PLAYING THE SUMMER 1 ¼ MILE STAKES RACES

This weekend, Belmont Park features two Grade 1 races at the classic mile-and-one-quarter distance. Next Saturday (July 14^th), Delaware Park runs the $750,000 Grade 1 Delaware Handicap at the same distance. And in August, there are five Grade I races at ten furlongs: the Travers and Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, and the Secretariat Stakes and Arlington Million at Arlington Park.

What used to be a ‘classic’ distance is now more like a marathon for most contemporary runners since there are only a handful of these Grade I dirt races at this distance. Besides the aforementioned events, there is the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the Santa Anita Handicap and the Gold Cup (formerly the Hollywood Gold Cup). Turf marathons remain more plentiful in North America, but the overall trend is clearly towards less and less long distance top-caliber stakes races.

Few horses that dominate the mile to mile-and-an-eighth stakes races are able to duplicate their best efforts going a mile-and-a-quarter. It is rare for an Arrogate, American Pharroah, Skip Away, Cigar, Best Pal, or Alysheba to come along and run at this distance as well or better than at shorter route events.

Since Cigars and Best Pals are rare indeed, most mile-and-a-quarter races in recent years have been won by one of two types of runners.

The first type is a top middle distance runner stretched to the limit, like California Chrome, Silver Charm or Holy Bull. Their mile-and-a-quarter races won’t have the top-notch speed figures at shorter distances, but are still good enough to win. These top talents can win on raw speed, but are vulnerable to a fast pace, setting it up for an off-the-pace closer.

The second type of winner is the less athletic stayer. Runners like Point of Entry (seven-for-eight beyond nine furlongs) or previous stayers like Sea Hero, Tiznow, or Funny Cide often fail to dominate stakes at shorter distances, but can beat just about any good middle distance horse stretched to last a mile-and-a-quarter.

Any horse that has previously won a Grade I or Grade II race at the 10 furlong distance has a huge edge over runners that have superior speed figures at shorter distances yet remain unproven at a mile-and-a-quarter.

If no entrant has tried a mile-and-a-quarter, the judgment call comes down to a comparison of speed figures at shorter routes of ground, versus indications in the bloodlines that the added distance is manageable.

Top speed figures have a mesmerizing effect on the betting public. It makes more sense to side with a horse bred for the distance with relatively competitive figures than to back the top speed figure producer and hope the distance doesn’t seriously diminish the performance. Do not confuse this type of contender with a slow runner that may be bred to run all day, yet has not shown that he (or she) is capable of producing stakes-quality speed. That type of plodder almost never wins.

Requirements To Play Mile-And-A-Quarter Stakes Races:

– Favor horses proven at 10 furlongs even over runners with superior speed figures earned at shorter distances.

– If no runner has distance experience, side with a horse bred to last a longer distance, yet still has earned speed figures competitive enough to put him/her in the same zip code as the top figure horses.

– Avoid slow runners bred to run marathon distances, yet lacking stakes-quality speed, for they are too unlikely to produce an upset win – even as longshots. 

 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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