Race 10 (Saturday, September 1, 2018: 6:13 pm./ET; 3:13 p.m./PT)
7-furlongs on the main track (two-year-old fillies)
It’s closing weekend of the boutique summer meets, so that means a bevvy of juvenile races to gear up for the fall. Saratoga’s showcase for two-year-old fillies comes in the $350K Spinaway (G1), a seven-furlong main-track affair, which drew a full 12-horse field, including a few West Coast invaders who apparently wanted no part of the solid California contingent back home in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). Also note that Pletcher has emptied the barn, entering three gals to contest this race.
#1 CASSIES DREAMER was 13/10 in her debut against four other $50K maiden-claimers. She won like a favorite is supposed to win, and she was claimed out of that race by Barclay Tagg, an old-school trainer who doesn’t really play the claim-game, so clearly he must have seen something he really liked because he’s now entered her in this stakes race. That said, the rail draw is no picnic, and she’ll face a stern class test today.
#2 BABY NINA was 3/5 in her debut at Thistledown, and she was beaten a city block. She then went off at 5/2 in a stakes race, also at Thistledown, and aired, winning by nine-lengths. Clearly, Loooch Racing has believed in her ability all along, but this is a far cry from the Ohio-breds she’s been facing.
#3 VIRGINIA ELOISE, the first of three Pletcher entrants, was 2/1 in the Adirondack (G2), which is the local prep for this event, and she ran a creditable second, coming from way off the pace to just miss despite not seeming to get over the ‘good’ Saratoga track that day. She’s eligible to take a step forward, especially with added ground, but do note that she did get a very hot pace last time to flatter her late run.
#4 CATHERINETHEGREAT has an abundance of talent, and she showed that off when she set a quick pace in the Schuylerville (G3) on opening weekend and never looked back, destroying nine other gals in visually impressive fashion. I like that she skipped the Adirondack (G2) so she could be a fresh horse for this, and I see no reason why she won’t run another solid race, especially since it doesn’t look like she needs the lead.
#5 NONNA MADELINE, the second Pletcher, ran a valiant second to Catherinethegreat in the Schuylerville (G3), grinding away after a slow start to pick up a decent check—but note that she was a beaten favorite. That grindy style will help her today at seven-furlongs, but she’ll need to move forward to turn the tables on her main rival.
#6 SIPPICAN HARBOR broke her maiden last time in wire-to-wire fashion, winning by an astonishing 17-lengths (not a typo!). Granted, it was in an off-the-turf affair, so she wasn’t facing the stiffest competition. She faces a major class test today, and it’s unlikely to me that she’ll be able to wire this field.
#7 CHASING YESTERDAY invades from the West Coast for the white-haired Hall of Famer Baffert, who also trains another fast filly named Mother Mother, who will be contesting the Del Mar Debutante (G1) today as well. This gal is a half to American Pharoah, so it’s no surprise she was bet off the board in her debut (3/10 odds)—and it’s also no surprise that she won for fun, looking stronger as that 5.5-furlong race got longer. Plus we all know that Baffert doesn’t ship to Saratoga to visit the Shake Shack.
#8 GUACAMOLE, the third and final Pletcher runner, has never crossed the wire first, earning her sole victory via disqualification. She followed up that gift with a respectable third in the Adirondack (G3), but she was no match for her stablemate. She has the look of a gal who could pick up the pieces late, but she’ll need a big step forward for the win.
#9 BELLA CIAO invades from Gulfstream Park, where she just broke her maiden in a six-horse field. The waters get considerably deeper here today.
#10 REFLECT, another West Coast invader, ran a well-beaten fifth in the Sorrento (G2), so it’s no surprise that Keith Desormeaux ships her here so he doesn’t have to face the same foes again at Del Mar. I’m not crazy about the fact that brother Kent didn’t bother to make the trek, however, so we’ll see if Franco can get a good run out of a gal who showed talent in her debut but will need to do better today. In her defense, Kent did make an early move last time, so maybe the jock change will work out okay.
#11 RESTLESS RIDER is a perfect two-for-two despite being a non-Lasix user, and it looks for all the world that she has been pointing to this race ever since she won the Debutante at Churchill Downs, despite having some trouble. She draws a good outside post, where she can just track the pace before making her move. She does face stiffer competition today, but she has shown enough ability to merit strong consideration in here.
#12 LOVE MY HONEY was 17/10 in her debut, and she ran to those odds, winning fairly easily. It was a decent race, but it came back a little on the slow side, so if you’re a speed-figure fan, you have to think she’s just not as fast as the top few. Sure, she’s eligible to improve in her second start, but there are others in here who seem just a tad farther along.
SELECTIONS
- #4 CATHERINETHEGREAT – Cold barn, but owns a dominating win over the track.
- #7 CHASING YESTERDAY – Baffert & Smith super dangerous at The Spa.
- #11 RESTLESS RIDER – Has done nothing wrong in two career starts.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #10 REFLECT – Probably not good enough to win but certainly good enough to pick up a minor award and spice up the exotics.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I think my top two selections are legit, so I’ll box them in an exacta and then key a few runners underneath in tris to help juice the payout if the big girls run one-two.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$20 Exacta Box: #4 CATHERINETHEGREAT and #7 CHASING YESTERDAY ($40).
$2 Trifecta: #4 CATHERINETHEGREAT and #7 CHASING YESTERDAY with #4 CATHERINETHEGREAT and #7 CHASING YESTERDAY with #3 VIRGINIA ELOISE, #5 NONNA MADELINE, #10 REFLECT, #11 RESTLESS RIDER, #12 LOVE MY HONEY ($10)
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