$200,000 John C. Mabee (G2) – Del Mar

Race 10 (Saturday, September 1, 2018: 9:30 p.m./ET; 6:30 p.m./PT)

Mile and one-eighth on the turf (fillies & mares, 3-years-old & upward)

A full field of 12 fillies and mares (plus one also eligible) takes center stage at Del Mar in this excellent renewal of the $200K John C. Mabee (G2), a nine-furlong turf affair for runners of the female persuasion. We’ve got last year’s defending champ in here, and she’s coming into this race off a sharp victory—can she repeat or could someone dethrone her?

#1 MEAL TICKET has really blossomed the past few months, showing off a very strong late kick for a gal who once ran for a $40K tag back East back in 2016. Since returning from an injury, however, she’s been terrific, finishing in the money in all of her route races on SoCal turf. Her come-home times suggest she can continue to improve, though she gets a stiff class test today after beating N1X foes.

#2 SOPHIE P (GB) won the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita at today’s distance, so she ticks off the class and distance boxes, even though her last two races were just okay. In her defense, she did have some trouble two back, while last time might have been too short for her. She has to turn the tables on a few of these, but she’s certainly usable in your exotics.

#3 MIDNIGHT CROSSING (IRE) won the Frankel (G3) in her first SoCal start, wiring the field back in December of last year. Since then, however, she hasn’t found the winner’s circle, losing to many of these in the process. She hasn’t really shown the requisite fight in the lane, so she’ll need to do better today.

#4 STORM THE HILL looked great winning the Wilshire (G3) going a mile at Santa Anita (where all four of her career turf victories have occurred), but that seems to be the outer-limit distance-wise for her, since her races beyond a mile have been sub-par. She was right there in contention in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) last time but was outkicked by a few of these going 8.5-furlongs. She’ll need to show she can excel at today’s distance.

#5 FAHAN MURA should ensure a quick clip, since she only knows one way to go under Maldonado—and that’s to the front. She’s been terrific since joining the Cerin barn, but she’ll have to prove she can carry her lethal speed this far—since her best work has come going shorter and against lesser. She’ll be in front turning for home, but I suspect one of these gals will run her down late.

#6 CORDIALITY has tactical speed, so she should be sitting off Fahan Mura, waiting to pounce if that foe starts to falter. However, she’s another one whose best work has come going shorter, so she’ll not only have to overtake Fahan Mura, but then she’ll also have to fend off some classy stretch-runners—something she wasn’t able to do in the Wilshire (G3) despite a perfect trip.

#7 CAMBODIA is your defending champ, having won this race last year after prepping in and winning the Yellow Ribbon (G2)—same as she just did this year, so you know Proctor isn’t messing around. She loves Del Mar; she’s proven at the distance; and she’s trained by a guy who is deadly when he points a horse to a race. Beat her to cash.

#8 ACHIRA has speed but she decided to rate last time, and because of that, she wasn’t able to run down Fahan Mura, who just ran everyone off their feet in the Osunitas. I don’t think Stevens will let that foe get too far ahead today—and because of that, I expect the race to open up a little sooner than normal, and if that’s the case, I think it will compromise this gal’s chances, since she’ll be contending with Cordiality and Fahan Mura and then will have to fend off the likes of Cambodia.

#9 VASILIKA has been an unbelievable $40K claim, having won five of six for the Hollendorfer barn, including several at today’s distance. She’s done nothing wrong, clearing her allowance conditions and winning a few starter-handicaps along the way, but the competition gets tougher today. Still, she’s a four-year-old who is in very good form right now, so it’s time for her to answer the class question.

#10 THE TULIP (IRE) has a very nice late kick, so expect her to be running on through the lane—but will it be good enough, since she’s another one who faces a class test today, especially since she had to go up north to get her third victory (which came in an overnight stakes at Santa Rosa). Note that her SoCal rider, Van Dyke, rightfully sticks with Cambodia. I do think she’s good enough to run on for a slice, but she’ll need a career best to beat Cambodia.

#11 MADAME STRIPES (ARG) ran a good second to Cambodia in the Yellow Ribbon (G2), but she was no match for that main rival, who blew by her as if she were standing still. On the plus side, she has tactical speed, so she should get a good tracking trip behind the speedier horses, giving her a tactical advantage over Cambodia. Then we’ll see if she can summon some more oomph in the lane.

#12 CHEEKABOO is an honest Cal-bred who has earned her keep, but she hasn’t won in a long time—and she’s still looking for her N2X win. This is a pretty salty group she has to face today, so she’s going to need a career-best—and at five-years-old, that doesn’t seem likely.

#13 VAGABOND PRINCESS (AE) will need some luck to draw in—and then she’ll need even more luck to get the victory, since she hasn’t been able to beat overnight-stakes foes back East.

SELECTIONS

1. #7 CAMBODIA – Defending champ enters this off sharp prep win.
2. #9 VASILIKA – Must answer class question but is going great guns right now.
3. #11 MADAME STRIPES (ARG) – Has hit the board twice behind the top choice.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 MEAL TICKET – She’ll need to prove her class, but her come-home times suggest she could contend for a slice with the right pace set-up.

WAGERING STRATEGY

#7 CAMBODIA looks pretty tough, so she’ll be the key horse in the exotics, since she’s unlikely to offer any value on the win end.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Exactas: #7 CAMBODIA with #1 MEAL TICKET, #2 SOPHIE P, #9 VASILIKA, #11 MADAME STRIPES ($40).

$5 Trifecta: #7 CAMBODIA with #1 MEAL TICKET and #9 VASILIKA with #11 MADAME STRIPES ($10).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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