$1,000,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) – Belmont Park

Race 8 (Saturday, July 7, 2018: 5:46 p.m./ET; 2:46 p.m./PT)

Mile and a quarter on the Inner Turf (three-year-old fillies)

What a fine renewal of the $1 million Belmont Oaks (G1), a 10-furlong turf affair for 3-year-old fillies, which counts two Chad Brown trainees, a few European invaders, and two SoCal shippers, amongst others, in this competitive ten-horse field. There doesn’t seem to be a clear standout in here (or a clear pace picture), so if you’re playing multi-race wagers, you might want to dig deep in this event:

#1 SIGNIFICANT FORM, the first Chad Brown charge, had dead aim as the 4/5 favorite on La Signare (Fr) in the Wonder Again (G3), but she was repelled in the lane as her rival had the benefit of carving out some ridiculously slow fractions in her wire-to-wire win. This gal can easily overturn that form while making the second start of her form cycle—but will it be good enough in her first try going 10-panels? Perhaps with a cushy inside journey, she can make amends after losing as the chalk last time.

#2 CHIPOLATA (FR) has done decent work in her native France, cashing a bunch of checks in listed stakes events (against both girls and boys), but do note that her only two career wins have come sprinting on the All-Weather at Marseille-PV. Her two recent Longchamp races, going long on turf, weren’t bad, but it looks like she’ll need a step forward today while adding Lasix in her first Stateside start for the Clement barn. Maybe we should watch one?

#3 PAVED has traded decisions with her fellow SoCal compatriot #9 Fatale Bere (Fr) in their last two starts, so we’ll see how both of those gals handle the stiffer competition of the East Coast. She’s never been beyond 9-furlongs, but the way she’s finished her good races suggests that distance shouldn’t be an issue, especially with Stevens doing the steering—and you have to love the fact that she beat the boys on synth three back—but she’ll need to show she can compete with the Euros and the tough New Yorkers today.

#4 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (IRE) is an honest European invader whose only poor race was the result of an eventful journey in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). Before that, she had won the one-turn mile Natalma (G1) at Woodbine, showing that her solid Euro form transfers just fine to the colonies. She enters this race off a near-miss in a French Group 1, so seemingly she fits very well against these. Class won’t be a question but distance might be, since she’s never been beyond a mile. Still, she should be a good price, and it’s encouraging to see Castellano take the call.

#5 TOINETTE is that rarest of rare birds: a SoCal-based turf runner who actually stepped up when shipping East, clearing her N1X condition at Keeneland before winning the Edgewood (G3) at Churchill on Oaks Day. Granted, she’s trained by Drysdale, who is no stranger to turf success, no matter where he’s saddling a horse, so if he likes her chances here at Belmont, then who are we to argue? Her tractable and versatile running style is a plus, and the way she finished the Edgewood (G3) suggests that today’s distance shouldn’t be an issue.

#6 ATHENA (IRE) invades from the United Kingdom, where she’s danced a lot of dances, including two recent third-place finishes in Group Ones at the Curragh. Unlike some of the others in here, she’s shown that today’s distance is perfectly fine for her, since she’s a solid 4-for-6 in-the-money going 10-panels. The top trainer/jock combo of O’Brien and Moore means she’s a legitimate threat, though don’t expect a fair price—and who knows if she’ll bring her A-game considering she just raced six days ago in Ireland. She’s obvious but there are questions here.

#7 LA SIGNARE (FR) was the beneficiary of a glacial pace last time when Rosario was able to walk the dog in the Wonder Again (G3) before digging in to win gamely, fending off a challenge by #1 Significant Form. Before that, she showed that she could come from off the pace when she rallied nicely to just miss against Toinette in an entry-level allowance at Keeneland. Unfortunately, she’ll have to outfinish that rival today, but her versatility will at least give Rosario options in a race that doesn’t look to have too much pace on paper. Trainer Brian Lynch has done a fine job with her, and she’s not without a shot today.

#8 THEWAYIAM (FR) has never raced beyond 8.5-furlongs, so she’ll have to prove she can get the added ground today—but if you look at her come-home times going those shorter distances, they are certainly strong enough for her to transfer her sharp shorter form to today’s longer distance. There’s always the possibility that she’ll lose some of her solid late punch while going today’s 10-furlongs, but there’s also the chance that this multiple graded-stakes winner gets overlooked in here because of that, making her a solid contender at a square price.

#9 FATALE BERE (FR) has done nice work in SoCal when things weren’t conspiring against her. Toss her last when the saddle slipped (when Paved turn the tables on her), and even her two other bad races can be explained away by tough posts and wide journeys. In other words, if she gets a clean run, she’s a pretty competitive gal who has shown a strong stretch run. That said, we’ll see how she handles the ship East against tougher competition, but it’s nice to see Desormeaux along for the ride.

#10 MIGHTY SCARLETT, the second Brown runner, makes the third start of her form cycle after putting in a late bid to finish third in the Wonder Again (G3). She was off the pace in a race that had absolutely no pace to close into, so the fact that she made up several lengths with a strong third quarter move means she can be very dangerous today getting some added ground—especially since she looked really good when breaking her maiden going 1-3/16 miles at Keeneland two back. She looks poised for a big run today at a good price.

SELECTIONS 

1. #10 MIGHTY SCARLETT – Should be exploding late.
2. #8 THEWAYIAM (FR) – Fires every time.
3. #5 TOINETTE – Daughter of Scat Daddy is undefeated since trying turf.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#4 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (IRE) – Enters this off a sharp Group 1 fourth-place finish and has proven Grade 1 U.S. form.

 WAGERING STRATEGY

This feels like a good exotics race, since there are so many contenders. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if any one of these gals won—but if #10 MIGHTY SCARLETT is 5/1 of higher, she definitely merits a win bet, since she’ll be the key horse in here.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$6 Exactas: #10 MIGHTY SCARLETT with #4 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (IRE), #5 TOINETTE, and #8 THEWAYIAM (FR) ($18).

$6 Exactas: #4 CAPLA TEMPTRESS (IRE), #5 TOINETTE, and #8 THEWAYIAM (FR) with #10 MIGHTY SCARLETT ($18).

$14 Win: #10 MIGHTY SCARLETT ($20)

 

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