$150,000 Gallorette (G3) – Pimlico

Race 9 (Saturday, May 19, 2018: 3:25 p.m./ET; 12:25 p.m./PT)

Mile and a sixteenth on turf (fillies and mares, three-years-old and upward)

The Gallorette (G3) is one of seven stakes races on the Preakness Day card at Pimlico. Let’s get to the analysis, beginning with the rail post position:

#1 LAKE PONCHATRAIN has won 10 of 28 dirt starts and is two-for-four on wet tracks, meaning she will be positivity affected if this race is moved to the main track. However, her best runs have come going one turn. Mixed feelings if the race is moved to dirt.

#2 BROOKS HOUSE has run almost all of her career races on turf, including her most recent, where the daughter MIZZEN MAST won a Keeneland allowance race by a nose. However, others in here are a bit classier.

#3 ULTRA BRAT was a ‘no show’ in The Jenny Wiley (G1), where she finished well behind the winner at odds of 35/1. She is versatile and can run on dirt or turf, though her Beyer speed figures are much higher on turf than dirt. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, which adds to any appeal she has.

#4 STALLION HEIRESS most recently finished third in a minor stake at Aqueduct. Her lone graded stakes try resulted in a poor effort in the Edgewood (G3) on Kentucky Derby Day 2017.  Expect her to go to the lead as she really only has one way to go.

#5 CAMBODIA won this race last year in addition to a pair of Grade 2 turf stakes at Del Mar this summer. In her most recent start, she finished sixth, four lengths behind the winner in the Jenny Wiley (G1), while returning from a five month break. Maybe she needed the aforementioned run and her trainer wins at a 29% clip in similar second off the layoff scenarios.

#6 BLESSED SILENCE (FR) is another one that does her best work on turf. In fact, she has turf pedigree on the top and bottom side of her pedigree and will likely scratch if the race comes off the lawn. In her first U.S. race last month at Aqueduct, she ran third in an allowance optional claimer for trainer Christophe Clement.

#7 SPECIAL EVENT went gate to wire in an allowance race at Laurel Park earlier this month in her turf debut. She wheels back quickly off that career best effort for this race, which is her stakes debut.

#8 ELYSEA’S WORLD (IRE) won the Suwannee River (G3) in February and makes her first start since then. She has a number of in-the-money runs and a couple of wins against graded stakes company and is the one to beat…if the race is not moved to the main track.

SELECTIONS

1. #8 ELYSEA’S WORLD – Two bullet works coming into this.
2. #5 CAMBODIA – Defending champ.
3. #3 ULTRA BRAT – Like the jock switch.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #1 LAKE PONCHATRAIN – A longshot to consider only if race is taken off the turf.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make an exacta box on my top two picks as well as a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$15 Exacta Box: #5 CAMBODIA and #8 ELYSEA’S WORLD ($30).

$20 WIN: #8 ELYSEA’S WORLD

 

(Bankroll at -$454.50 after 2018 Week #7 Based on $50 Wagers; +$12.40 last Newsletter).

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