$1,200,000 Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) – Belmont Park

Race 10 (Saturday, July 7, 2018: 6:50 p.m./ET; 3:50 p.m./PT)

Mile and a quarter on the Inner Turf (three-year-olds)

A phenomenal Belmont Park Saturday card gets even better with this year’s running of the $1.2 million Belmont Derby (G1), a 10-furlong inner-turf affair for three-year-olds. We’ve got a quality group assembled here, and even though all eyes will be on the one-two finishers of the Pennine Ridge (G3), this is a salty group with plenty of places to land if you’re willing to look beyond those two:

#1 CHANNEL CAT, the first Pletcher entrant, ran third to two of today’s fancied foes in the Pennine Ridge (G3), just kind of grinding along in that 9-furlong race. The breeding suggests the added ground will help, but will it be enough to turn the tables on several foes who have already beaten him? Maybe you can use for a minor award.

#2 ENCUMBERED did good work as a two-year-old last summer at Del Mar, but after an ill-fated run on the dirt in the FrontRunner (G1), the wheels fell off and he hit the shelf after running half a race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). His comeback race this year wasn’t horrible, where he showed speed before getting inhaled to finish fifth, but he was coming off a long layoff and could certainly build off that effort—though I’m not sure he’ll be as effective going today’s distance.

#3 ANALYZE IT showed that equines are not machines when he surprisingly lost the Pennine Ridge (G3) to Catholic Boy after looking invincible mid-stretch at twenty-cents on the dollar. He’s capable of turning the tables on that foe, but one has to ask if he’s going to be nearly as impressive as he was in his first three starts while going today’s 10-furlongs. No doubt, there is an abundance of talent here, and who am I to doubt Chad Brown if he thinks this one can move forward today going longer, but I also don’t want to take too short of a price on a horse who had no real excuse last time out when coughing up the lead late.

#4 HUNTING HORN (IRE) looked good beating Group 3 foes on June 21 at Ascot, winning at today’s distance, so it’s no surprise he ends up here off his solid European form. It’s also encouraging that his best race came on good-to-firm ground, so he might be able to take another step forward today on firm turf and adding Lasix. Ignore O’Brien and Moore at your own peril.

#5 MARAUD, the second Pletcher runner, is a pretty honest foe, but he’s already been handled by a few of these, so he’ll need to step up his game today. He got caught up in a speed duel last time, so you can be forgiving of that one-mile race, especially since all of his wins have come going 8.5-furlongs, where he’s logged in more-than-respectable come-home times. He’s not impossible with his very best, but he does look like a cut below some really nice ones in here.

#6 KINGSTAR (FR) looks to be sitting on a peak race today, making the second start of his sophomore campaign after doing decent work in his native France. That said, he could only manage second in a Group 3 last year, and his comeback race was an easy win against a weak group on soft turf. I typically upgrade these French horses because they are used to going a good gallop, like we usually do here in the States, but this seems like a tough spot for a horse with just three career starts.

#7 CATHOLIC BOY anointed himself as a legitimate threat in this division when he beat the much-ballyhooed Analyze It in the Pennine Ridge (G3). He won the battle and the war in that roughly run race, so it will be interesting to see if he regresses off that peak effort—especially since I’m sure that rival trainer Chad Brown will be getting to the very bottom of Analyze It today, making this guy’s chances to beat that foe yet again a very tall order.

#8 HAWKISH scored an eye-popping victory in the Pennsylvania Mile (G3), inhaling foes as if they were standing still. Granted, he was the favorite, so he was expected to win—but he did it the right way. In fact, all three of his mile victories have been very impressive-looking—but the one time he raced beyond a mile, he kind of flattened out. Will distance be an issue for him today? We often see these miler types lose their quick turn of foot when going longer, but Toner is one of the most underrated trainers in America, and I have to think he’ll have this one ready to show his best today even with the added ground.

#9 MY BOY JACK was 6/1 in the Kentucky Derby (G1), much to everyone’s—but not mine—amusement. He was a legitimate contender in that race, even if his odds were ridiculously short in that big field. The sloppy track coupled with his strong come-home times on dirt made him an appealing exotics key in that race, but after a brutal trip filled with traffic, the best he could manage was fifth. He’s been freshened up since that taxing effort, and the smart Desormeaux brothers have him back on turf today, the surface of his maiden-breaker (which happened to come in an overnight-stakes race). I’ve always liked him, and I think he has a good future ahead of him, but he’s a dead closer who will need everything to go his way today. Plus, he’s facing some serious turf animals.

SELECTIONS

1. #8 HAWKISH – Eye-popping (and clock-stopping final quarter-mile) run last time.
2. #3 ANALYZE IT – Lost a little luster last time but no denying his sheer talent.
3. #4 HUNTING HORN (IRE) – Proven at today’s distance for top international connections.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#6 KINGSTAR (FR) – Looks overmatched based on light French form, but he’s the X-factor in a very competitive race.

WAGERING STRATEGY

This race is all about the board, as we’ll see which of the top-three (#3 ANALYZE IT, #7 CATHOLIC BOY, and #8 HAWKISH) take the most money—but there’s little to gain by using all three in your exotics, so let’s take a stand with #8 HAWKISH as our key horse and use him with #3 ANALYZE IT in exactas, and then in trifectas with some of our longer-priced contenders.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$5 Trifecta: #8 HAWKISH with #3 ANALYZE IT with #4 HUNTING HORN (IRE), #6 KINGSTAR (FR), and #9 MY BOY JACK ($15).

$25 Exacta: #8 HAWKISH with #3 ANALYZE IT

$10 Exacta: #3 ANALYZE IT with #8 HAWKISH

 

 

 

 

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