$500,000 West Virginia Derby (G3) – Mountaineer

Race 8 (Saturday, August 4, 2018: 5:35 p.m./ET; 2:35 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)

Mountaineer Race Course’s premier card of the year showcases seven stakes races and the feature race of the meet, the $500,000 West Virginia Derby (G3). World renowned trainers Steve Asmussen and Bob Baffert each ship in a talented three-year-old while up and coming superstar conditioner Brad Cox, top class horseman Graham Motion and Preakness (G1) winning trainer Dale Romans are also represented with one starter each. Let’s analyze each of the nine contenders and try to make some money:

#1 LIONITE finished behind #9 HIGH NORTH and #8 MR FREEZE in the Iowa Derby on July 6. He wheels back a month later to take on the aforementioned rivals as well as some new Southern California shooters in this spot. Two starts ago, the son of QUALITY ROAD won the Prairie Mile by five-and-a-half lengths under jockey David Cabrera, who retains the mount for red-hot trainer Steve Asmussen.

#2 DRAFT PICK was last seen in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3), where he was in front at the eighth pole before getting run down late by #5 ONCE ON WHISKEY. Two starts back, #2 DRAFT PICK won the Affirmed (G3), defeating next out winner (AXELROD) of the $500,000 Indiana Derby (G3). Clearly this guy has some class and has improved with racing age and experience. Dangerous.

#3 CALORIC won a $16,000 claimer at Gulfstream Park in February (which he was claimed from) and has failed to be competitive in four starts since then. His last graded stakes try came in the Ohio Derby (G3) on June 23, where he lost by 10 lengths at 206/1. He’ll be a massive longshot in this spot, too.

#4 KING CAUSE ships in for trainer Doug O’Neill after a five-and-a-quarter length loss to #5 ONCE ON WHISKEY and #2 DRAFT PICK in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). Before that effort, this gelded son of CREATIVE CAUSE finished 10 lengths behind #2 DRAFT PICK in the Affirmed (G3) on June 10 and was a non-factor in the Laz Barrera (G3) one month prior. Has to pick up the pace to be competitive against the best signed on here.

#5 ONCE ON WHISKEY surprised the betting public at 7/1 when the son of BODEMEISTER defeated four other rivals in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3), running down #2 DRAFT PICK in the final strides. That was his first time going two turns and his first try against graded stakes company. Bob Baffert teams up with jockey Flavien Prat, and they win at a 21% clip together. Obvious contender.

#6 RUGBYMAN disappointed in the Dwyer (G3) last time out, finishing 13 lengths behind the victor, Grade I winner FIRENZE FIRE. It’s interesting to see trainer Graham Motion opts to keep the blinkers on this guy even after the flop last time out. This is arguably an easier spot and keep in mind two starts ago this royally bred colt by TAPIT ran a much better than looked second in the Easy Goer Stakes on Belmont Stakes Day, losing by a nose to a solid horse named PRINCE LUCKY. If you think he can rebound his from his last performance, he may be worth a second look.

#7 PAMIR broke his maiden over this track in May by 12 lengths. He most recently crossed the wire second in a turf allowance event, only to be moved up to first via disqualification after a lengthy inquiry against the winner. This colt is facing a whole new level of competition now and speed figures indicate he needs to run significantly faster to be competitive. Would be a big surprise if he were to win this.

#8 MR FREEZE broke his maiden in his career debut, then won an allowance for trainer Dale Romans before suffering his first defeat last time out, losing by a half-length to #9 HIGH NORTH in the Iowa Derby. This colt has never run a bad race in his life and it’s encouraging to see his regular pilot, Robbie Albarado, flies in to ride this dude once again. Not out of the question.

#9 HIGH NORTH has the most experience of anyone in this field, with nine starts to his name. Most recently, he won the Iowa Derby by a half-length as the favorite, rebounding after finishing fourth in the Peter Pan (G3) at Belmont Park behind graded stakes winners BLENDED CITIZEN and CORE BELIEFS. This guy sports a bullet five-furlong drill heading into this race, retains the services of jockey Florent Geroux and is conditioned by a trainer (Brad Cox) who is winning at a white-hot 30% clip this year. All signs indicate he’s ready to run another big race.

SELECTIONS

1. #9 HIGH NORTH – Going well for a top barn.
2. #2 DRAFT PICK – Getting better as he matures.
3. #5 ONCE ON WHISKEY – Two words: ‘Bob Baffert’.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 MR FREEZE – Consistent type only lost by a half-length to our top pick last time out.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #9 HIGH NORTH

 

 

 

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