Race 9 (Saturday, April 7, 2018: 6:30 p.m./ET; 3:30 p.m./PT)
Mile and an eighth on the main track (three-year-olds)
The San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita last month resulted in a spine-tingling stretch drive between BOLT D’ORO and the Bob Baffert trained MCKIZNIE. This Saturday, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) appears like a showdown between two uber-talented three-year-olds: BOLT D’ORO and the Baffert budding new star, JUSTIFY. Will Baffert be able to turn the tables on BOLT D’ORO, who was placed first via DQ in the San Felipe (G2), or will owner/trainer Mick Ruis defeat Baffert again with BOLT D’ORO? Let’s attempt to answer that question:
#1 INSTILLED REGARD won the Lecomte (G3) on January 13 at the Fair Grounds and came back five weeks later to run fourth, beaten by two lengths, in the Risen Star (G2). The third place finisher that day, NOBLE INDY, came back to win the Louisiana Derby (G1) last week. He freshens up for this race and has been working strongly over the Santa Anita main track, where he broke his maiden. Talented colt was purchased for $1,050,000 and gets the services of Joel Rosario.
#2 ORBIT RAIN finished five lengths behind talented turf runner and next out winner RIVER BOYNE in a maiden special weight on grass. Was never competitive in two previous dirt efforts. Can’t see him winning it.
#3 BOLT D’ORO finished head and head with MCKINZIE after a thrilling stretch run in the San Felipe (G2), which was his first start off a four-month layoff. He faces the well regarded #6 JUSTIFY in this spot, but keep in mind this one was super impressive as a two-year-old when winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Frontrunner (G1). One of the big boys signed on.
#4 JIMMY CHILA has yet to break his maiden in four lifetime starts. In his past two starts, he ran third and was never in contention to win the race. Even though he finished behind Wood Memorial (G2) contenders HEARTFULLOFSTARS and RESTORING HOPE in both aforementioned maiden losses, he’s facing even tougher company in this race.
#5 PEPE TONO, supplemented to this race by his owners for $20,000, finished almost eight lengths behind #6 JUSTIFY in an allowance race last time out. Obviously he has a lot of ground to make up on that rival and he’ll also have to deal with new shooters like #1 INSTILLED REGARD, #3 BOLT D’ORO and #7 CORE BELIEFS. In too tough.
#6 JUSTIFY broke his maiden and earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure, followed by a two-turn allowance romp in which he earned a 101 Beyer. The way things have gone so far, he might be ‘the real deal,’ but he faces a whole new level of competition now. We’ll find out just how good he is.
#7 CORE BELIEFS broke his maiden first time routing on March 8 and defeated LONGDEN, who came back to win his next start. Clearly this guy has wanted to route all along and with a race under his belt going two turns, he may be able to improve. That said, he faces some toughies in here.
SELECTIONS
- #6 JUSTIFY – Generational colt?
- #3 BOLT D’ORO – Oozes talent.
- #1 INSTILLED REGARD – Has ability.
LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #7 CORE BELIEFS – Looked great routing for the first time.
WAGERING STRATEGY
To maximize value in a race with two very heavy favorites, I’ll try to beat one of them in the exacta & play a horse who may offer excellent value in the win pool.
BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)
$15 Exactas: #6 JUSTIFY over #1 INSTILLED REGARD and #7 CORE BELIEFS ($30).
$20 Win: #1 INSTILLED REGARD
(Bankroll at -$340.00 after 2018 Week #5 Based on $50 Wagers; -$200.00 last Newsletter).
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