$1,500,000 Preakness (G1) – Pimlico

 

Race 13 (Saturday, May 19, 2018: 6:48 p.m./ET; 3:48 p.m./PT)

Mile and three sixteenths on the main track (three-year-olds)

JUSTIFY gave the world chills with a decisive victory in the Kentucky Derby (G1) two weeks ago. This Saturday, the son of the late, great SCAT DADDY looks to win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown while seven other starters attempt to beat the 2018 Derby champ. Let’s discuss the field assembled and try to predict the outcome of the race:   

#1 QUIP makes his third start off a four-month break in this spot. After winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his first race off the layoff, he came back to run second, beaten four lengths, to MAGNUM MOON in the Arkansas Derby (G1), who came back to run very poorly in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Clearly this one has some talent but he is probably a notch or two below the likes of #7 JUSTIFY and #5 GOOD MAGIC. A possibility to hit the board, but a victory would be a surprise.

#2 LONE SAILOR never got involved in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and finished in midpack. He lost by a neck to NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby (G2) two starts ago and was unable to win an allowance race at the Fair Grounds three starts back. Much improvement is needed for him to be competitive here.

#3 SPORTING CHANCE crossed the wire third (and disqualified to fourth) while soundly defeated by #5 GOOD MAGIC, in the BlueGrass (G2) on April 7, then came back to run fourth in the Pat Day Mile (G3) on Kentucky Derby Day. Note his biggest career victory came as a two-year-old in the seven furlong Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga, so he has yet to win a big race going two turns.

#4 DIAMOND KING finished third in the Swale (G3) at Gulfstream, was given a month-and-a-half break and came back to win the mile-and-an-eighth Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. This Jason Servis trainee has four victories from six lifetime starts, but the competition he faces here is significantly tougher than what he’s been seeing.

#5 GOOD MAGIC stalked the pace in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and finished a gutsy second, holding off a late challenge from Florida Derby (G1) winner AUDIBLE for that second spot. He was beaten two-and-a-half lengths by #7 JUSTIFY so he’ll need to figure out a way to make up some ground on him, but the fact of the matter is this guy has never run a bad race in his life and is the most likely foe to defeat JUSTIFY if anybody does. Major player once again.

#6 TENFOLD is the most lightly raced contender with just three starts to his name. His most recent afternoon appearance resulted in a fifth place finish behind MAGNUM MOON and QUIP in the Arkansas Derby (G1) five weeks ago. Although he lacks seasoning over the other seven runners slated to compete here, the good news is he at least appears to have some room to grow but this is a tough spot, nonetheless.

#7 JUSTIFY is undefeated and pretty much untested in four lifetime starts. After going so fast early in the Kentucky Derby (G1), he was able to shake clear of his competition down the lane and splashed home first in the mud, while breaking the Apollo Curse and stamping himself as ‘the real deal.’ His competition will have to hope this guy regresses after that big effort two weeks ago, but every horse that Baffert has won with in the Kentucky Derby (G1) has gone on to win the Preakness (G1). The one to beat…obviously.

#8 BRAVAZO wheels back after a sixth place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). His best run to date came in the Risen Star (G2) on February 17, when the son of AWESOME AGAIN defeated eight other rivals at odds of 21/1. He would need to run a career best to have a shot at winning this race, but D. Wayne Lucas calls the shots with this guy and we know what he is capable of in Triple Crown races.

SELECTIONS 

1. 1. JUSTIFY – Have to beat The Champ to be The Champ.
2. GOOD MAGIC – Has never finished off the board.
3. QUIP – New face has talent.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- SPORTING CHANCE – Exotics candidate.  

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other selections in trifectas.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Trifecta: JUSTIFY over GOOD MAGIC over QUIP and SPORTING CHANCE ($20).

$15 Trifecta: JUSTIFY over QUIP and SPORTING CHANCE over GOOD MAGIC ($30).

(Bankroll at -$454.50 after 2018 Week #7 Based on $50 Wagers; +$12.40 last Newsletter).

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