THE 2018 BELMONT STAKES

Will Justify become the 13th Triple Crown winner? The betting public will make him the heavy favorite to do just that, while many handicappers will take a contrarian view. Much has been written since the Preakness Stakes (G1) regarding Justify’s supposedly declining form:

– His Beyer Speed Figures have declined since his career debut.

– He barely held on to win the Preakness (G1) against longshots Bravazo and Tenfold.

– His compressed five-start career over the last three-and-a-half months has left him with little left in the tank for the Belmont (G1).

But I have a different point of view than the critics and skeptics.

In spite of the negative press, a simple fact remains: None of the horses that will face Justify have been able to beat him so far, and none are expected to improve enough to match him in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

In the Kentucky Derby (G1), Justify controlled a blazing early pace over a sloppy track, and used his energy early to put the field away. He essentially coasted home a winner that held off his nearest competition in the final furlong.

In the Preakness (G1), Justify and Good Magic engaged in what became essentially a match race, dueling through the slop, head and head for over a mile. These are the two best three-year-olds in North America and Justify’s rider, Mike Smith, saw Good Magic as the primary threat and essentially gambled that if he could duel that foe into defeat, he was unlikely to get caught by anyone closing late. Bravazo and Tenfold were factors late only because the top two fighters had held nothing back in their early battle. Mike Smith knew he had Good Magic beaten in the late stages, so in the final strides, he was not trying to do nothing more than make sure he held on for the win.

As for the declining speed figures, figure analysis is a lot more subjective when it comes to unusual situations like very sloppy tracks and early speed duels. Both situations apply to both the Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1). Both tracks were deluged with water all afternoon and even during each race. Therefore, it is difficult to determine how ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ the racing surfaces were. Both races involved Justify vanquishing all others up front and then holding off closers picking up the pieces. Again, this is not the usual way a good horse earns its top speed figures.

Should the Belmont Stakes (G1) be run on a fast track with a sensible early pace, it would not be a surprise to see Justify equal or exceed his Santa Anita Derby (G1) figure. That is, if Justify can run a marathon with the same brilliance as his runs at the classic distances. Dirt races beyond a-mile-and-a-quarter are rare in North America. The Belmont Stakes (G1) remains the most visible dirt marathon in America, and it offers peculiar challenges to handicappers.

A field of 10 starters is expected to enter the starting gate for the 2018 Belmont Stakes (G1), a far cry from the 20-horse Kentucky Derby (G1) field. Justify can lead this race from the start. Whether or not any other horses are asked to pressure him early is the key to how the Belmont Stakes (G1) unfolds. None of the other contestants have shown early speed in their previous starts, but some riders are nevertheless likely to send their horses on a mission to try and soften up Justify early. This was a big part of the demise of Smarty Jones’s Triple Crown bid in 2004. Although he was the fastest early runner, other horses were sent on suicidal bids to force Smarty Jones to go too fast in the early stages. The early runners all finished far back, but their sacrifice softened up the favorite enough for Birdstone to get up in the shadow of the wire.

If Justify is allowed to set a realistic pace, he has a huge advantage. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he was allowed to set an unpressured pace and after running an opening three-quarter mile split in 1:12:3, he powered home in a dominating performance.

Pace pressing horses Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Tenfold can all lay close to Justify, but if they pressure him early, they are likely to fade just like Good Magic did in the Preakness Stakes (G1).

The public tends to favor closers in marathons, even though closers do not gain any advantage by waiting too long to go after the leaders. Bravazo, Blended Citizen, Hofburg and Free Drop Billy will be played by many looking for a horse to rally from far back. The closers only enter the picture if Justify is pressured throughout the first mile of the race.

Justify’s early speed is once again his best weapon in his bid to make racing history. He should be able to find a comfortable position on or just off of the lead, and take over entering the far turn. He has already proven himself in two classics, and may not face competition that is any faster than he is over a route of ground. Yes, his five-race career may already have taken a toll on him since his career debut on February 18th, but the expectation is that he will prevail once again before taking a well deserved rest as the 13th Triple Crown winner.

 

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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