Race 9 (Saturday, August 4, 2018: 5:46 p.m./ET; 2:46 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds and upward)
Last year, GUN RUNNER won the Whitney (G1) before going on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the Pegasus Invitational (G1) and the 2017 Horse of the Year Eclipse Award. 365 days later, eighth older horses enter the Whitney (G1) in search of a Grade I victory to add to their resume and hopefully, a Fall season close to what GUN RUNNER had. Let’s discuss the field:
#1 TAPWRIT looks to pick up his first win since a victory in the Belmont Stakes (G1) last year. He makes his third start off a nine-and-a-half month break for world-renowned trainer Todd Pletcher. In his first start off the layoff, he finished a sub-par third in an allowance at Belmont, then followed that up with a fifth place finish in the Suburban (G1) behind #6 DIVERSIFY and #5 DISCREET LOVER. Keep in mind he is 0-for-2 at Saratoga and regular rider Jose Ortiz opts to ride #7 GOOD SAMARITAN so John Velazquez picks up the mount.
#2 BACKYARD HEAVEN holds five career starts to his name. After winning the Alysheba Stakes (G2) in May, he threw in a clunker (maybe due to nighttime racing?) when finishing sixth as the 4/5 favorite in the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. Chad Brown trains and we all know it’s hard to ignore any of his runners with the way he’s winning these days.
#3 DALMORE most recently finished ahead of #8 MCCRAKEN in the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker (G3) going this mile-and-an-eighth distance. His only career stakes victory came in the Affirmed (G3) against straight three years olds in 2016 and he has never faced a field as tough as this. Looks like he’ll need to put up a much-improved effort to have a shot in this spot.
#4 MIND YOUR BISCUITS is a champion sprinter, picking up Grade I wins in the Golden Shaheen (G1), Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and Malibu Stakes (G1) in some of his previous starts. In his last afternoon appearance, he ran second, beaten a nostril, in the Metropolitan Mile (G1) on Belmont Stakes day. Interestingly enough, this guy has never run in a two turn race and he’ll need to bring his A+ race to be in the hunt against many proven and legit graded stakes horses. He’s got the class to be competitive, but whether he wants to go this far is a major question mark.
#5 DISCREET LOVER went off at 41/1 in the Suburban (G1) on July 7 and ended up out-running his odds, finishing third but beaten almost nine lengths by the winner, #6 DIVERSIFY. Along with having to make up many lengths on the aforementioned rival, the other competitors he faces here are even tougher than what he saw in the Suburban (G1). Longshot.
#6 DIVERSIFY is 9-for-14 lifetime and comes off a gate-to-wire dominating victory in the Suburban (G2), winning the race by over six lengths while going the mile-and-a-quarter distance in a fast 1:59.84 seconds. Six of his nine lifetime wins have come at Belmont so clearly he is a ‘horse for course’, but he did win the Evan Shipman over this track by 11 lengths last year. The one to beat.
#7 GOOD SAMARITAN is an inconsistent colt that has a ton of talent when he decides to put it all together. His last win came three starts ago in the New Orleans Handicap (G3) and his biggest win to date came in the 2017 Jim Dandy (G2) over this track. He’ll be sitting well off the pace early and the good news for him is there should be a projected fast pace to run into, so he will get the right set up. Jose Ortiz hops off Belmont Stakes (G1) winner #1 TAPWRIT to ride this guy, which only adds to the appeal. Trainer Bill Mott is having an outstanding Saratoga: through Wednesday, he has 7 wins from 33 starts (21%).
#8 MCCRAKEN lost as the favorite in the Prairie Meadowns Cornhusker (G3) last time out, finishing third behind #3 DALMORE and 19/1 longshot REMEMBERING RITA. He also finished behind #1 MIND YOUR BISCUITS and #5 DISCREET LOVER in the Metropolitan Mile (G1) when splitting the field in that contest two months ago. His only win this year came in an allowance race. All signs indicate he is a notch or two below the best signed on.
SELECTIONS
- #7 GOOD SAMARITAN – May get the right set up.
- #6 DIVERSIFY – Loves to win.
- #2 BACKYARD HEAVEN – His best makes him dangerous.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 TAPWRIT – Top jockey/trainer combo.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll play an exacta box with my top three choices and make a small win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$7 Exacta Box: #2 BACKYARD HEAVEN and #6 DIVERSIFY and #7 GOOD SAMARITAN ($42).
$8 Win: #7 GOOD SAMARITAN
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