$1,000,000 Manhattan (G1) – Belmont Park

Race 10 (Saturday, June 9, 2018: 5:40 p.m./ET; 2:40 p.m./PT)

Annually the appetizer before the Belmont Stakes (G1) entree, the $1,000,000 Manhattan (G1) has attracted a large field of 13 older turf horses set to clash at the mile-and-a-quarter distance. Let’s dive into this race, analyze this quality-filled group, and hopefully win some money:  

#1 ROBERT BRUCE (CHI) is an undefeated seven-for-seven and a four time Group 1 winner in Chile. His first U.S. race for (new) trainer Chad Brown resulted in a victory in the Fort Marcy (G3), where he finished three-quarters of a length ahead of #13 SPRING QUALITY that afternoon. The best in here are even tougher than what he saw last time, so this will be the acid test, but an undefeated horse coming from a top barn should be taken seriously.

#2 ONE GO ALL GO lost by a length to #3 HI HAPPY in the Man O’War (G1) and was defeated by the aforementioned rival three starts ago as well. He’ll need to find a way to turn the tables on that rival. The positive is that #3 HI HAPPY is considered to be one of the main dangers in this race, meaning #2 ONE GO ALL GO can compete with the best of ‘em signed on in here. Contender.

#3 HI HAPPY (ARG) has won a pair of graded stakes for trainer Todd Pletcher since joining his barn over the winter. The son of PURE PRIZE was victorious in the Man O’War (G1) over this course last month, defeating #2 ONE GO ALL GO and #8 SADLER’s JOY. Major contender.

#4 ALEXIOS KOMNENOS (IRE) makes his first start in the United States for European based trainer James Stack while also racing on Lasix for the first time. The Irish-bred colt comes off a 10-length loss to European star RHODODENDRON in a Group 1 race, but that was also his first start in over eight months. Before the lengthy break, this colt won a Group 3 at one mile, his biggest win to date. Florent Geroux rides.

#5 CATCHO EN DIE (ARG) finished fifth in the Man O’War (G1) at odds of 63/1. He was never a threat to hit the board in that race and will go off at a big price in this spot as well.

#6 HELLO DON JULIO makes his first start for 2018. The son of AFLEET ALEX was last seen running third in the Knickerbocker (G2) back in October and has done his best work against allowance company. Has failed to win a stakes race in his career. Longshot.

#7 FASHION BUSINESS (GB) easily defeated first level allowance company at Santa Anita last month and takes a sharp step up in class to this Grade I level. Son of FRANKEL makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Phil D’Amato, but gelding has never won a stake before. Another one that will go off at a big price.

#8 SADLER’S JOY has lost to #3 HI HAPPY in his last two races. Five-year-old son of KITTEN’S JOY usually sits far off the pace and makes one run. His last win came three starts back in the Mac Diarmida (G2) at Gulfstream. Would use underneath in exotics, if anywhere.

#9 CHANNEL MAKER was well beaten in the Turf Classic (G1) on ‘Derby Day, finishing six lengths behind YOSHIDA and about five lengths behind the likely favorite in this race, #10 BEACH PATROL. The turf was yielding that afternoon so maybe he did not care for the condition of the course, but unfortunately for this guy the turf is projected to be wet once again. Has yet to win a graded stake in his 16 race career. Siding with others.

#10 BEACH PATROL is a consistent horse that has finished in the top three spots in his last three races. Son of LEMON DROP KID made his first start of 2018 last month in the Turf Classic (G1) and ran second to YOSHIDA, who is bound for Royal Ascot. His biggest efforts last year were a second place finish in the Breeders Cup Turf (G1) and a victory in the Arlington Million (G1). Classy dude is the one to beat.

#11 MANITOULIN makes his second start off a five-and-a-half month vacation. His 2018 debut resulted in a three-length loss to #1 ROBERT BRUCE and #13 SPRING QUALITY in the Fort Marcy (G3). Three of his five career first place finishes have come over this turf course and big money rider Mike Smith takes the reins, who was aboard when this colt won the Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) at Del Mar in November.

#12 MULTIPLIER won a second level allowance race going a mile-and-an-eighth by a nose at Santa Anita and makes his graded stakes debut on turf for trainer Peter Miller. He’ll need to pick up his feet to even be competitive against some of these graded stakes monsters in here. 

#13 SPRING QUALITY won the Red Smith Handicap (G3) two starts ago at a mile-and-three-eighths, took five-and-a-half months off and ran second in the Fort Marcy (G3) to kick off his 2018 campaign. Second start off the break and stretching back out to a longer distance, he should be in peak condition for trainer Graham Motion. However, this is the toughest field he’s ever faced and the post position is far from ideal.

SELECTIONS 

1. #3 HI HAPPY – Hasn’t done anything wrong since joining Team Pletcher.
2. #10 BEACH PATROL – Always shows up with a big effort.
3. #8 SADLER’S JOY – Will be rolling late.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #11 MANITOULIN – Grade 2 winner merits respect. 

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top two picks in an exacta. 

BANKROLL PLAY

$25 Exacta Box: #3 HI HAPPY and #10 BEACH PATROL

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