$500,000 Test (G1) – Saratoga

Race 8 (Saturday, August 4, 2018: 5:10 p.m./ET: 2:10 p.m./PT)

7 furlongs on the main track (three-year-old fillies)

The demanding seven-furlong distance is always a test of speed and stamina, which makes it very appropriate that the first Grade 1 of the weekend at The Spa is called the Test (G1). Let’s analyze all nine runners in the field:

#1 NORMA’S CHARM has just one career win from 15 lifetime starts, that lone victory coming at Parx in a maiden special weight. Last time out, she finished last at 76/1 in The Victory Ride (G3). Has little to no chance today.

#2 SPECTACTOR makes her second start off a three-month break for trainer Michelle Nevin, who wins at a 22% clip with runners making their second start off a layoff between 61-180 days. Note this gal finished second to MIDNIGHT BISOU two starts ago in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) so she has class. Interesting item.

#3 ALTER MOON makes her first start for the Chad Brown barn, is two-for-three at this seven furlong distance and most recently won the Azalea Stakes at Gulfstream by five lengths. However, her only two graded stakes try were the only two times in which she finished off the board, but both races came going a route of ground. Javier Castellano opts to ride this filly over #2 SPECTACTOR. Another interesting one to consider.

#4 CLASSY ACT re-added blinkers and defeated #9 KELLY’S HUMOR by almost four lengths in an allowance race going this distance on June 1, then came back to run second, beaten just a neck in the Victory Ride (G3) last time out. Not out of the question.

#5 CATHEDRAL READER easily won her career debut by a half dozen lengths in a maiden special weight event at Churchill Downs, then returned a month later and ran second in an allowance race over a sloppy track as the favorite at the aforementioned track. Trainer Dallas Stewart opts to bump this gal up in class but we have seen him pop at a price before and her only fast track win was a beauty.

#6 SEPERATIONOFPOWERS won the one-turn Frizette (G1) before finishing a better than looked fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last fall. She was given eighth months off and came back in her first start as a three-year-old to run fourth in an allowance, though it’s worth noting she had a rough trip. She now has a race under her belt for trainer Chad Brown, who wins at a 21% clip with runners making their second start off a layoff longer than 180 days, and Jose Ortiz rides back. Dangerous.

#7 MIA MISCHIEF ran worse than second for the first time in her eight race career last time out, when she finished fifth (only beaten two lengths) in the Victory Ride (G3) as the favorite. This filly won the Eight Belles (G2) going this distance on Kentucky Oaks Day and earned a career high Beyer Speed Figure (97) that afternoon. Her trainer (Steve Asmussen) is having an outstanding meet: through Wednesday, he has won with 10 of his 27 (37%) starters at Saratoga.

#8 MINIT TO STARDOM looks to extend her unbeaten record to four wins in a row. This Louisiana-bred won a state-bred maiden special weight to kick off her career in November and came back to win a state-bred stakes one month later, both by open lengths. In her most recent appearance, she won an allowance race at Churchill Downs by six while earning a 92 Beyer speed figure. May be the real deal?

#9 KELLY’S HUMOR cuts back from a route to a sprint after a third place finish in the Indiana Oaks (G3) on July 14. Her most impressive effort may have come back in April when she ran second at this distance to classy filly GAS STATION SUSHI in the Beaumont (G3) at Keeneland. High percentage trainer Brad Cox wins at a 38% clip cutting his runners back from a route to a sprint. A possibility in a wide open race.

SELECTIONS

1. #6 SEPERATIONOFPOWERS – Lone Grade I winner in the field.
2. #9 KELLY’S HUMOR – Cuts back in distance.
3. #7 MIA MISCHIEF – Barn is en fuego.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 SPECTATOR – Has room to improve.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box all four of my selections in exactas and trifectas and put my remaining two dollars on my longshot value play.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$2 Exacta Box: #2 SPECTATOR and #6 SEPERATIONOFPOWERS and #7 MIA MISCHIEF and #9 KELLY’S HUMOR ($24).

$1 Trifecta Box:  #2 SPECTATOR and #6 SEPERATIONOFPOWERS and #7 MIA MISCHIEF and #9 KELLY’S HUMOR ($24).

$2 Win: #2 SPECTATOR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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