$1,200,000 Metropolitan Mile Handicap (G1) – Belmont Park

Race 9 (Saturday, June 9, 2018: 4:45 p.m./ET; 1:45 p.m./PT)

The $1.2 million Metropolitan Mike Handicap (G1) features a strong cast of some of the best older milers in North America and is one of a half dozen exhilarating Grade I races on the stakes filled Belmont Day card. Let’s begin our analysis of the 2018 Metropolitan Handicap (G1) with the morning line favorite, who drew the inside post position:

#1 MIND YOUR BISCUITS looks to win his first start back in the United States since a last to first score in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) in March. It was an impressive effort, but even more so when you consider the fact that he was the only winner that evening to come from off the pace over an extremely speed biased main track. His last run at a one-turn mile was an extremely solid effort, finishing second in the Cigar Mile (G1) to run-away winner SHARP AZTECA.  If the ‘Dubai Bounce’ doesn’t pop up with this guy, he’s got a solid chance to be posing for pictures.

#2 BOLT D’ORO is a three-year-old facing older horses for the first time. The Mick Ruis trainee finished poorly in the Kentucky Derby (G1) over a wet track last time out and ran second to Triple Crown contender JUSTIFY in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) two starts back. Has always possessed a ton of raw talent, but this isn’t an easy group of older horses to be competing against.

#3 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL was last seen earning one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of his career (103) in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) over a sloppy track. He is three-for-three over wet tracks and the weather forecast calls for rain, which only adds to his appeal. Has never run eight furlongs before and one has to question whether the extra furlong might be a bit too far. Jose Ortiz rode last him time and opts to hop aboard #5 GOOD SAMARITAN. Javier Castellano picks up the mount.

#4 MCCRAKEN looks to win his first Grade I and makes his second start off a six-month break after winning an allowance race at Churchill Downs. There is a big chance he takes a step forward off that last appearance considering he surely was not fully cranked for that effort. His best run last year was when he lost, finishing second by a nose in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park.

#5 GOOD SAMARITAN has hit the board in the majority of his races but is a relatively inconsistent horse that does not always show up with his ‘A’ game. His best run makes him a major player while his ‘B’ efforts makes him vulnerable. Son of HARLAN’S HOLIDAY comes off a third place finish in the Alysheba (G2) against easier company. His most recent trip to the winner’s circle came two starts back in the New Orleans Handicap (G2) and his biggest triumph to date came in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga last year. Oozes raw talent but has to put it all together.

#6 ONE LINER stalked the pace before running second, beaten four-and-a-half lengths by IRISH WAR CRY in the Pimlico Special (G3) three weeks ago. Before that effort, he defeated allowance company at 3/5 at Keeneland. This is the toughest task of his career and all signs indicate he will need to pick up the pace to be competitive for an in-the-money effort.

#7 DISCREET LOVER ran a distant fourth in the Pimlico Special (G3), adding to this zero-for-seven record over wet surfaces. Passing.

#8 RANSOM THE MOON ships in from Southern California for trainer Phil D’Amato. Makes his second start off a five-and-a-half month layoff, but hasn’t won since July last year. Need to see more.

#9 WARRIOR’S CLUB was a game winner of the Commonwealth Stakes (G3) going seven furlongs two months ago and most recently ran a very good second in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) on Derby Day, which was run on a sloppy surface. Is peaking right now for The Churchill Downs Racing Club, a large syndicated group of owners who campaign this colt along with trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

#10 BEE JERSEY makes his Grade I debut in this spot for trainer Steve Asmussen. Clearly this guy is going better than ever (three consecutive victories) but the real question is whether he has the class to defeat the best in here. That said, from a pace scenario standpoint, he may have an edge as he likes to go to the front and there isn’t much other early speed.

#11 AWESOME SLEW finished third in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (G1) last Fall and has run twice this year, finishing second in the Carter (G1) before coming back to run a close third over a sloppy track in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G2). Appears to fit in with this group.

SELECTIONS 

1. #10 BEE JERSEY – Lone speed.
2. #5 GOOD SAMARITAN – Dangerous with his best race.
3. #1 MIND YOUR BISCUITS – Will do his best running late.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #3 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL – Likes the wet-going. 

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 BUDGET)

$50 Win: #10 BEE JERSEY

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