Race 3 (Saturday, June 9, 2018: 12:47 p.m./ET; 9:47 a.m./PT)
Named after Ogden Phipps, one of the great breeders, owners and legends of the North American thoroughbred racing industry, this year’s ‘Phipps field features a field of eight high quality fillies and mares contesting eight-and-one-half panels around one turn. Let’s begin our handicapping analysis with the inside post position:
#1 UNBRIDLED MO recently defeated next out Grade I winner UNIQUE BELLA over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. The good news is the weather forecast calls for rain and this gal is two-for-two over the wet going. She is seven-for-ten lifetime and top trainer Todd Pletcher conditions. Plenty of things to like here.
#2 IVY BELL is the second Todd Pletcher entrant in the race. Five-year-old mare comes into this race fresh off a second place finish to #5 AMERICAN GAL in the Humana Distaff (G1). She’ll need to make up some ground on #5 AMERICAN GAL while racing farther than seven furlongs for the very first time. Not going to be an easy task.
#3 HIGHWAY STAR only lost by a length to #4 PACIFIC WIND two starts ago in the Ruffian (G2) and most recently ran second again in the Critical Eye Stakes for New York-breds as the even money favorite. In against open stakes company again here. A minor award may be her ceiling.
#4 PACIFIC WIND moved to trainer Chad Brown’s barn in the winter and has thrived since. In two starts for Team Brown, the daughter of CURLIN won an allowance race by a whopping eight lengths and came back to defeat #3 HIGHWAY STAR in the Ruffian (G2). This is the toughest group she has ever had to face, but she is three-for-four on dirt.
#5 AMERICAN GAL also makes her third start off a layoff. Her most recent effort was a beauty, sitting close to the pace before pulling clear to win by two lengths in the Humana Distaff (G1). Keep in mind this filly is versatile, as she possesses natural front-running speed but does not necessarily need the lead. Also note that she holds a victory over this track, having won the Victory Ride (G3) by almost five lengths last July. Major player.
#6 ABEL TASMAN made her first start in seven months last time out and got an undesirable trip. She broke poorly, had to check heading into the first turn, and was forced to try to close into a slow pace. There is reason to believe she will take a major step forward with a better trip and a race under her belt this year. In 2017, she finished second in the Breeders Cup Distaff (G1) and also won a trio of Grade I races, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1), which was run over a sloppy track. The one to beat with her best.
#7 UNCHAINED MELODY makes her second start off an eight-and-a-half month layoff for trainer Brian Lynch, who strikes at a 14% win clip with his trainees second start off the shelf. However, her first race back was a disappointment, running last in the field of five in the Ruffian (G2). Blinkers off today for the winner of the Mother Goose (G2) last year.
#8 BERNED won the Serena Song Stakes over a sloppy track at Monmouth Park last month, but the majority of her graded stakes tries have resulted in off the board finishes. Appears outclassed.
SELECTIONS
- #1 UNBRIDLED MO – Loves the mud and loves to win.
- #6 ABEL TASMAN – One to fear most.
- #4 PACIFIC WIND – In peak form.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#5 AMERICAN GAL – Grade 1 winner merits respect.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Exacta Box: #1 UNBRIDLED MO and #4 PACIFIC WIND and #6 ABEL TASMAN ($30).
$20 Win: #1 UNBRIDLED MO
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