Race 11 (Saturday, May 5, 2018: 5:25 p.m./ET; 2:25 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on turf (four-years-old and upward)
The Turf Classic (G1) is the annual appetizer before the Kentucky Derby (G1) and this year, a field of 10 turf routers are slated to travel the distance of nine panels, lead by Breeders Cup Turf (G1) runner up #10 BEACH PATROL and European invader and Arlington Million (G1) participant #1 DEAUVILLE. Let’s take an in-depth look at the first leg of the Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby daily double wager, beginning with the inside post position:
#1 DEAUVILLE (IRE) ran third behind #10 BEACH PATROL in the Arlington Million (G1) last summer. The Aidan O’Brien trainee recently made his first start off a four month layoff in the Earl of Sefton Stakes (G3) going this distance, when he finished second as the 7/5 favorite. He should take a step forward from that last run and anything O’Brien sends to North America is worth considering.
#2 SHINING COPPER finished second as the favorite in the Barbados Gold Cup, snapping a three race-win streak. His biggest win to gate came in his last start at Gulfstream Park, when he won the Fort Lauderdale (G2) by a head in wire-to-wire fashion. Expect this guy to go to the front and go as fast as he can for as long as he can.
#3 KURILOV (CHI) is a Group 1 winner in Chile making his fourth start for the Chad Brown barn. This son of LOOKIN AT LUCKY most recently finished second to next out Grade I winner HEART TO HEART in the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) on February 30. Brown wins at a 30% clip when freshening up runners between 61-180 days. Contender.
#4 CAMELOT KITTEN likes to sit off the pace and make one run. The good news for him is it looks like stablemate #2 SHINING COPPER will apply some pace for this guy to chase. He comes off a win in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park over their synthetic surface, but his most significant victory to date came last fall in the 2016 Hill Prince (G3) at Belmont Park. Big money rider Mike Smith hops aboard.
#5 CHANNEL MAKER made up a lot of ground down the lane but ended up hitting the wire a length short in his most recent start, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. This gelding has failed to win a graded stakes race in his career and is 0-for-4 when traveling this mile-and-an-eighth distance. Siding with a few others.
#6 ARKLOW most recently ran second to #7 SYNCHRONY in the Muniz Memorial Handicap (G2) on Louisiana Derby Day at the Fair Grounds. We know he likes this turf course as he won the American Turf (G2) against three-year-olds last year. That said, he’ll need to turn the tables on the aforementioned rival (who is 5/1 in this race) while attempting to beat some other very talented turf routers signed on. Won’t be an easy task.
#7 SYNCHRONY seeks his third consecutive win. Son of TAPIT won the Fair Grounds Handicap (G3) and Muniz Memorial (G2) and now makes his Grade I debut in this spot. Interesting.
#8 EDITORE (BRZ) was outfinished by FLAMBOYANT in the San Francisco Mile (G3) at Golden Gate Fields after finishing behind ITSINTHEPOST in two straight graded stakes races at Santa Anita Park. His last win came on Tapeta at Golden Gate in the Berkeley Handicap (G3) over the fall. Is up against it.
#9 YOSHIDA (JPN) hasn’t been seen since October, when the Bill Mott trainee won the Hill Prince (G3). Whether he has the class to win this is a question mark and there are others in here who are more fit considering this guy comes off a lengthy vacation. Siding with others.
#10 BEACH PATROL was last seen running a game second in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) to TALISMANIC and finished ahead of defending champion HIGHLAND REEL, who came back to win a Group 1 in Hong Kong. This nine furlong distance may be a little bit short for him, but he has the class to win and has been competitive at this distance before. The one to beat.
SELECTIONS
- #3 KURILOV – The ‘other’ Chad Brown.
- #10 BEACH PATROL – Classiest one of them all.
- #1 DEAUVILLE – Comes from the yard of world-renowned trainer Aidan O’Brien.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 SYNCHRONY – Never worse than second on turf.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll box my top four selections in exactas and trifectas and when all is said and done, I’ll make a straight win bet on my top pick with the remaining two George Washington’s I have in my allocated bankroll.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$2 Exacta Box: #1 DEAUVILLE and #3 KURILOV and #7 SYNCHRONY and #10 BEACH PATROL ($24).
$1 Trifecta Box: #1 DEAUVILLE and #3 KURILOV and #7 SYNCHRONY and #10 BEACH PATROL ($24).
$2 Win: #3 KURILOV
(Bankroll at -$466.90 after 2018 Week #6 Based on $50 Wagers; -$126.90 last Newsletter).
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