Race 9 (Saturday, July 7, 2018: 6:18 p.m./ET; 3:18 p.m./PT)
Mile and a quarter on the main track (four-year-olds and upward)
With a $700K purse on the line, eleven older horses have shown up to contest the 10-furlong Suburban (G2), always a fun race in the handicapping division as we head toward the boutique summer meetings. There should be an honest clip in here, making this a fairly run 132nd renewal:
#1 NAME CHANGER invades from the mid-Atlantic, where he was beating up on AOC runners. His forays into the graded-stakes ranks, however, haven’t been nearly as good, so this five-year-old is really going to need a big step forward today to beat the best in here. Expect him to get a good tracking trip from the rail, then we’ll see if he can threaten in the lane.
#2 WAR STORY is a cool old boy who has won more than $2.6 million, and that’s usually because he always shows up for work, putting forth yeoman-like efforts no matter what the level of competition. That said, Hoppertunity just beat him on the square in the 12-furlong Brooklyn (G2), even though this guy—who had won that race back in 2017—had the lead in the lane. Maybe he was a little short off a brief freshening, so he should be tighter today, especially while cutting back in distance (though he is 0-for-4 at today’s 10-panels).
#3 ZANOTTI has tactical speed, so he should get a good trip—but he’s had good trips before against lesser competition and he hasn’t really shown that extra oomph in the lane. Two back, he had the lead most of the way in the Excelsior (G3) and was run down by Discreet Lover. He’ll need a career best while coming off a May layoff.
#4 TAPWRIT, last year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) victor, looked like a short horse last time when coming off an August 2017 layoff to run third in an AOC in a race where he wasn’t even the favorite—which suggests to me that the word was out that that race was merely a prep for this more lucrative spot. Pletcher kills it when he has a race to point to, and it looks to me like this guy is sitting on a big one as he embarks on a second-half of the year campaign.
#5 DR. DORR, the first Baffert entrant, has really transitioned well from a crack sprinter into a solid middle-distance horse, winning the Californian (G2) two races back and running a decent second to top handicap horse Accelerate in the Gold Cup (G1). He has plenty of early speed, so he’ll be paving the way for his stablemate should this one falter in the final sixteenth. You can never count out a Baffert dirt horse, but this guy will have to show more stick in the lane at today’s 10-furlongs.
#6 DISCREET LOVER looked good when rallying from off the pace in the Excelsior (G3) four back, but his subsequent efforts haven’t been nearly as good, though I suppose you could make excuses for his last three races (three back was over a bull ring; two back was a sloppy track; last time was the vaunted Grade 1 Met Mile). He’s not impossible for a small slice in your superfecta at a huge price, since he should just be grinding away though the lane, but he’ll have to do a lot better today for a chance at the win.
#7 TAKE YOUR GUNS is a lightly raced four-year-old who ran evenly in the Brooklyn (G2) last time (while encountering some trouble) only to get passed by Hoppertunity. Both horses had zero pace to close into, so I’m willing to upgrade this one a bit off that race—but will he be able to outkick Hoppertunity today with that veteran showing no real signs of slowing down? I like that this one will be fit on the turnback, and there is plenty of room for improvement here—but most important, we all know that Brown trains his horses to finish races, so at the very least, you can expect this one to be part of the exotics if not the win.
#8 HOPPERTUNITY has earned $4.6 million over his long career, and that’s impressive no matter how you slice it. He just won the Brooklyn (G2), showing off a strong stretch run despite having no pace at all to close into, while back in 2016, he took the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), so he’s a perfect two-for-two over this Belmont configuration—which is no surprise since he’s always been a blue-collar grinder who has also exhibited plenty of class. I suppose it’s quite possible this old boy regresses a little bit after his peak effort last time, but he’s tough to ignore based on his body of work.
#9 SORRY ERIK has proven to be an astute $20K claim, having won three AOCs since Desormeaux took him as a three-year-old in January of last year. His forays into the graded-stakes ranks, however, haven’t been that good, so he has a major class question to answer today—but the fact that he’s a lightly raced four-year-old who is making the third start of his form cycle suggests that there is plenty more to give. Will it be enough?
#10 DIVERSIFY, the local hero, is a New York–bred who has never finished out of the exacta here at Belmont—talk about a horse-for-course! His tactical speed has always been his best asset, so I’m sure Ortiz will look to bring it to the others early just like he did in last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), where he set the pace and never looked back. While that seemed to be a weak renewal of that race at the time, note that he did beat two sophomores who have turned into pretty solid handicap horses this year (Good Samaritan and Pavel). He enters this off a sharp prep against state-breds, and since he’s drawn outside Dr. Dorr, he could get the perfect stalking trip if that one goes to the lead. That said, I think he gets outkicked by someone late.
#11 THE LIEUTENANT, a half-brother to Triple Crown winner Justify, enters this off a terrific victory in the All American (G3) going a mile on the synth at Golden Gate. That was his first stakes win after a couple of failed attempts on dirt, including defeats to Dr. Dorr. So did a lightbulb go off or did this one just move up a ton on synth last time? It’s quite possible he’s turned a corner, but he still has plenty of lengths to make up on Dr. Dorr, let alone Hoppertunity, who beat him soundly back in October. He’s not impossible for a slice, but he’ll need a career best for the win.
SELECTIONS
- #4 TAPWRIT – Seems poised for his very best today.
- #8 HOPPERTUNITY – All heart.
- #5 DR. DORR – Should win the early battle; not sure about the war though.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY: #7 TAKE YOUR GUNS – Should move forward off last, cutting back and getting a projected solid pace to close into.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I have to think #4 TAPWRIT will offer some value on the win-end, given the presence of the two Bafferts and the always honest War Story and Diversify. I’ll bet him to win and then back him up in exactas with the two Bafferts (assuming one of them is going to fire) and Take Your Guns.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$35 Win: #4 TAPWRIT ($35)
$5 Exactas: #5 DR. DORR, #7 TAKE YOUR GUNS, and #8 HOPPERTUNITY with #4 TAPWRIT ($15).
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