$200,000 Great Lady M. (G2) – Los Alamitos

Race 8 (Saturday, July 7, 2018: 7:28 p.m./ET; 4:28 p.m./PT)

6 ½ furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds and upward, fillies and mares)

This year’s renewal of The Great Lady M. (G2) attracted a short field, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t lack quality, as we’ve got some nice ladies in here, two of whom should figure big-time in the division’s championship race in early November at Churchill Downs:

#1 PHANTOM PROTON looked like she was going to give Marley’s Freedom all she could handle two back, but that foe easily dispatched her in that 6-furlong event. Don’t get me wrong, this gal ran well; she was just no match for her rival. In fact, she ran so well that she came back after that race to clear her N2X hurdle, so she’s still in good form. Unfortunately, she has to break from the rail today, and that’s going to be an issue, since she’ll have to use some speed to avoid getting sawed off leaving the backstretch.

#2 SKYE DIAMONDS was nothing short of spectacular last year, winning two graded-stakes races before checking in a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Her comeback race this year was pretty darn good, grinding away to just miss in the Las Flores (G3)—unfortunately, she didn’t move forward off that race; in fact, she regressed badly in her next two starts. I like that Spawr has regrouped, and this gal loves this track, so I’m willing to give her another shot today to make amends.

#3 TURKISH TABBY is 0-for-2 on dirt, so she seems up against it here versus the two big gals, but she did hang with Grade 1 ladies for half a race when contesting the pace in the 9-furlong Santa Margarita (G1), so at least she’s squared off against quality animals. Perhaps the biggest negative, however, is that she hasn’t won since December 2016, so it would take a herculean effort for her to get the nod today.

#4 MARLEY’S FREEDOM did good work for Bob Hess, Jr., but she absolutely freaked last time when joining the Baffert barn—destroying four other graded-stakes ladies in the Desert Stormer (G3). She also has Skye Diamonds on form when she beat her three back in the Santa Monica (G2), so it would seem that this gal has this field over a barrel—but there is also a real chance that she bounces off that monster effort while Skye Diamonds has regrouped and should be siting on a good one today. Is that enough? We’ll see, but I can tell you that this gal will be a big odds-on choice.

#5 BEST OF ME has plenty of speed, so Pedroza will gun hard from the rail and hope for the best, but she is a three-year-old who is facing elders for the first time after just clearing her N1X hurdle. Never count out a Peter Miller trainee, but this one needs a big step forward (and the two big gals need to not fire) for her to get her picture taken today.

SELECTIONS

1. #2 SKYE DIAMONDS – Horse-for-course with plenty of back-class.
2. #4 MARLEY’S FREEDOM – The obvious choice who will offer zero value.
3. #1 PHANTOM PROTON – Needs a career-best, but is capable for a slice.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 TURKISH TABBY – She could suck up for a minor placing if the race falls apart.

WAGERING STRATEGY

It will be very tough to make money in this race with the top-two towering over the field, so let’s try a trifecta and just crush it many times, using the better-priced horse on top with some bombs in third. If you want to play it safe, feel free to use Marley’s Freedom on top as well.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$25 Trifecta: #2 SKYE DIAMONDS with #4 MARLEY’S FREEDOM with #1 PHANTOM PROTON and #3 TURKISH TABBY ($50)

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