come from the clouds, launching a furious late bid to try and get in the money. He got a useful tune-up at Gulfstream Park in what was a paid workout (he was ten cents on the dollar), and he should be sitting on a big effort today—but will it be another case of too little too late?
#10 SEEKING THE SOUL is a Grade 1 winner on dirt, and that means a lot in this group, where several are seeking their first Grade 1 wins. He’s also a nine-furlong specialist who has done good work at Saratoga. He looked a tad short in his prep for this, just missing by a head at 1/2 odds at Indiana Grand, but I’m sure the connections would trade that loss for a victory here. He’s a major contender.
#11 LEOFRIC hasn’t run a bad race since joining the Brad Cox barn, so can he take another step forward today after winning two races in the minor leagues? He’ll also have to show he can handle nine-panels, since his best work has come going 8.5-furlongs against lesser competition. It’s hard to knock a horse who is six-for-eight over the past two years, but he will need to step things up today.
#12 SUNNY RIDGE looked very good winning an overnight stakes at Belmont back in July, but he hit the shelf for a brief freshening in order to come back in this Grade 1 event. Servis is solid with this type of comebacker, but this horse has come off layoffs before in graded-stakes races and hasn’t been able to get the job done.
#13 ZANOTTI is as honest as they come, rarely running a bad race. That said, he hasn’t been able to get over the hump in graded-stakes races, settling for the minor awards instead of the big prize. He’s usable in your exotics, but he’ll really need a big effort today to get the win.
#14 RALLY CRY, the second Pletcher trainee, looks like the wise-guy play in here only because he ran second in this race last year, losing to a little horse named Gun Runner (who just happened to go on and win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic). This guy was coming into that race off a monster effort in the Alydar, so it looks like he bounced a bit—yet still ran second. I like that Pletcher isn’t making the same mistake twice—he ran this one back in a seven-furlong sprint that should serve as a useful prep for this event. And it doesn’t hurt either that Mike Smith takes the call.
SELECTIONS
- #14 RALLY CRY – In a race that lacks star power, why not take a shot on a horse who has done good work over this track?
- #10 SEEKING THE SOUL – A repeat of his Clark (G1) makes him very dangerous.
- #9 GUNNEVERA – Blue-collar runner still has upside as a four-year-old making only his third start of the year.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 YOSHIDA (JPN) – You get a Grade 1 turf winner at a good price, since he’s never raced on dirt.
WAGERING STRATEGY
There’s no need to get too cute here, since #14 RALLY CRY should be a big price. A Win/Place punch seems like the sensible play.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$25 Win/Place #14 RALLY CRY
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