PLAYING THE KENTUCKY DERBY

 

With both the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) shaping up to be great betting races, do not miss terrific undercard opportunities on Friday (13 races) and Saturday (14 races) while focusing on the main events.

But tradition mandates we analyze the Derby, by focusing on a few simple handicapping criteria:

• Are they bred to handle 10 furlongs?
• Are they fast enough and in good enough recent form to win or at least closely contend in top graded stakes route races immediately prior to the Derby?
• Are they precocious enough to have been a stakes-quality talent, if not winner, in route races at age two?

With few exceptions over the last 30+ years, Kentucky Derby (G1) winners have usually met all three criteria above. Since no Derby entrant has ever tried a mile-and-a-quarter, handicappers must do a comparison of speed figures at shorter distances of ground versus indications in the bloodlines that the extra distance is manageable. My personal Derby handicapping boils down to narrowing the 20 horse field to the contenders that have run at or above Derby par in two-turn Grade 1 or Grade 2 races (102 Brisnet pace/102 Brisnet speed), and are bred to go a distance of ground beyond a mile-and-an-eighth.

Unfortunately this year has brought a large group of competitors that fit those criteria very well. The horses entering the Derby this year off a major prep win include:

Justify (105/114)

Audible (105/107)

Vino Rosso (102/102)

Magnum Moon (98/100)

Noble Indy (109/100) 

Good Magic (99/98)

Mendelssohn (106 Beyer Speed Figure in Dubai)

All of these colts have breeding that suggests they can run a mile-and-a-quarter, and all of them have posted speed figures in the neighborhood of Derby par.

Additionally, there are another group of horses that hit the board in their most recent Derby preps that are also a good fit based on the historic Derby winner profile:

Bolt D’ Oro (102/110)

Hofburg (102/104)

Lone Sailor (101/100)

Enticed (104/99)

Free Drop Billy (93/ 99)

My Boy Jack (88/99)

Flameaway (100/97)

Solomini (97/96)

So in my book, the 2018 Derby shapes up to be a field of 20 horses with seven key contenders, eight more that can be considered legitimate longshots and only five that really appear to be outsiders. The good news is that the betting public will scatter their opinions around enough to guarantee big payouts no matter how the race plays out. The bad news is you can’t form a betting strategy around 15 horses without making one or two runners your key.

For me, the easy horse to key is Justify. He has just plain run faster in each of his starts than most runners have ever managed. The further he races, the higher his pace and speed figures go up, and his breeding gives me every reason to think he will handle the classic Derby distance.

Audible is also another strong contender that is easy to make a key horse as his ability to close from off the pace should be an asset in this edition of the Derby. A similar case can be made for Good Magic, Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon, but none of them are in the same speed figure tier as Justify and Audible.

The difficult decisions are with Bolt D’ Oro and Mendelssohn. While Bolt D’ Oro may be the second fastest horse entering the Derby behind Justify and no one would be surprised if he finished in the top four, I think he is suspect on the win end because he has not crossed the finish line first since September of his two-year-old season.

Mendelssohn is also tricky because his huge win was earned in Dubai on an ultra-speed biased track, where he took the lead immediately, set a comfortable pace, and never looked back. I would normally throw him out except for two things: 1) He already shipped to North America last year and won a Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup race and 2) His sister Beholder was a dirt monster.

My primary tickets will not include Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, Hofburg, and Lone Sailor, Enticed, Free Drop Billy, My Boy Jack, Flameaway or Solomini. Having wrote that, it would not be a shock to me for any one of these runners to finish in the money. But exotic ticket sizes can get out of control in the Derby. I am much more confident in Justify and Audible as top win selections, with Good Magic, Bolt D’ Oro and Mendelssohn as my underneath contenders. It is not often that covering five contenders in a race leaves a handicapper feeling vulnerable, but this year’s Derby is loaded with talent.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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