Race 10 (Saturday, April 7, 2018: 5:55 p.m./ET; 2:55 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)
The Wood Memorial (G2) is the most prestigious three-year-old race run at Aqueduct. Along with a Grade 2 victory on the resume, the winner of this race will also earn 100 points to the Kentucky Derby (G1). Let’s analyze the field, beginning with the inside post position:
#1 HEARTFULLOFSTARS broke his maiden over a sloppy track at Santa Anita last time out in his fifth lifetime start. This is an awfully tough spot to be facing winners for the first time and keep in mind he has yet to win over a fast track. Also jot down that two starts ago this guy finished over five lengths behind #8 RESTORING HOPE. Might not be good enough to win this.
#2 FIRENZE FIRE was a distant fourth behind #5 ENTICED and #4 OLD TIME REVIVAL in the Gotham (G3) on March 10 and will need to improve off of that effort. His last win came three starts ago over this track in the Jerome Stakes. The Champagne (G1) winner had good form as a 2-year-old in 2017 but will need to run faster than he has been this year to win this race.
#3 EVALUATOR adds blinkers for trainer Michael Dilger after a nose loss in January against New York-bred stakes competition. Another one that needs to run a career best effort to have a shot at the top prize.
#4 OLD TIME REVIVAL ran a big one at 35/1 in the Gotham (G3), finishing second (beaten three lengths) to #5 ENTICED. However, his only win came sprinting seven furlongs at Laurel last December. Signs indicate another exotics placing may be his ceiling.
#5 ENTICED is a well-bred Godolphin homebred, by MEDAGLIA D’ORO out of the Grade I winning mare IT’S TRICKY. His last win was an easy two-and-three-quarter length victory over #4 OLD TIME REVIVAL and #2 FIRENZE FIRE in the Gotham (G3) last month. His only off the board finish was a loss to Florida Derby winner AUDIBLE in the Holy Bull (G2). The one to beat.
#6 CATCH TWENTY TWO won his first career race in a maiden $50K claimer on December 17. Claimed out of that race, he had the unfortunate luck of losing the rider in his most recent start, a starter allowance race on March 17. Now he is taking a massive step up in class. Overmatched.
#7 KING ZACHARY was a $550,000 sale purchase who romped to win by almost eight lengths in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on March 17. He wheels back relatively quickly for the Dale Romans stable after that debut win, which was his third lifetime start. The good news is if he takes another step forward, he could pull off a mild upset in this race. Consider.
#8 RESTORING HOPE was an easy winner of a maiden special weight race on February 2 and has not run since. Was entered to run in the Sunland Derby (G3) for trainer Bob Baffert, but was excluded due to an overflow of entries. This son of GIANT’S CAUSEWAY has reportedly been working very well including his most recent five-furlong drill in which he earned the rare ‘breezing’ rank, not something Southern California clockers often give a horse. Must take a second look.
#9 VINO ROSSO was a distant fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) behind Bluegrass (G2) contenders QUIP and FLAMEAWAY and was third behind the aforementioned rival in the Sam. F. Davis (G3). Broke his maiden over this track.
SELECTIONS
- #5 ENTICED – One to beat.
- #8 RESTORING HOPE – Team Baffert.
- #7 KING ZACHARY – Getting better with racing experience.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #9 VINO ROSSO – Might appreciate the return to NY.
WAGERING STRATEGY
I’ll key my top pick in exactas over my second and third selections.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$25 Exacta: #5 ENTICED over #7 KING ZACHARY and #8 RESTORING HOPE ($50).
(Bankroll at -$340.00 after 2018 Week #5 Based on $50 Wagers; -$200.00 last Newsletter).
The post $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2) – Aqueduct appeared first on TVG - HORSE RACING INSIDER.
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