Thursday, May 3, 2018

There is No ‘Next Year’ by Todd Schrupp

This year will mark the 144th Renewals of both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. While the longevity of these Two races is impressive, what truly sets them apart is their ‘Once-in-a-Lifetime’ opportunity.

In just about every Sport there truly is, ‘Always next year’. If you are a devoted fan to a particular team, a Championship moment could happen in a year or 20 years; there’s always a chance. Even some of Horse Racing’s Biggest races, the Breeders’ Cup Classic or Dubai World Cup, a Horse could return to Win after losing the year prior. Such a scenario is not possible with the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby.

The urgency combined with the challenge are Two key components in making the Kentucky Derby ‘The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports’. This year’s Kentucky Derby has a measure of quality by the main contenders that I can’t remember seeing in my 30 years of following the sport. Consider these Resumes: Audible – A Four race win streak including taking the Two biggest races for 3-yr-olds in Florida by a combined total of 8 1/2 lengths. Justify – The West Coast’s best, winner of all 3 starts in his career with devastating ease by a combined margin of 19 lengths. Magnum Moon – Arkansas Derby winner, he has won all four of his career starts at distances ranging from 6 furlongs to a mile-and-an-eighth, at three different racetracks. Mendelssohn – Took his most recent start, the United Arab Emirates Derby, by a remarkable 18 1/2 lengths. These are just Four contenders in this Year’s Race !

Incredibly, as talented as the aforementioned horses are, this year’s Kentucky Derby is so deep and talented the Winner may not even come from that quartet. Whether you are witnessing the Kentucky Derby for the first time or are an experienced observer, this year’s renewal should not be missed. Everything you could want in the lead-up to any race is here in this year’s Kentucky Derby and it may go down in the lore of Thoroughbred Racing. To win this year’s Kentucky Derby you have to be a truly great Horse, and like every year, there is no ‘Next Year’.

Here are my thoughts on some of the horses people will be talking about in both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby, along with my Top Four Selections in order of Preference:

Kentucky Oaks – Friday, May 4th Race 11 Churchill Downs

Overview: Much was made of the outside Post Position draw for the Morning Line favorite Monomoy Girl, she drew Post Position 14 in a field of 14. I’m not as concerned as most, given the distance she’ll have ample opportunity to work out her trip. My biggest concern with the favorite is her seeing out the 1 1/8 miles. Yes, she finished with plenty left in her previous race the Ashland at Keeneland, but this field is far superior in depth and she will have to work hard on or near the lead. I believe this leaves her vulnerable late and she gets beat.

My Top Four Picks in order of Preference:

  1. #10 Midnight Bisou
  2. #11 My Miss Lilly
  3. #14 Monomoy Girl
  4. #5 Wonder Gadot

Kentucky Derby – Saturday, May 5th Race 12 Churchill Downs

Overview: Something has to give with the Big Four: Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon & Mendelssohn. Consider the historical trends they will break individually if they win the Kentucky Derby; Audible would be just the second New York Bred to win, Justify & Magnum Moon would be the first horses to win who didn’t have a start as a Two-Year-Old since Apollo in 1882, and Mendelssohn would be the first horse to win after having last raced in Dubai. As talented as the ‘Big Four’ are, History is against them, so am I.

My Top Four Picks in order of Preference:

  1. #9 Hofburg
  2. #7 Justify
  3. #6 Good Magic
  4. #18 Vino Rosso

 

 

 

 

 

 

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