$300,000 Del Mar Debutante (G1) – Del Mar

Race 4 (Saturday, September 1, 2018: 6:30 p.m./ET; 3:30 p.m./PT)

7-furlongs on the main track (two-year-old fillies)

The West Coast counterpart to the East Coast’s Spinaway (G1) didn’t draw nearly as big of a field, but what it lacks in numbers, it sure makes up in quality, as there are some potential monsters in this group. Interestingly, Baffert sent Chasing Yesterday (American Pharoah’s little half-sis) to Saratoga while he kept Mother Mother here.

#1 BOUJIE GIRL has already outrun her pedigree, picking up black type after running third in the Sorrento (G2), despite hailing from a $5K sire. Unfortunately, she has to face the foe who beat her in the Sorrento (G2), and she has to break from the dreaded rail. She has ability, but the big girls are going to have to falter today for her to get the nod.

#2 BRILL cost a million bucks last year, and she looked like a million bucks when she broke her maiden despite bobbling at the start in a five-furlong race earlier this meet, easily beating a gal who then went on to run second in the Sorrento (G2). The sky is the limit here.

#3 WATCH ME BURN, supplemented to the race at a cost of $10K, has two wins to her name, and that’s the most in the field. Unfortunately, those wins came against far weaker company, so she’s in for a rude awakening today once she sees what Brill and Mother Mother look like. I won’t ever knock a gal who is coming off two dominating victories, but she looks like a pace factor to me.

#4 MOTHER MOTHER was 3/5 on debut for Baffert, and she ran to those odds, totally destroying five other gals in that six-furlong race. She looked like a good thing, and the fact that she’s competed at six-furlongs while Brill has only raced five-furlongs means she might have a slight fitness advantage over that foe. Then again, Brill did have some trouble in her debut and she still won convincingly.

#5 BELLAFINA will certainly be a lot of players’ top pick after winning the Sorrento (G2) in wire fashion and putting up a gaudy 94 Beyer Speed Figure, beating nine other girls after setting a quick pace and running them off their heels. She won by 4-1/4 lengths, which is a wide margin of victory, but she did look a little green late in the race, making me wonder if she’s going to move forward today while having to run an extra furlong. She cost $800K back in March of this year, so expectations have always been high—and there is ability here—but I prefer the other two.

SELECTIONS

1. #2 BRILL – She cost a million bucks for a reason.
2. #4 MOTHER MOTHER – One of many talented Baffert juveniles.
3. #5 BELLAFINA – She’s a fast horse, but she’ll need to clean up her act in the final sixteenth.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 BOUJIE GIRL – If she catches a golden rail, maybe she can pick up another slice.

WAGERING STRATEGY

It’s tough to make money in a short field with two logical choices, so it’s time to play an ‘ice-cold’ Dave Weaver style exacta, using #2 BRILL on top of #4 MOTHER MOTHER.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Exacta: #2 BRILL with #4 MOTHER MOTHER

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