Race 8 (Saturday, August 4, 2018: 8:30 p.m./ET; 5:30 p.m./PT)
Mile and a sixteenth on the turf (fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up)
An uber competitive field is signed on to compete in this eight-and-a-half furlong turf puzzle, so let’s try to put the pieces together correctly:
#1 BEAU RECALL (IRE) adds blinkers and gets top turf jockey Corey Nakatani for her 15th lifetime start. In her last two races, she finished fourth both times, behind #6 STORM THE HILL, #7 MADAME STRIPES and #9 ANCIENT SECRET. Her most recent win came three starts ago, when she won the Royal Heroine (G2) at a flat mile. However, off her last two efforts, she’ll need to run faster to win today.
#2 SASSY LITTLE LILA is another one that has lost to a number of others in here. Last time out, she finished behind #6 STORM THE HILL, #9 ANCIENT SECRET and #1 BEAU RECALL in the Wilshire (G3) coming off a two-and-a-half month break, and also finished behind #1 BEAU RECALL and #7 MADAME STRIPES in the Royal Heroine (G2) two races back. Will be attending the early pace.
#3 MIDNIGHT CROSSING (IRE) is the second (of three) Baltas entrants in the race and has lost five races in a row. Longshot.
#4 HALLIE BELLE ships in from the Midwest for trainer Mike Stidham while jockey Joe Bravo flies in to ride and they win at a 29% clip when teaming up. This filly cuts back in distance after finishing third behind Grade 1 winner DADDY’S LIL DARLING in the Modesty (G3) at Arlington Park going a mile-and-three-sixteenths. Should be very fit cutting back in distance and may fit in with this group. Looks live.
#5 TISBUTADREAM (IRE) races on Lasix for the first time while moving to the barn of Ben Cecil. Her last race resulted in a 17-length loss in May to Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) winner WUHEIDA. Inclined to give her a race in the U.S. before playing.
#6 STORM THE HILL won the Wilshire (G3) in a 9/1 upset for trainer Phil D’Amato, who saddles a duo of runners in this spot. She’ll need to prove she can repeat that performance while facing another tough field.
#7 MADAME STRIPES (ARG) freshens up since losing by a neck in the Gamely (G1). You have to go back to January 15 to find her last win, when she defeated six other fillies and mares while earning a career high 98 Beyer Speed Figure in the Megahertz (G3). Her lone race at this mile and a sixteenth distance resulted in a win, when she won the Osunitas Stakes over this course last year. Rafael Bejarano, who rode this filly in the Gamely (G1), opts to ride #6 STORM THE HILL, so up and coming young talent Geovanni Franco picks up the ride for Hall of Famer Neil Drysdale.
#8 SOPHIE P (GB) won the Gamely (G1) at 14/1 and came back to finish sixth in her most recent start, the Wilshire (G3), behind #6 STORM THE HILL and #9 ANCIENT SECRET. Her last two races are a good example of her form as she is a pretty inconsistent sort. She can be effective when putting it all together, but whether she will run her “A” race is always a major question mark. Her inconsistency has me looking elsewhere.
#9 ANCIENT SECRET is a little more consistent than most of the others we have discussed. The second Phil D’Amato entrant comes into this off a solid second place finish behind stablemate #6 STORM THE HILL in The Wilshire (G3). Other notable good performances include a second place effort two starts ago to talented sprinter BELVOIR BAY and a win back in 2016 in the Lake George (G2) at Saratoga going this eight and a half furlong distance. Big money rider Mike Smith hops aboard for the first time; another to think about in a deep field.
#10 FAHAN MURA went straight to the front, got an uncontested lead and took the field gate to wire in her most recent start, the Osunitas Stakes, over this turf course last month. She is five-for-six this year, with her only loss came going a mile-and-a-quarter in the New York (G2) at Belmont Park against next out graded stakes winners SISTERCHARLIE and DADDY’S LIL DARLING, as well as Grade I victor FOURSTAR CROOK. May prove tough to reel in on the front end.
#11 CAMBODIA is the defending champion of the Yellow Ribbon (G2). In fact, it’s pretty clear she loves this turf course. Not only did this gal win this race last year but she also won the John C. Mabee (G2) and finished third in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1). Her last two efforts, both in Grade 1 races on the East Coast, were off the board finishes. That said, she faces easier here and gets back to a course she loves.
#12 PANTSONFIRE (IRE) completes the trio of entrants for trainer Richard Baltas, with her last win coming in an allowance race four starts ago. Looks to be in tough.
SELECTIONS
- #11 CAMBODIA – Defending champ.
- #4 HALLIE BELLE – Invader fits with these.
- #10 FAHAN MURA – Come and catch her.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #9 ANCIENT SECRET – Big money Mike Smith in the saddle.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top three choices in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Exacta Box: #4 HALLIE BELL and #10 FAHAN MURA and #11 CAMBODIA ($30).
$20 Win: #11 CAMBODIA
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