$250,000 Dixie (G2) – Pimlico

Race 7 (Saturday, May 19, 2018: 2:07 p.m./ET; 11:07 a.m./PT)

One mile and a sixteenth on the turf (three-year-olds and upward)

The weather forecast calls for rain throughout the week, meaning there is a possibility this race may be moved to the dirt, but I’m anticipating that management keeps this race on turf since the Pimlico meet is so short in duration. Let’s get to handicapping this puzzle:

#1 FIRE AWAY comes into this race fresh off a win in the Danger’s Hour Stakes at Aqueduct going a mile on turf. Just two starts ago, he finished four-and-a-half lengths behind Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner WORLD APPROVAL, who is also slated to run in this spot. Does have a win over ‘soft’ turf, but may be a notch below the best signed on.

#2 UNBRIDLED JUAN is a first time gelding making his first afternoon appearance since September and has never finished off the board in four starts over a wet track. If he is fit enough off the eight-month break and the race gets moved to dirt, consider him a major player.

#3 O DIONYSUS is another first time gelding. His last win came on turf, when the son of BODEMEISTER defeated five other runners in an allowance race nine days ago. His speed figures are subpar compared to the main contenders and whether he has the class to win this is a big question mark.

#4 FROSTMOURNE only lost by two-and-a-half lengths in the Makers 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland last time out. He may scratch if the race is moved to the dirt but if the race stays on the lawn, he should be marked down as one of the horses to beat.

#5 DOCTOR MOUNTY finished second on the turf in the Henry Clark Stakes over the Laurel Park lawn on April 21. The second entrant for trainer Shug McCaughey, he has an upset possibility if the race is moved to dirt considering his pedigree indicates he should adore a sloppy surface.

#6 JUST HOWARD won the Commonwealth Derby (G3) and a pair of minor stakes’ on turf at Laurel Park last year. He makes his first start in almost six months for trainer Graham Motion.

#7 WORLD APPROVAL has won multiple Grade 1’s on turf, including last November when he defeated some of the best milers in the world in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). His most recent start, a below average fifth place finish in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1), is a possible cause for concern for those backing the winner of this race last year.

#8 DIVISIDERO is another horse with plenty of backclass. This six-year-old is a multiple Grade I winner who has earned over $1.1 million, all of it on turf. A top contender, even with the barn change and seven-and-a-half month layoff, if the race remains on turf.

SELECTIONS

1. #5 FROSTMOURNE – Solid effort against Grade I company last time.
2. #7 WORLD APPROVAL – The one to beat.
3. #6 JUST HOWARD – Hometown horse resides in good barn.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 DOCTOR MOUNTY – In Shug We Trust.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #5 FROSTMOURNE

 

(Bankroll at -$454.50 after 2018 Week #7 Based on $50 Wagers; +$12.40 last Newsletter).

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