Race 6 (Saturday, May 5, 2018: 1:13 p.m./ET; 10:13 a.m./PT)
7 furlongs on the main track (fillies and mares, four-years-old and upward)
With the Breeders’ Cup being hosted at Churchill Downs this year, it’s likely a few of these talented runners are being pointed to the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) in early November. Let’s analyze the field:
#1 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM out finished #2 SALTY, #5 LEWIS BAY and #8 AMERICAN GAL in the Madison (G1) at this distance at Keeneland last month. It was a hard fought victory by a filly that loves to win (10-for-15 lifetime with three second place finishes). This gal is also a ‘horse for course’ as she is undefeated in six tries over this surface. She does not draw a desirable post position but has the class and heart to win this. Major contender.
#2 SALTY makes her third start off a four-and-a-half month layoff. After winning an allowance race in her first start off the break, she ran fifth in The Madison (G1), making up a good amount of ground down the lane before losing by just three-quarters of a length to #1 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM. She likes to sit off the pace and make one run.
#3 IVY BELL made her first start for trainer Todd Pletcher in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream going this seven furlong distance. She won the race despite encountering traffic trouble down the lane and was clearly best. With that in mind, the field she faces here is much tougher than what she saw in South Florida. We’ll see how good she is against some of the best filly and mare sprinters in the country.
#4 SKYE DIAMONDS has run third in her last two graded stakes starts, finishing behind top Southern California sprinter SELCOURT in each race. Her most recent win to date came last summer in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) at Del Mar. She’ll need to run a career best to win this.
#5 LEWIS BAY is as consistent as they come. The daughter of BERNARDINI has only finished off the board once in 13 lifetime starts, with over $935K in earnings. In her most recent start, she finished a head behind #1 FINLEY’SLUCKYCARM in the Madison (G1). Chad Brown once again teams up with Irad Ortiz Jr and they win at a 28% clip together. A must-use on tickets.
#6 MINER’S CAT finished second in an allowance race at Keeneland in her most recent afternoon appearance. Her last win (six starts ago) came at this seven furlong distance, but it is worth noting she was facing relatively easy competition that day. Will be a longshot.
#7 TORRENT has never won a stakes race, never mind a graded stake, and surely this is the toughest assignment she has been asked to take on in her fifteen race career. Improvement is needed.
#8 AMERICAN GAL makes her second start off an eight-month vacation for trainer Simon Callaghan, who is four-for-eight (50%) with his trainees making the second start in their form cycle. She won the Test (G1) at Saratoga last summer, defeating #5 LEWIS BAY in the process, and also scored an easy win in the Victory Ride (G3) at Belmont by a large margin. She draws a good post and with a race under her belt, she may be able to take a step forward. Dangerous.
SELECTIONS
- #8 AMERICAN GAL – Expecting a big performance.
- #1 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM – Win machine draws poor, but loves this track.
- #5 LEWIS BAY – Runs her heart out every time.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #2 SALTY – Last was better than looked.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top three picks in exactas and make a straight win bet on my top choice.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$5 Exacta Box: #1 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM and #5 LEWIS BAY and #8 AMERICAN GAL ($30).
$20 Win: #8 AMERICAN GAL
(Bankroll at -$466.90 after 2018 Week #6 Based on $50 Wagers; -$126.90 last Newsletter).
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